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Jul 30th, 2014
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  1. to calculate the probability, you have to think about all the possible ways he could have gotten the 3 pieces in 6 or fewer kills. there's 15 such combinations. they are:
  2.  
  3. kill 4 top route, get drop
  4. kill 1 middle route, get drop
  5. kill 1 bottom route, get drop
  6.  
  7. kill 3 top route, get drop
  8. kill 1 middle route, get drop
  9. kill 2 bottom route, get drop
  10.  
  11. following that pattern:
  12.  
  13. 3
  14. 2
  15. 1
  16.  
  17. 2
  18. 1
  19. 3
  20.  
  21. 2
  22. 2
  23. 2
  24.  
  25. 2
  26. 3
  27. 1
  28.  
  29. 1
  30. 1
  31. 4
  32.  
  33. 1
  34. 4
  35. 1
  36.  
  37. 1
  38. 2
  39. 3
  40.  
  41. 1
  42. 3
  43. 2
  44.  
  45. 3
  46. 1
  47. 1
  48.  
  49. 2
  50. 1
  51. 2
  52.  
  53. 2
  54. 2
  55. 1
  56.  
  57. 1
  58. 1
  59. 2
  60.  
  61. 1
  62. 2
  63. 1
  64.  
  65. 1
  66. 1
  67. 1
  68.  
  69. so then you have to calculate the probability for each of these cases. doing that is very simple. for the first case, it is
  70.  
  71. [1-(9/10)^4]*(1/10)*(1/10)=0.00349
  72.  
  73. the second case is
  74. [1-(9/10)^3]*(1/10)*[1-(9/10)^2]=0.005149
  75.  
  76. the third case comes out to be the same as case 2, so another 0.005149
  77.  
  78. case 4 = 0.005149
  79.  
  80. case 5 = 0.006859
  81.  
  82. case 6 = 0.005149
  83.  
  84. case 7 = 0.00349
  85.  
  86. case 8 = 0.00349
  87.  
  88. case 9 = 0.005149
  89.  
  90. case 10 = 0.005149
  91.  
  92. so these are the cases for exactly 6 skills. thus, the probability of getting 3 pieces in exactly six kills is the sum of these, or 0.048223.
  93.  
  94. I don't feel like doing the rest of the calculations, but you get the idea.
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