Tuesday, August 30th

When I saved this document on my computer, I accidentally typed “NFL Edge Week 1” before realizing this is till the MLB Edge. Wow – apparently I’m revved up for the start of NFL, and for the first Edge article next week.
We should keep in mind, however, that MLB is still going on! In fact, we should especially keep this in mind, as many people are already too focused on Week 1 of NFL, and are paying less attention to their NFL preparation. This opens the door for us to gain an additional edge, and to rack up some MLB bucks along the way.
I am in the midst of wrapping up my newest NFL RotoAcademy course and putting together the article templates for our new NFL content, so I will try to be more direct and “to the point” today than normal (And the crowd cheers!). But of course, we’ll see how I do in that aim…
We have a typical Tuesday night, with 15 games on the slate, so I am going to break things down in a tried and tested manner – starting with Obvious Pitchers, following that with Under-The-Radar Arms, and then looking at my favorite pitchers to pick on.
Ready.
Set.
Go.
Obvious Pitchers (Some I Like…Some I Don’t)

Max Scherzer – RHP – at Phillies
As always, this is a “you don’t need a whole lot of help from me” spot. With Clayton Kershaw on the shelf, Scherzer is quite probably the best pitcher in the Majors. He’s facing what may be the worst offense in baseball. Of course, most of my fellow DFS writers would follow up that statement by saying something like, “Don’t overthink things. Just use Scherzer!” As you know from reading me all season, however, you will never find me telling you to “not overthink things,” or to blindly use the chalk pitcher. We are still going to look for a place where we can carve out an edge by fading Scherzer – though I will say that Scherzer’s price is prohibitive enough today that I’m not certain his ownership will be as high as the spot warrants, and it might end up being a sneaky contrarian spot to roster Scherzer, simply because many others will end up deciding they cannot afford him.
J.A. Happ – LHP – at Orioles
I am writing these up in the order the games are listed on the MLB.com Probable Pitchers page (which is sorted by start time). I want to clarify that, because I don’t want you to think that I am writing these up in some sort of “rankings of the amount I like each guy” order. Happ has become a far more stellar DFS option than we could ever have predicted, and while he probably actually belongs in the “under-the-radar arms” section below, that would imply more fully that I endorse the Happ play. While Happ warrants mention, however, I’m not sold on the idea that I actually like and/or endorse the play. What I do like about Happ is that the Orioles quietly rank 27th in the Majors in wOBA against left-handed pitching (on a side note: I imagine a playoff series against the Red Sox – Price, Pomeranz, and E-Rod – is the Orioles’ worst nightmare). I also like that Happ has a strikeout rate over 23% to right-handed batters.
Again: this actually belongs in the section below. I like this as a risky, but solid tourney option, as Happ could easily grab 25 points for you. But this is still, of course, a dangerous Orioles team.
Julio Teheran – RHP – v Padres
Picking on the Padres with right-handed pitching is a favorite pastime of ours by this point, with the Padres now having dropped all the way down to 30th in the Majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching, and sitting at an unsightly 24.8% strikeout rate (the second-worst mark in baseball). Teheran is traditionally a much sharper pitcher at home, and while I fully expect Scherzer to outscore Teheran today, the price gap between the two actually leads me to like Teheran more in a point-per-dollar sense. Of course, this comes with the caveat that Teheran’s string of poor performances lately makes him a tourney-only option. This seems silly to say with Teheran pitching at home against the Padres, especially as there is no discernible reason why Teheran should be struggling at the moment, but the struggles have been consistent enough lately that we should still exercise some level of caution.
Kyle Hendricks – RHP – v Pirates
Hendricks hasn’t done anything in particularly flashy fashion this year – notching strikeouts at a rate only slightly above average – but he has combined that with “nothing flashy” with some of the best hard-contact-suppressing stuff in the Majors. This has put him in a position to continually put hitters in a poor position for positive outputs, while also being one of the most consistently solid arms in DFS. Right now, I am not too excited about the prospect of picking on the Pirates, as they have started to come alive at the plate lately, and as such, Hendricks is not a guy I would go out of my way to roster. Additionally, Hendricks’ upside is not quite to a “tourney play” level in this matchup. Having said all that, however, he is a much safer play in cash games than the man listed above him, and he should have no problem picking up at least 16 points, with solid upside for around 25.
Cole Hamels – LHP – v Mariners
Speaking of teams that are quietly underwhelming against left-handed pitching…
The Mariners rank 22nd in wOBA against left-handed pitching this year, with a strikeout rate of 21.7%. In fact, a funny (or…not-so-funny) story:
This last weekend, at the DraftKings live final, I had a team in the morning that had Jose Quintana against the Mariners (and also had five hitters who combined for six home runs…). I ended up moving off that team, in part because it always seems scary to roster a pitcher against this Mariners team, regardless of the hand that pitcher uses to throw the ball. Not only did Quintana put up over 30 points that night, but he also went under-the-radar enough that I don’t think anyone rostered him in that tournament at all.
All that to say: Cole Hamels – who has been lights-out lately – not only shapes up as a solid play today, but I bet you can get him for under 7% ownership in tourneys.
The Mariners are also tied with the Rockies and Red Sox for the ninth-best ISO in baseball against left-handed pitching, which highlights the fact that they do present some danger. But all things considered, I like this as a sneaky, high-upside spot for a couple thousand less than you would have to spend on Scherzer.
Masahiro Tanaka – RHP – at Royals
Predictive statistics tell us we should not expect what Tanaka has been doing lately to continue. In fact, if anything, we should pick on him with low-strikeout left-handed batters, as Tanaka allows above-average hard contact to batters from both sides of the plate, and especially to lefties. But there are also a lot of things to like about the way Tanaka matches up with this current version of the Royals, which is enough to put me on him today. Because the Royals have very little power, and because this park does not play well to power, I am very much a fan of Tanaka’s ability to “pitch,” rather than just “throwing,” which makes me comfortable in assuming he can work out of any jams he gets himself into. He is a solid bet for at least 20 points today, with upside for 25 or more.
Johnny Cueto – RHP – v Diamondbacks
You know full well how I feel about Cueto. You also know how I feel about using wOBA as a foundation for picking our pitchers. But I also have to point out that at AT&T Park against right-handed hitters this year, Cueto is allowing a wOBA of only .228 – which is an absolutely incredible number. Because so little of what Cueto does makes sense in a statistical sense – because he succeeds by “changing things up” on the mound more than, and better than, any other pitcher – it may be worth it to simply look at something as basic as “wOBA allowed.” Quite frankly, we are deep enough into the season that I am willing to believe those numbers are very real at AT&T Park against righties – and considering the DBacks are a nearly all-righty lineup (and heck, considering Cueto’s wOBA allowed at home to lefties is still solid, at .296), I would very much be on board with rostering him today. I do not plan to roster him, as I don’t want to ruin this quality spot for you if you choose to roster him yourself, but I actually (for once) like Cueto a lot today.
Under-The-Radar Arms

Adam Wainwright – RHP – at Brewers
It was just a few weeks ago that Wainwright was putting up 21.3 points against the Padres, and 24.4 points against the Brewers (sandwiched, in fact, between a pair of 30+ point games against the Marlins and Pirates). Since then, Wainwright has topped ten points in only two of his last six starts, while notching a best score of only 15.1. On the surface, it seems that part of this is attributable to the fact that Wainwright has “pitched much better at home” this year, though his advanced stats are actually pretty similar between his home starts and his road starts. This leads me to believe that his poor road performances have been more bad luck than anything else, and it also leaves me liking him as a play against the Brewers (the team that strikes out against right-handed pitching more than any other team in baseball) at only $6,900. If you are wanting to build a competitive tourney roster with DK’s tight pricing, you will almost certainly need to find some value at pitcher. And this is one of the two best spots to look today.
Tyler Anderson – LHP – v Dodgers
The other best spot to look today is Tyler Anderson. The fact that he is priced at only $5,500 is crazy – even at Coors. What’s crazier, however, is that he will still go low-owned! We have talked about a few different teams being “quietly bad” against left-handed pitching. You know who has the worst wOBA in all of Major League Baseball against lefties? It’s not the Braves anymore. It’s not the Phillies. That’s right – it’s the Los Angeles Dodgers. Anderson has started nine games at Coors this year. His worst start brought in 10.1 DraftKings points – which would still be a solid point-per-dollar showing. His second-worst outing was against the mighty Blue Jays…with 15.5 points. Seriously – a guy whose worst game at home was a 2x salary multiplier, and whose second-worst game was a 3x salary multiplier…versus the worst team in baseball against his handedness? And he’ll be low-owned? Yes, please.
Note: Because Anderson should be contrarian – given that no one wants to roster pitchers at Coors – and because many people will be unable to afford Scherzer, an Anderson/Scherzer pairing could give you a lot of upside at really low ownership. Just something to think about as you work through today’s slate.
My Favorite Pitchers To Pick On Today

Blue Jays v Ubaldo Jimenez
The normal caveats apply here:
Ubaldo is not as bad as people tend to think. Much of his “badness” comes from his lack of control, which is great for his opponents scoring runs, but is not all that great for helping you to rack up a bunch of fantasy points at once. He also tosses an unexpected gem from time to time.
With that said, the Blue Jays should be able to pound out hits in this game, and nearly anyone in this lineup has the ability to go yard as well. This is a great ballpark for the Jays, and there is enough to like on this slate that we could get decently low ownership (for Blue Jays bats, at least) by looking here.
Tigers v Anthony Ranaudo
The Tigers are probably the premier offense to stack today – and after they disappointed against James Shields yesterday (and, for that matter, after they were severely under-owned against Shields yesterday), we should be able to grab them at really low ownership marks today. Ranaudo has struck out only 8.6% of the right-handed batters he has faced in his career (which raises the value on someone like Justin Upton, who would be far more valuable if he struck out less often), he allows really low ground ball numbers, and his hard-hit rates are enormous. While I typically preach against selling out too heavily with a stack against a fly ball pitcher, Ranaudo’s low strikeouts to both righties and lefties shifts the needle a bit on that today, as I will take a few more fly balls for all the contact the Tigers are likely to make.
Indians v Andrew Albers
Albers – a left-handed pitcher – will make his first start since 2013, as the Twins try to put him in a position to succeed against a dangerous Indians lineup that is quite a bit less dangerous against left-handed pitching (see: performance against Hector Santiago yesterday). In his career, he has done a great job keeping the ball on the ground against lefties, and his wOBA allowed to lefties (across 20 innings pitched to them) is .264. Righties, on the other hand, have a solid .334 wOBA against Albers, and more importantly, they have struck out against him at only a 10.9% clip. There are not too many right-handed bats I like to target on the Tribe (Rajai Davis is not as good as his sporadic outbursts make it seem; Carlos Santana is a far better hitter from the left side of the plate; Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor are not massive-upside plays from either side; and so on), but I do love Mike Napoli against a low-strikeout lefty. Albers has done a solid job in his career suppressing hard contact to righties, so definitely keep that in mind. But “Napoli against a lefty” makes about as much hard contact as any hitter in baseball…with the big issue being that contact is sometimes hard to come by for him. That should not be the case today, making him a really intriguing play.
Twins v Josh Tomlin
Someday, Tomlin is going to get knocked around by some left-handed batters, as lefties routinely smoke the ball against him. That is still not happening, however, which leaves me shrugging my shoulders and shaking my head.
Honestly, the Twins do not line up all that well against Tomlin. We have Brian Dozier, who doesn’t have great power, but he hits so many fly balls that he knocks plenty out of the park (which, of course, is offset by his perpetually disappointing batting average). We also have Miguel Sano, who has about as much raw power as any hitter in baseball, but who also strikes out about as much as any hitter in baseball. Who else? Joe Mauer is a great hitter, but not for DFS. Robbie Grossman and Eddie Rosario are also fine, but they each strike out a ton as well. Max Kepler has been awesome this year, but a lot of underlying numbers scream regression. Basically – as much as I typically aim to employ the “pick on Tomlin” strategy – I would be likelier to take a full stack with the Twins (and hope Tomlin gets knocked around altogether) than to “pick and choose. Because Tomlin has slightly below-average strikeout stuff and allows lots of hard contact, there is definitely a defense for using the Twins. It’s just really difficult to diagnose who on this team will have a big game – making this a solid spot to simply “load up on” or “stay away from.”
Red Sox v Jake Odorizzi
I would generally stay away from the lefties on the Red Sox (excluding David Ortiz), as Odorizzi has continued his trend of excellence against left-handed batters. But “on the road against righties,” Odorizzi is a totally different story. His strikeout rate to righties on the road is only 15.9% (17.6% career), his ground balls sit at 34.9% (34.2% career), and while his hard contact is not out of control, this is another situation – similar to Cueto pitching at AT&T – where we have enough consistent data to rely on wOBA a bit more than normal. This year, Odorizzi has allowed a whopping .374 wOBA on the road to righties. Last year was .342, and the year before was .396. Mookie Betts is obviously one of the best plays in baseball any time you can fit him on your roster against a non-elite pitcher, but I would not be against using any other righty in the top five spots in this order, nor would I be against loading up here with a stack.
Cubs v Chad Kuhl
Kuhl story, Hansel.
Kuhl has been getting tagged pretty hard by lefties this year, with a 15.8% strikeout rate, a low ground ball rate, and a 33.3% hard-hit rate.
The guys who line up best against Kuhl are Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist, as each guy does a quality job against pitchers who profile similarly to Kuhl. I also would not be averse to taking on a stack in this spot, however, as there are plenty of reasons to expect the Cubs to go off for a big game at home in this spot. This is not my favorite stack on the day, but it’s certainly one that is very much worth looking toward.
Cardinals v Wily Peralta
Matt Carpenter and Brandon Moss are probably my two favorite plays on this slate. Of course, I have said that plenty of times before when those plays did not actually end up working out, but against a pitcher who has a hard time striking out lefties (a big boon to Moss and his 29% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching!), and who allows tons of line drives and hard contact, you cannot help but get excited. Moss and Carpenter generate hard contact about as often as any hitters in baseball, and with this game being played in one of the best home run parks in the league, I would gladly take my chances with either of them. I also like a full stack here, and I would not mind taking a mini stack, either – filling in one or two guys between Carpenter and Moss.
Angels v Tim Adleman
Let me go on a rant for a second.
Nothing you could possibly say would make me agree the Angels stack (at 20% ownership in high-dollar tourneys) was a good play last night. The Angels entered the night with the fifth-worst ISO in the Majors against right-handed pitching. They play in one of the worst home run parks in baseball. And they were facing an extreme fly ball pitcher. That is a recipe for “lots of fly ball outs” if I have ever heard one.
One of the main things that drives ownership – in high-dollar tourneys, in particular – however, is Vegas line movement. And the Angels-Reds line moved quite a bit late in the day to show a lot of sharps on the Angels. And that is how I ended up cashing in every tourney last night except the $1k on DraftKings, where I fell two spots out of the money (I even cashed into the second tier of payouts in some tourneys – and still missed cashing in the $1k!).
Did it work out for those who followed the line movements? Absolutely. But all the time, I see ownership shift based on line movements, and I feel this play (when done blindly) loses money more often than not. That’s just my take. I think paying attention to the line movements is important, but it does not tell us everything we need to know. For example: the line movement last night said Shoemaker was more valuable than where the Vegas line originally put him (which we all knew anyway), and it said the Angels were likely to win. It did not indicate “the Angels – with the fifth-worst ISO, in one of the worst home run parks in baseball – will have five different guys hit a home run.” #EndRant.
I bring that up partly because I do want to mention that paying attention to line movements can be valuable. Last night, I nearly moved onto Kole Calhoun and Mike Trout because of that, as I liked their chances of racking up fantasy points even outside of home runs, given the way they profiled against Straily. But I also bring that up to say: over time, knowing the underlying numbers (and what will yield positive results more often than not) is always more valuable – even if it sometimes leads to frustrating situations like last night.
Finally, I bring that up because Adleman presents a solid spot for the Angels. I believe I said in my article yesterday that I liked Trout and Pujols, but that they were both a bit “all or nothing” in that matchup. Today, against a pitcher with a low strikeout rate to righties, a high hard-hit rate to righties, and an average enough batted ball profile that these guys can bang out some doubles even if they don’t send the ball out of the yard, I like both those guys again. I also like C.J. Cron, Jefry Marte, and Kole Calhoun. Will all five of those guys hit a home run again? Doubtful. But at least rostering them puts you in a position where you can rack up points even if the home runs aren’t coming!
#EndArticle
#SeeYouAtTheTop
ABOUT THE AUTHOR

JMToWin