Advertisement
Not a member of Pastebin yet?
Sign Up,
it unlocks many cool features!
- Why LMND is not a good buy IMO:
- • Searches on LinkedIn, Google Scholar, dblp did not show anyone in LMND with publications in top AI focused venues like AAAI, PAMI, ICML, CVPR, ICCV, etc. They have a few Neuroscience and Psychology PhDs, but these disciplines may lack the hardcore engineering experience conferred by a pedigree in Computer Science.
- These are LMND tech leads:
- - https://www.linkedin.com/in/nathaniel-kohn
- - https://www.linkedin.com/in/shiri-simon-segal-325b5275/ <- probably the strongest AI person, but not purebred.
- - https://www.linkedin.com/in/markkoltnuk/
- - https://www.linkedin.com/in/maxim-orlov-6997751/
- These are the tech leads of serious AI companies. Checkout their impressive publications:
- - https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=l8WuQJgAAAAJ&hl=en (TSLA)
- - https://scholar.google.com.hk/citations?user=AUhj438AAAAJ&hl=en (NIO)
- • In 2019, LMND spent about 8x more on sales and marketing (mainly Facebook ads), compared to R&D. This does not look healthy.
- - https://sec.report/Document/0001047469-20-003926/#cu40510_our_lemonade_stand_a_letter_from_our_co-founders
- - https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/lmnd/financials/
- See other companies ratios:
- - https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/goog/financials/
- - https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/aapl/financials/
- - https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/spce/financials/
- - https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nio/financials/
- - https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nflx/financials/
- • If they have strong reasons to blitzscale, they should make it clear and be more transparent on it.
- • It appears that sales and marketing expense is the main culprit for their losses.
- Can they scale and maintain their customer base organically?
- • As a customer, I would rather have lower premiums from a company that skimps on ads, instead of higher premiums from a company that gives most of my money to Facebook. Why have they not worked in this direction?
- • If they are serious about AI, they will know exactly what to present to make a convincing case for investors with AI experience, yet not give out subtle black magic details to make it easily replicated. For now, I think AI is more of a marketing term / icing on the cake for them.
- • I am not too concerned about their donations: they spend about 80x more on marketing and sales than on charity.
- In fact, donating to charity looks far more efficient than buying advertisements!
- • Analysts may have better judgement on LMND compared to TSLA. Insurance is a finance game. EVs are an engineering game. If their lead IPO underwriter is pessimistic on their prospects, it looks like a cause for concern.
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lemonade-falls-8-credit-suisse-111029158.html
- • How far can we trust Chicken Genius Singapore (CGS) on their AI?
- Note: he may be inaccurate on their AI getting "exponentially better" with more data points.
- The marginal improvement in accuracy typically diminishes for every additional data point.
- Pushing a model from 80%->90% accuracy requires way more data than going from 20%->30% accuracy.
- • At the point of writing, I am neither short nor long LMND.
- • For me to invest, I want to see:
- 1) A drastic cut down of sales and marketing expenses to near-zero, while achieving high organic word-of-mouth growth.
- 2) A technical overview on their AI pipelines and architectures.
- • For now, their long term prospects seem very unclear.
- • If LMND stock somehow shoots up from here, I am perfectly OK with it. After all, anything can happen.
- • Everything above are just my own opinions and should never be taken as financial advice. I may be completely wrong. Everything here could be just the ramblings of a madman. Do your own research.
Advertisement
Add Comment
Please, Sign In to add comment
Advertisement