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- to calculate the probability, you have to think about all the possible ways he could have gotten the 3 pieces in 6 or fewer kills. there's 15 such combinations. they are:
- kill 4 top route, get drop
- kill 1 middle route, get drop
- kill 1 bottom route, get drop
- kill 3 top route, get drop
- kill 1 middle route, get drop
- kill 2 bottom route, get drop
- following that pattern:
- 3
- 2
- 1
- 2
- 1
- 3
- 2
- 2
- 2
- 2
- 3
- 1
- 1
- 1
- 4
- 1
- 4
- 1
- 1
- 2
- 3
- 1
- 3
- 2
- 3
- 1
- 1
- 2
- 1
- 2
- 2
- 2
- 1
- 1
- 1
- 2
- 1
- 2
- 1
- 1
- 1
- 1
- so then you have to calculate the probability for each of these cases. doing that is very simple. for the first case, it is
- [1-(9/10)^4]*(1/10)*(1/10)=0.00349
- the second case is
- [1-(9/10)^3]*(1/10)*[1-(9/10)^2]=0.005149
- the third case comes out to be the same as case 2, so another 0.005149
- case 4 = 0.005149
- case 5 = 0.006859
- case 6 = 0.005149
- case 7 = 0.00349
- case 8 = 0.00349
- case 9 = 0.005149
- case 10 = 0.005149
- so these are the cases for exactly 6 skills. thus, the probability of getting 3 pieces in exactly six kills is the sum of these, or 0.048223.
- I don't feel like doing the rest of the calculations, but you get the idea.
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