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- Re: [CT] HZ Model
- Released on 2012-08-12 08:00 GMT
- Email-ID 1585896
- Date 2010-09-22 17:04:37
- From sean.noonan@stratfor.com
- To ct@stratfor.com
- very interesting.
- Fred Burton wrote:
- I don't buy the 90%. Lean more towards 60-70%. I've seen outstanding
- HUMINT coverages which run 180 degrees from OS, combined with SIGINT.
- The other aspect is the Dark Web data mining streams now combined
- w/surveillance logs AND technology like TrapWire. Neither of which very
- few people see.
- The high public figures are disinformation to protect sources and
- methods (foreign liaison channels.)
- The volumnes of granular data for example on Iran or Mexico today
- out-pace the OS.
- Aaron Colvin wrote:
- So, since [as I understand it] upwards of 90% of all real intel comes
- from OS, isn't it safe to say these non-gov guys without the TS/SCI info
- could come somewhere close to the answers?
- On 9/22/10 9:48 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
- Agree
- Having said that, studies like this are read now inside the CIA, NCTC,
- FBI. Back in the day, nobody read anything other than what each other
- wrote.
- The challenge has always been that educational institutions and think
- tanks lack the access to very valuable feeds of information primarily in
- the SIGINT arena, so they lack 20-25% of the granular data.
- For example, let's say the FBI is investigating HZ surveillances in
- CONUS, predicated upon an intercept that indicates the go order has been
- given. The think tank does not have access to either reporting stream.
- Aaron Colvin wrote:
- I like studies like this, but the real problem is that the focus is on
- deterministic domains of "perfect" information. It's like game-theoretic
- models that assume rationality. These are great to understand and read,
- but, IMHO, should not be fully adhered to.
- On 9/22/10 9:29 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
- Well worth the read.
- --
- Sean Noonan
- Tactical Analyst
- Office: +1 512-279-9479
- Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
- Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
- www.stratfor.com
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