Projected Strike Probability on Swings

#######################################################################################################
# Compare the projected strike zone probabilities for each of the four versions of movement on swings #
#######################################################################################################

#############
# LIBRARIES #
#############

library(RODBC);

####################
# ADDITIONAL FILES #
####################

source("Movement Scripts/Mvt_Fcns.r")

########
# MAIN #
########

# Player's name
first <- 'Julio';
last <- 'Urias';

# Year
year <- '2016';

# Pitch type
pitch_type <- 'CU';

# Batters' handedness
stand <- 'R';

# Set up the database name
database <- paste("MLB",year,sep="");

# Set the pitches that resulted in contact
contact_cases <- "(des = 'In play, no out' OR
                   des = 'In play, out(s)' OR
                   des = 'In play, run(s)' OR
                   des = 'Foul' OR
                   des = 'Foul (Runner Going)' OR
                   des = 'Foul Bunt' OR
                   des = 'Foul Tip')";

# Set the pitches that resulted in a swing and miss
miss_cases <- "(des = 'Swinging Strike' OR
                des = 'Swinging Pitchout' OR
                des = 'Missed Bunt' OR
                des = 'Swinging Strike (Blocked)')"

# Open the channel
channel <- odbcConnect(database);

# Set the query for pitches that resulted in contact
Contact_Query = paste("SELECT ax, ay, az, vx0, vy0, vz0, x0, y0, z0
                      FROM pitches WHERE pitch_type = '",pitch_type,"' AND
                      ",contact_cases," AND ab_id IN
                      (SELECT ab_id FROM atbats WHERE
                      pitcher = (SELECT eliasid FROM players WHERE first = '",
                      first,"' AND last = '",last,"') AND stand = '",stand,"')",sep="");

# Download the contact data
Contact <- sqlQuery(channel,Contact_Query);

# Close the channel
close(channel);

# Set the number of points in y at which to sample
Ny <- 100;

# Track the probability of the extrapolation being a strike
Ct_Pitch_Prb_PFX <- Pitch_Track_PFX(Contact,Ny,stand);
Ct_Pitch_Prb_PFX_Drag <- Pitch_Track_PFX_Drag(Contact,Ny,stand);
Ct_Pitch_Prb_W <- Pitch_Track_W(Contact,Ny,stand);
Ct_Pitch_Prb_W_Drag <- Pitch_Track_W_Drag(Contact,Ny,stand);

# Average the values for each array
Np <- length(Contact$x0);

# Plot the average probability by distance for contact
y_inc <- seq(17/12,55,length=Ny);
plot(0,0,,xlim=c(17/12,55),ylim=c(0,1),xaxs='i',yaxs='i',xlab="Distance from Home Plate (feet)", ylab="Called Strike Probability", main=paste(first," ",last," (",year,"): Contact on ",pitch_type," v. ",stand,"HB",sep=""));
lines(y_inc,colMeans(Ct_Pitch_Prb_PFX),col="red",pch=20,xlim=c(17/12,55),ylim=c(0,1),xaxs='i',yaxs='i',xaxt='n',yaxt='n',xlab='',ylab='');
lines(y_inc,colMeans(Ct_Pitch_Prb_PFX_Drag),col="blue",pch=20,xlim=c(17/12,55),ylim=c(0,1),xaxs='i',yaxs='i',xaxt='n',yaxt='n',xlab='',ylab='');
lines(y_inc,colMeans(Ct_Pitch_Prb_W),col="green",pch=20,xlim=c(17/12,55),ylim=c(0,1),xaxs='i',yaxs='i',xaxt='n',yaxt='n',xlab='',ylab='');
lines(y_inc,colMeans(Ct_Pitch_Prb_W_Drag),col="black",pch=20,xlim=c(17/12,55),ylim=c(0,1),xaxs='i',yaxs='i',xaxt='n',yaxt='n',xlab='',ylab='');
legend(2,0.205,c('PFX','PFX D','W','W D'),lty=c(1,1,1,1),lwd=c(1,1,1,1),col=c('red','blue','green','black'));

# Open the channel
channel <- odbcConnect(database);

# Set the query for pitches missed
Miss_Query = paste("SELECT ax, ay, az, vx0, vy0, vz0, x0, y0, z0
                   FROM pitches WHERE pitch_type = '",pitch_type,"' AND
                   ",miss_cases," AND ab_id IN
                   (SELECT ab_id FROM atbats WHERE
                   pitcher = (SELECT eliasid FROM players WHERE first = '",
                   first,"' AND last = '",last,"') AND stand = '",stand,"')",sep="");

# Download the pitches miss data
Miss <- sqlQuery(channel,Miss_Query);

# Close the channel
close(channel);

# Track the probability of the extrapolation being a strike
Ms_Pitch_Prb_PFX <- Pitch_Track_PFX(Miss,Ny,stand);
Ms_Pitch_Prb_PFX_Drag <- Pitch_Track_PFX_Drag(Miss,Ny,stand);
Ms_Pitch_Prb_W <- Pitch_Track_W(Miss,Ny,stand);
Ms_Pitch_Prb_W_Drag <- Pitch_Track_W_Drag(Miss,Ny,stand);

windows();

# Plot the average probability by distance for misses
plot(0,0,,xlim=c(17/12,55),ylim=c(0,1),xaxs='i',yaxs='i',xlab="Distance from Home Plate (feet)", ylab="Called Strike Probability", main=paste(first," ",last," (",year,"): Misses on ",pitch_type," v. ",stand,"HB",sep=""));
lines(y_inc,colMeans(Ms_Pitch_Prb_PFX),col="red",pch=20,xlim=c(17/12,55),ylim=c(0,1),xaxs='i',yaxs='i',xaxt='n',yaxt='n',xlab='',ylab='');
lines(y_inc,colMeans(Ms_Pitch_Prb_PFX_Drag),col="blue",pch=20,xlim=c(17/12,55),ylim=c(0,1),xaxs='i',yaxs='i',xaxt='n',yaxt='n',xlab='',ylab='');
lines(y_inc,colMeans(Ms_Pitch_Prb_W),col="green",pch=20,xlim=c(17/12,55),ylim=c(0,1),xaxs='i',yaxs='i',xaxt='n',yaxt='n',xlab='',ylab='');
lines(y_inc,colMeans(Ms_Pitch_Prb_W_Drag),col="black",pch=20,xlim=c(17/12,55),ylim=c(0,1),xaxs='i',yaxs='i',xaxt='n',yaxt='n',xlab='',ylab='');
legend(2,0.205,c('PFX','PFX D','W','W D'),lty=c(1,1,1,1),lwd=c(1,1,1,1),col=c('red','blue','green','black'));