0 ||||| ||||| ||||| ||||| ||||| ||||                                         29

1 ||||| ||||| ||||| ||||| ||||| ||||| ||||| ||||| ||||| ||||| ||||| |||||    60

2 ||||| ||||| ||||| ||||| ||||| ||||| ||||| |||                              38

3 ||||| ||||| ||||| |||||                                                    20

4 |||                                                                        3



150 total


----------------

Probabilites:

----------------

no bombs               =    19.3%

1 bomb                 =    40%

2 bombs                =    25.3%

3 bombs                =    13.3%

4 bombs                =    2% (#thedream)


≥ 1 bomb	       =    80.6%

≥ 2 bombs              =    40.6%

≥ 3 bombs              =    15.3%





ROUTE TIMINGS/PROBABILITY




grave bomb route (first enter to end):  13.2 + 17.6 + 17.6 + 18.1                                               = 66.5


best rng drop route (3) 1.6 + 9.2                                                                               = 10.8

good rng drop route (2,1) (1,2): 1.6 + 9.2 + 4.2 + 9.2                                                          = 24.2

decent rng drop route (1,1,1) (0,2,1) (0,1,2) (1,0,2) (2,0,1) (0,0,3): 1.6 + 9.2 + 4.2 + 9.2 + 4.2 + 9.2        = 37.6

bad rng drop route (4 trips): 1.6 + 9.2 + 4.2 + 9.2 + 4.2 + 9.2 + 4.2 + 9.2                                     = 51.0


grave drop bomb explode for ess: 10.3

bomb rng explode for ess: 32.7

total difference = 22.4


best rng: 10.8 + 22.4  = 33.2 (saves 33.3 seconds)

good rng: 24.4 + 22.4 = 46.8  (saves 19.7 seconds)

decent rng: 37.6 + 22.4 = 60.0  (saves 6.5 seconds)

bad rng: 51.0 + 22.4 = 73.4  (wastes 6.9 seconds)



probability:

best: 15.3%  (≥ 3 bomb drop)

good: 16.26% + 20.44% + 2.97% = 39.67% (drop orders: [1,2+] [2,1+] [0,3+])

decent: 13% + 2(3.95%) + 2(3.14)% + 0.57% = 27.75% (all possible drop orders)

bad: 0.11% + 3(0.61%) + 3(0.76%) + 2.5% = 6.72% (all possible drop orders)




Conclusion:


- 89.44% chance to get any of the non-reset percentages above

- 82.72% chance to gain a 6.5 second advantage over dampe route

- 54.97% chance to gain a 19.7 second advantage

- 15.3% chance to gain a 33.2 second advantage

- 10.56% chance to be at least 20 seconds behind (reset territory)




problems with calculations:

- all probabilies drawn from my own rng testing of bomb drops (only 150 test samples were taken)

- timing is fairly precise but not down to frames (take time results as approximations)

- timing involves fastest (I assume) bottle on b setup next to hess possition (I used SVA's most current setup, no video at the moment)