All about hypo's, continued.

This is fairly unorganized. This will feature the majority of scenarios in which I prove that Hypo's provide a better win chance than not hypo-ing.
To be clear, all of these percentages are plus or minus talking/scumhunts and reads, as those are impossible to measure with a number. This also only cover scenarios that would be different if you were to hypo. Scenarios where hypo's and not hypo-ing are the same are not included, but note that because they are the same that there is no downside to the hypo.

1) IF COP DIES N2
  a) If pr is un cc, and report wasn't on pr/dead, then you have 2 un cc for 5 left, meaning a 66% chance of maf lynch d2 (2 maf/3 possible choices) and a 50%(1 clear, 1 maf/2 possible) chance of maf lynch d3, with guaranteed clear on d3. This is better than w/o hypo, where you would have a 50% chance of maf lynch d2, and a 3 way no clear d3 if you didn't lose immediately. Ouch.
With hypo: 66% into a 50% next day. Without: 50% into a 33% next day. Hypo ~ 16% more wins in this scenario.
  b) If report was on maf, then you lynch him d2, without having to reveal pr. This means a 1/16 of maf killing bomb for town win(1/4 chance of there being a bomb, 1/4 of him killing bomb). This also means you'll have a clear d3. This is better than w/o hypo, where you wouldn't know that cop got a maf (if cop didn't soft), and would be stuck with possible pr-cc's on a 5-way no clear.
With hypo: 100% into a 50%, with 6.25% of winning in between. Without: 50% into a 20-33%. Hypo ~ 44% more wins in this scenario.

2) MAFIA's POSSIBLE GAINS
Technically it is possible to give information to mafia with a hypo. In this block, false report means when someone that hypo's declares maf is inno (40%), or declares inno is maf (60%). If you read earlier, this is why most blues should just use inno. I will use the 40% value for calculations, because that is what town should be doing.
  a) If one person gives false report: 40% chance of a 33% chance maf killing cop(6 people, 1 cop report, 2 maf, 3 blue reports), as opposed to normal 25% chance.
     .4(.33) = .132, .6(.25) = .15, .15 - .132 = .018 = 1.8% greater chance of cop kill if hypo.
  b) If two people give false report, 16% chance of a 50% chance of maf killing cop.
     .16(.5) = .08, .84(.25) = .21, .21 - .08 = .13 = 13% greater chance of killing cop. Note that this is rare.
  c) If all give false report, 100% chance of maf kill cop.
     .064(1) = .064, .936(.25) = .234, .234 - .064 = .17 = 17% greater chance of cop kill. Note that this is very rare.

3) TOTALS
All the totals. Numbers are in order of when calculated above.
Win % chance with hypo - Win % chance without hypo =  (likelihood of scenario happening x % increase/decrease in win %) (for all)
[(.66)(.5) - (.5)(.33)] + .5[(1)(.5) - (.5)(.33)] + .5[(1)(.5) - (.5)(.2)] +.0625 + [(.4)(.33) - (.6)(.25)] + [(.16)(.5) - (.84)(.25)] + [(.064)(1) - (.936)(.25)] /(all scenarios) = .069 = 6.9% increase in chance of victory for town, over maf, on average, +- scumhunts/reads.

This means you'd win on average 6.9% more games with hypo. Now, go out and hypo my friends.