Danganronpa theories

WARNING: THESE THEORIES ARE WRITTEN DOWN BEFORE ENTERING THE RED DOOR FOR EACH TRIAL. THEREFORE, THEY MAY CONTAIN SPOILERS OF THE EVENTS THAT HAVE OCCURRED BEFORE THEN

Case 1

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Case 1

-How did the culprit obtain the knife?

The culprit simply went to the kitchen and retrieved the knife.

-How did the culprit enter Naegi's room?
-Who switched the nameplates and why? Was the cuplrit aware that it was Naegi's room he entered? Did he intend to kill Sayaka or Naegi?

The culprit could not have entered if Sayaka actually decided to seal herself in Naegi's room for the entire night as she claimed she would. She must have left the door unlocked at some point. She was probably lying to Naegi the previous night about being scared and such.

She likely made up the whole story about her door being rattled because
a) it'd be pretty stupid for a culprit to try rattling her door and harass her instead of using more discreet methods,
b) even if the culprit hoped the door was unlocked, they wouldn't just keep shaking the door once they find out it was locked,
c) if she really did get scared from that, she would not have left her room for the rest of the night and thus wouldn't have visited Naegi,
d) considering that the rooms are completely soundproof, it's likely that the doors are very rigid; she would not have even heard a knock (that's why they have buzzers), and therefore, she would not have heard the door rattling and it certainly wouldn't be shaking either,
e) even if she thought her room would be targeted, she would not have allowed Naegi to be alone in her room without even a single weapon. She could have at least suggested that he take the golden sword.

But no, she must have had some sinister intentions to allow Naegi to be alone in his room unarmed. Her goal was probably to get her hands on a weapon (the golden sword) and she was probably intending to kill someone herself. After all, she just watched that horrifying video and would want to graduate asap to find out what happened.

In fact, she probably went out and switched the nameplates, when the culprit saw an opportunity to enter the room before she locked it.

-What happened in Naegi's room?

When the culprit entered the room, Sayaka tried to defend herself with the golden sword, leaving traces of the gold leaf on her right hand. Culprit's knife could not overcome the superior reach of the sword. However, Sayaka did not take off the scabbard, and the scabbard got scratched by the knife. Her scabbard fell off while she was swinging the sword though. Culprit then struck Sayaka's right hand with the scabbard and broke her right hand, causing the sword to drop. Disarmed, Sayaka ran to the shower to hide, hoping that the culprit was not aware of the misaligned shower door.

However, the culprit brought his tools just in case. Using those tools, he was able to remove the knob and enter the shower. Culprit stabbed Sayaka and some of the blood splattered onto his shirt cuffs. Using her left hand, Sayaka dipped her finger onto her bloody wound, and wrote LEON. In the meantime, the culprit cleaned up the room, and also tore off part of his shirt cuffs and threw it into the garbage.

-How did the culprit dispose of the garbage?
-How is the crystal ball related to all this?

Okay, if the trash room shutter is a perfect door that blocks all entry and exit, then this is pretty much a perfect closed room in which case the only explanation is that Yamada is the culprit, or the actual culprit somehow obtained the keys from Yamada. However, there are no clues pointing to either of those, and it does not account for the glass ball. So I am going to propose that reasonably small objects can still pass through the shutters. After all, the other side of the shutters can clearly be seen (unlike the Ushiromiya garden shed shutters), so it may be feasible for an object to move through.

The culprit probably rolled up all the garbage into a ball and threw it into the incinerator through the gaps in the shutter. Although the incinerator is at least ten meters away from the shutter, the culprit is an excellent baseball pitcher, so it's safe to assume that the culprit was confident that the garbage would land on the incinerator. However, he still needed to find a way to turn on the incinerator. So, he decided to throw the crystal ball (which he found on the laundry) into the switch, to turn the incinerator on. The crystal ball happened to be made up of glass, so it shattered when it hit the ground after turning the incinerator on.

-Why would the culprit carry out the murder?

Well, graduation would work as a motive for pretty much everybody. Why target Sayaka specifically? Well, he probably didn't care who his target was, but he probably chose Sayaka because he found her outside her room at night, allowing him to attack. Sorry, I am not very good at figuring out motives.

-Who is the culprit?
Leon, Super Duper High School All-Star. Sayaka's dying message, and the necessity of a good pitch for explaining the garbage disposal both point towards Leon as the culprit.

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Case 2

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Case 2

-What is Fujisaki's gender?

This might sound like a silly question, but I've been wondering this even before the incident, because "her" voice sounds like a guy. Now, I know it's common for females to voice soft male characters, but females never have male voices. Anyhow, regarding legit clues:
a) "She" always refused Sakura and Asahina's invitations to work out in the female changing room, possibly because "she" wouldn't be able to enter the female changing room to begin with.
b) When the second floor first became accessible, Naegi's conversation with Fujisaki led him to think that Fujisaki "has an issue with changing rooms", but no issues with swimming or working out. It is possible that "her" issue was with changing rooms (in general) being separated by gender.
c) According to Asahina, Fujisaki was closer to the guys than to girls. Fujisaki certainly doesn't seem to be the type to be seeking attention from the opposite gender.
d) Oowada talked about Fujisaki's complex about being weak. Girls wouldn't normally have such a complex, but Fujisaki was probably a guy that was ashamed at being so weak. Hence, Fujisaki expressed a strong desire to become stronger (more masculine), and decided to pretend to be female until then, so that it would be okay for "him" to be so weak.
e) According to Celes, Fujisaki was probably working out at nighttime. If "she" was actually working out, "she" probably already found someone to help her. Based on Asahina's testimony, it is likely that the person helping her was a guy. However, due to the ElectroID barrier, they would not be able to work out together unless Fujisaki was also a guy. This would also explain why "she" would wait until nighttime, so that nobody but the guy supporting "her" would be aware of "her" true gender.
f) Not very conclusive, but Fujisaki was one of the few people who did not want to tell everyone what "her" embarrassing secret (that Monokuma would've made public) was. Maybe it was about "her" gender?
g) Kyouko, who is probably the Super Duper High School Detective, was touching Fujisaki's body during the crime scene investigation. The cause of death was already confirmed, so maybe she was actually checking Fujisaki's gender?
h) The murder most likely occurred in the male changing room, so Fujisaki most likely has a male ElectroID that allowed her to get in. Note that the Report Card does not have a Gender entry.
Regarding the last point...

-Where did the murder occur?

The male changing room, undoubtedly. The evidence is in the carpets and the posters. The posters were switched (I remember the male changing room having the supermodel poster) and so were the carpets (Sakura's coffee stain was found in the male changing room carpet). Why were the carpets and posters switched then? Because both the carpet and the posters had blood stains, so it was necessary to switch them up so that everybody thinks that the crime scene was the female changing room.

-Why would the culprit create the illusion that the crime scene was in the female changing room?

To create the illusion that the culprit was female since only females can enter the female changing room. It also supports the illusion that Fujisaki was female, thus erasing any suspicions that Fujisaki may have been working out with a guy.

-If the body was moved from the male to the female changing room, how did the culprit have access to IDs of both genders?

Well, if the culprit was male, he would simply have to take one of the female IDs of the deceased from the letterbox.

-So what really happened that night?

Fujisaki and the guy supporting her went to the male changing room to work out. The other guy then killed her with the dumbell. Using one of the female IDs of the deceased, the culprit then entered the female changing room, switched the posters and carpets, crucified Fujisaki on the female changing room, and wrote Genocide Shou's signature on the wall.

-So was Genocider Shou the culprit?

Absolutely not. Genocider Shou would use scissors to pierce the head, and to nail the hands. The culprit used a dumbell to kill Fujisaki, and also used an extension cord to tie the hands. The culprit was only trying to make it look like Genocider Shou did it.

-Why pretend to be like Genocider Shou?

To frame Genocider Shou, obviously. I suspect that Touko might actually be Genocider Shou, with two personalities: the Genocider Shou side that kills people, and the Touko side that faints at the sight of blood. Even if Touko actually isn't Genocider Shou, the culprit would probably try to convince everyone that she is.

-How would the culprit know about Genocider Shou's crucifying procedure?

The culprit was probably one of those big d00ds that had access to those classified files.

-Why would the culprit choose to act now?

Because of those embarrassing secrets that Monokuma threatened to reveal to the public. The culprit probably did not care about his own secret, but he knew that reacting to this threat would be a good motive for Genocider Shou. He chose to act now in order to create a motive for Genocider Shou, thus framing her (Touko) as the culprit.

-So the culprit's motive for murder was...?

Graduation, as usual. He may have also had some dangerous secret as well. Also, if Touko = Genocider Shou, he would probably want to expose her crimes and have her executed (along with the other irrelevant students) for the sake of justice.

-Who is the culprit?

Togami, who knows a whole lot about Genocider Shou and seems like a strong guy that Fujisaki can rely on.

Problems with this theory:
- Why didn't Togami imitate Genocider Shou exactly? Why use the extension cord which would incriminate him because he's always at the library? Why use the blunt dumbell instead of preparing scissors beforehand?

This was probably done because Togami wanted to reduce the blood loss as much as possible in order to easily transport the body. It doesn't explain why he would use the extension cord instead of nailing it with scissors though.

- What is the significance of Ishimaru and Oowada having their sauna competition?

Initially, I thought it was irrelevant to this specific case. It was not part of the Ammunition, after all. However, if they actually stayed at the pool at nighttime, then it implies that Fujisaki was NOT entering the male changing rooms every night with another guy, since Ishimaru and Oowada would've noticed them. Perhaps Fujisaki only started working out at the night of the murder?

- What happened to Leon's ElectroID?

Monokuma stated with certainty that it can not break. Only explanation I can think of is that the card was modified so that it wouldn't turn on, but is fully functional otherwise. Only Fujisaki, the Super Duper High School Programmer would be able to achieve this. Female!Fujisaki would have a good motive for doing this, in that she wanted to enter the male changing room to work out with that guy, while tampering with the ID so that nobody suspects that it was being used. The clues all point towards Male!Fujisaki though.

In any case, it was probably Togami that suggested that Fujisaki tamper with the card, in order to create the illusion that a female Fujisaki would never be able to enter the male changing room, thus eliminating any possibility of a male culprit.

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Case 3

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Case 3

First of all, there is a ridiculously large amount of evidence that points to Yamada being the culprit that faked his death. Far more than culprit!Togami in the second case. And since that was a red herring, it is almost guaranteed that Yamada isn't actually the culprit. Hell, I'd go as far as say that even Hatagakure has a higher chance of being a culprit than Yamada. But first, let's examine the culprit!Yamada theory:

First, Yamada designed the Justice Robo costume. He then called Hatagakure out with the note and drugged him at 1 AM. He then called Ishimaru out with a similar note and killed him at 6 AM. The incident with Celes is quite hard to explain. But anyhow, at 7 AM, he went to the second floor library and faked an injury. Or he probably really hit himself with the hammer but ensured that it was soft enough for him to maintain consciousness. The others found him there and took him to the infirmary. Then Celes supposedly spotted Justice Robo and they pursued him to the 2nd floor. Yamada then screamed and pulled out a hammer, pretending to be dead. Naegi, Asahina, and Celes came and found him there. Naegi went up to the third floor and discovered Ishimaru's dead body. Yamada then found an opportunity when Celes and Asahina went to the rest room. He wiped his glasses because the blood obscured his vision, threw the handkerchief into the trash, and left the room to hide somewhere. Celes went up to report on Yamada's missing body and they all got down. Yamada then went to the third floor, wrapped Ishimaru's body in a vinyl bag, and carted him off to the art prep room with the trolley. He locked the door in case he was interrupted while he set everything up and pretended to be dead, trying to frame Hatagakure with his "last breath". Also, at some point, he locked Hatagakure up in the swimming pool.

Problems with this theory:
a) Far too much evidence supports it
b) Requires either Celes or Hatagakure as an accomplice. Celes supposedly saw Justice Robo multiple times, and only Hatagakure could fit into that costume. Accomplices have nothing to gain, supposedly, and this theory does not explain the motive of the accomplices.
c) The Monokuma Case File states that both Ichimaru and Yamada are dead. I'm treating this as Beatrice's Red Truth, so Yamada is not faking his death.
d) The wet hammer further implies that there has been some whacking with non-justice hammers. The blood must've been washed off.

Now, let's analyze the important stuff

-Did Yamada die in the infirmary?

Nope. He's a giant guy that couldn't have been carried to the third floor. I have doubts that even Sakura could achieve such a feat, and she had an alibi (3rd floor, Ishimaru's body). Yamada was actually alive at that time, and he really did walk all the way to the third floor.

-How would you explain Yamada faking his death if he's not the culprit that killed himself?

Tough question. There are two possibilities: Accomplices and Independent Culprits. Since accomplices have nothing to gain by letting the culprit graduate, they will surely turn against the culprit during the class trial, so no culprit would trust an accomplice. However, nothing is stopping a culprit from utilizing another culprit's suspicious actions to construct their own perfect crime.

-Who killed Ishimaru?

Yamada, most likely. This is indicated by the Justice Hammers. Ishimaru was most likely killed at 6 AM, even before Celes was supposedly attacked. Despite being the first victim, the hammer was marked Justice Hammer #4. This implies that the one who killed Ishimaru intended for the sequence of events to be discovered as they did: Hammer #1 for Celes, Hammer #2 for Yamada in the library, and Hammer #3 for Yamada in the infirmary. There may have been some improvising during the specific situations, but it's safe to assume that all hammers were left by the same culprit. Since Yamada is definitely the one who left Hammer #3 (assuming he faked his death), it's safe to assume that Yamada killed Ishimaru as well.

-What happened to Hammer #2?

I find it strange that Naegi never noticed anything odd about Hammer #2. He never thought of searching the library again, and even when he did, Hammer #2 simply vanished and yet, Naegi did not notice anything wrong. Since the missing Hammer #2 is not part of the Ammunition, it's possible that the game developers derped and that the missing Hammer #2 is irrelevant to this case.

However, if we assume that the missing Hammer #2 is actually important, doesn't it mean that somebody picked it up at that time? Who would have done so and why?

-So did Celes really see Justice Robo wandering around?

This is another difficult question. If Hatagakure is the culprit, he may have fabricated the whole story of him being drugged and such. There is no such thing as coincidence though, so Justice Robo is likely linked to the Justice Hammers. If Hatagakure dressed up as Justice Robo and genuinely attacked Yamada in the library, it doesn't explain why Yamada would have Justice Hammer #3 when he faked his death. Hatagakure, after all, was seen running to the second floor by Celes at that time. Unless Yamada and Hatagakure were collaborating with each other.

There is also the possibility that Celes fabricated all her sightings of Justice Robo. Hatagakure was probably locked up near the pool throughout the incident. In any case, Yamada still had access to Hammer #3 and also named Justice Robo as his assailant, so if Justice Robo wandering around was purely fiction, it requires Celes and Yamada to be collaborating with each other.

-So who was it that killed Yamada??

From the logical sequence of events, it would be Celes. After Yamada carried Ishimaru's body to the art prep room and unlocked the room, they were discovered by Celes and Asahina. Asahina went to inform the others, leaving Celes alone in the room, allowing her to kill Yamada and wash out the blood from the hammer. What doesn't make sense is that Yamada would continue to frame Hatagakure in his last moments. It's pretty much impossible for Hatagakure to kill Yamada in the art prep room without anybody noticing, so maybe Yamada simply didn't see who his attacker was. Still though, if all the Junior Robo stuff were fiction fabricated by Celes (implying that Celes was the one framing Hatagakure), then Yamada would know nothing about Hatagakure and therefore wouldn't mention his name.

-Why did the culprit(s) kill Ishimaru and Yamada?

No clue, aside from the usual motives regarding graduation and opportunistic strikes.

-Who is/are the culprit(s)?

Yamada most likely killed Ishimaru, but he was then killed by Celes/Hatagakure. Leaning towards Celes.

-Significance of ElectroIDs?

Can't think of anything.

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Case 4

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Case 4

-Was the rec room a true closed room?

Yes, it is. There are no clues pointing to a hidden passage, or any fancy tricks that enable the chair to be moved from outside.

-How was Sakura killed then?

Well, it is unlikely that the culprit was hiding and blended in with the crowd since there were only three people to account for (aside from the three that discovered the corpse). Therefore, it's likely that Sakura herself sealed up the room with the chair. She was most likely killed by poison, as indicated by the vomited blood. Her hands were perfectly clean, so there was probably no struggle. Besides, she's the Super Duper High School Fighter, so I doubt anybody would dare to actually fight her physically.

-What about the wounds on her head?

She was hit on the head... twice. By Monokuma bottles, most likely. The only issue is when she was hit. If it was before she died, she would have fought back, but her clean hands and general lack of blood in the room implies otherwise. If it was after she died, it doesn't explain why the puddle of blood would be so far from the body. It also prevents the closed room from being set up.

-What's up with these Monokuma bottles?

Kyouko discovered a pattern. All I noticed is that there are gaps for two bottles. There should've been six bottles originally anyway, since there are six unique chess pieces. Does this mean that two bottles were taken out from that array of bottles? If the fragments on the floor were from two bottles and not one, it would also explain why they weighed more than a single bottle. However, only one Monokuma figure, bottle neck, and bottle bottom were found on the floor, so those of the other bottle must have been removed from the scene.

As for why the culprit would do that, I have no idea. It would likely be to conceal the fact that Sakura was hit on the head twice, but I can't understand why the culprit would want to do that. Kyouko would've noticed that there are two wounds anyway. It's also suspicious that both bottle fragments were all mixed together, implying that she was hit twice in the same location.

-What about the protein supplement container? How come there are glass shards under it?

The protein supplement container was probably thrown into the floor AFTER the corpse was discovered, since there were glass shards under it. In other words, the culprit held on to the container and threw it in there. But that doesn't explain how Sakura got poisoned. If she drank the poison from the container, the culprit must've taken the container outside after that, but then Sakura wouldn't have been able to seal up the room. Besides, why would the culprit have later brought the container into the room anyway? And even if the culprit wanted to put the container there, why would he/she have placed it on the area with glass from the broken window? They could have placed it ANYWHERE else, so there must have been a reason why it was found on the one location that would imply that it was placed afterwards.

This is the only solution I can think of: Sakura sealed up the room, sat in the chair, and decided to have some of her protein supplements. It was spiked with poison though, so she died, dropping the container to the floor. When the culprit arrived in the room later, he/she discreetly kicked the container until it was positioned over the glass, in order to create the illusion that the container did not exist inside the room when the closed room was broken. This would rule out the possibility of poison, thus maintaining the impossibility of a perfect closed room murder.

-What about the "dying message" in the magazine?

Sakura could not have written it, since her fingers were completely clean. In other words, the culprit must've written it, most likely to frame Fuukawa. It doesn't make sense though. If it was done before Sakura died, then Sakura would've been completely conscious (no clues indicating the presence of a sedative or tranquilizer) and would have fought with the culprit. If it was done after Sakura died, it would have been impossible to create the closed room. There is also no chance of Sakura being killed elsewhere, since there are no clues that indicate a different crime scene or that Sakura's body was moved.

-Whose footprints were found in the Chem Lab?

Sakura. The only clue regarding the footprints is that yellow powder was found in Sakura's shoes. However, Sakura must've gone there AFTER the yellow powder spilled to the floor, and nobody else walked around that area until Naegi and Togami ruined it. Therefore, Sakura would've undoubtedly noticed the bottle of poison in Cabinet A and would've been suspicious. At the very least, it would make her think twice before drinking more of her protein supplements.

-What about the candy wrapper?

It was clearly an attempt to frame Hatagakure. I mean, come on, do they really expect us to believe that Hatagakure came in, attacked Sakura, took her candy, AND THEN ATE THAT CANDY IN THE SAME ROOM, leaving part of the wrapper on the floor and the other in his pocket? Unintentionally??? As crazy as Hatagakure is, this is way too farfetched, even for him. It would make more sense that the culprit acquired the candy when attacking Sakura, and decided to give part of the wrapper to Hatagakure in order to frame him

-Wait, isn't the culprit trying to frame Fuukawa? What's with the inconsistency?

The culprit wanted to frame both Fuukawa and Hatagakure. There was probably a motive for this. It's possible that the culprit wanted to have more options just in case Kyouko or somebody finds a way to prove the innocence of one of the targets. Another possibility is that the culprit was actually one of Fuukawa/Hatagakure, and they took advantage of the fact that the smart d00ds would deduce that the incriminating evidence was actually set up to frame them. After all, the previous case trials all started with people ganging up on the suspect with the most incriminating evidence, followed by Kyouko directing them elsewhere.

So yes, Hatagakure probably DID eat the candy in the room, and separated the wrappers in order to incriminate himself.

-Why would Sakura block the door with the chair?

In normal murder mysteries, it would likely be a case where the victim sealed the room out of fear for the murderer and then died due to blood loss or some remote murder. However, this does not make sense here. Sakura is a strong fighter, and she would not fear any opponent, even if they had a weapon. She would fight to the death even, and would not seal up the room, cowering in fear. Even if she was killed by the blows to her head, the culprit would not have been able to seal up the room. Only Sakura could have blocked the door.

-How would you explain the situation with each of the different possible culprits?

Well, I already explained Fuukawa/Hatagakure trying to frame themselves to direct suspicion towards those that weren't framed. There's also little relevance towards Togami being the culprit. He was the first to notice the spillage in the Chem Lab, and was the one to figure out the spillage happened around the time of the crime. Even if he made that up, it doesn't really seem to matter just when it was spilled.

Culprit!Kyouko is an interesting case. Unlike previous trials, Naegi did not find all the evidence in the crime scene during his first inspection. Togami already left earlier, and Asahina probably wasn't in the state of mind to notice anything funny happening. She seems to unconditionally trust Kyouko anyway. Anyhow, Kyouko pointed Naegi towards three things: the magazine rack, the Monokuma bottles, and Sakura's body. In other words, she could have clearly forged any of those pieces of evidence. In fact, the ammo regarding Sakura having TWO blows to the head is called "Kirigiri's Testimony". The yellow powder in the shoes may also have been planted by Kyouko, implying that Sakura was NOT the one who visited the chem lab earlier. This also fits with Togami's observation that Naegi's shoes are too big for the footprints, and we all know how huge Sakura's feet are. The size of the footprints was not included in the Ammo, but if we are to take that statement seriously, we can rule out Sakura as being the one to enter the Chem Lab.

Regarding the magazine rack, Kyouko probably would be able to write "Fuukawa" in blood while keeping her back to Asahina. This would explain how the culprit was able to write a message in the magazine AFTER Sakura died. Lastly, culprit!Kyouko would explain why she would attack Sakura at a time when there was a good possibility of Togami/Fuukawa/Hatagakure arriving as they were invited. Kyouko simply did not know that Sakura called them, and got lucky in that they never showed up.

Finally, we have culprit!Asahina. This actually explains most of the stuff that didn't make sense. Basically, the idea is that Sakura herself decided to die. This is hinted when Sakura asks Naegi to take care of Asahina should anything happen to her, before Monokuma revealed her as his mole. The hostages were probably killed or something, so Sakura no longer felt the will to keep living. Except for Asahina's sake. And she was well aware that Asahina would not be able to experience sunshine unless everyone else, including herself, were to be executed by Asahina's gradution. So she proposed this plan to have Asahina kill her, so that Asahina can graduate. She may have told Asahina her decision in the infirmary. Asahina had no choice but to accept when she realized that Sakura genuinely had no other purpose in living except to allow Asahina to graduate.

So culprit!Asahina and Sakura staged everything together. Asahina gave some of the candy she hoarded to Hatagakure, whacked Sakura on the head twice with her consent, and used the blood to write Fuukawa on the magazine. Together, they planted a lot of useless evidence, hoping to keep everyone else confused with how to interpret the clues. Sakura asked Asahina to leave the rec room when she sealed up the door to create a perfect closed room, and then consumed the poison in a protein supplement container. Since it was Asahina that spiked it with poison, she would be considered to be the murderer. The odds of the others being able to narrow the culprit down to Asahina would've been very unlikely, especially considering her close relationship with Sakura. Thus, she would be safe and would be able to graduate, fulfilling Sakura's final wish.

-Significance of the hand prints in the open locker?

If the culprit is Asahina, she was probably planting fake evidence to lead Kyouko and others to false theories. If the culprit was somebody else, they probably tried to ambush Sakura and get a surprise attack in. Considering the relative locations of the magazine rack, the Monokuma bottles and the locker, the culprit was probably able to whack Sakura the first time while Sakura had her back on the bottles/locker, in front of the magazine rack. She was probably quite disoriented after the first blow, allowing the attacker to strike again. By then, Sakura got focused again, scaring the culprit to flee. Sakura was not in a condition to pursue the culprit, and did not know what else the culprit had in mind. The culprit would probably bring a deadly weapon and finish her off, so she sealed up the room so that she can recover first. She wanted some of her protein supplements, but was instead poisoned by it.

-Why would the culprit kill Sakura?

For culprit!Asahina, it was Sakura herself who desired to die at Asahina's hands as her final wish, to allow Asahina to graduate. For anybody else, it was likely because Sakura was revealed to be the mole. It would be too dangerous to allow the mole to keep living with them, so the culprit decided it was time to get rid of the mole and graduate through it as well. Killing two birds with one stone.

-Who is the culprit?

In order from most likely to least likely, imo, it goes Asahina > Kyouko > Hatagakure > Fuukawa > Togami > lolNaegi

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Case 5

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Case 5

-When was the victim murdered?

The body was discovered at around 9 am, and the explosion happened at that time. According to Monokuma's case files (Red Truth), the explosion occurred post-mortem, so the victim was already dead when the body was discovered. Now, although the upper part of the body was wet (from the water used to douse the flames), the lower part was dry. This implies that the body did not get wet from the sprinklers i.e. it was not on the garden at 7:30 AM.

Therefore, the victim either died in the garden AFTER 7:30, or the victim was killed earlier but the body was moved after 7:30. But since, even before the explosion, there were no signs of blood on the ground around the body, it's safe to assume that the victim was not killed in the garden at all, but the body was moved there sometime after 7:30.

-Then how come the blood on the victim was still wet? Shouldn't it have dried if the victim was killed earlier?

It would've... if the blood came from the victim herself. However, notice that Hatagakure testified that there were five chickens in the coop in the previous night? And now there are four? There is only one reason why a chicken would be missing in this situation: the murderer slaughtered a chicken and placed the fresh blood on the victim's body to make it look like the victim was killed recently. Poor chicken...

-Whether the victim was killed in the garden or moved there, it still had to be done after 7:30. Who did it?

Asahina met Naegi at approximately 7:30. Even if it was a little after 7:30, she most likely did not have enough time to kill/move the victim, especially considering that the garden was on the fifth floor. Anyhow, Asahina and Naegi reunited with the rest and they did not separate until Fuukawa headed to the garden alone. Fuukawa hasn't even been gone for a minute so it's unlikely that she killed/moved the victim. The only ones without an alibi to move/kill the victim, therefore, are Kyouko and Mukuro.

The Corpse Discovery Announcement was not made when they first discovered the victim. Doesn't that imply the victim was alive at that time?

Nope, because when the Corpse Discovery Announcement was made, none of the people in the group were in the garden. They were in the Data Processing Room. Even if Kyouko and Mukuro were both alive, they could not have triggered the Corpse Discovery Announcement that requires three people. It is therefore, more likely that the victim was dead the first time, but Monokuma did not make the announcement.

-Why didn't Monokuma make the announcement? Why is he violating his own standard procedure for murders?

It looks as if Monokuma was simply trolling them into thinking that the victim was the headmaster, giving them the hope that they are finally free, only to have that hope crushed by despair when he startles them at the Data Processing Room.

That being said, I don't think Monokuma would actually violate the procedures to troll the students. What's more likely is that the PuppetMaster actually ran into some problems, possibly caused by Kyouko, and couldn't actually perform his Monokuma duties while he was preoccupied. This would explain why the students were freely able to dismantle the Monokuma in the gymnasium. After the Puppetmaster dealt with the problem, he resumed his Monokuma duties, realized that the victim was already found, then proceeded to pretend like he was trolling the students, and then made the Corpse Discovery Announcement.

-What about the explosion?

It looked as if the explosion was a trap triggered by Shou trying to open the mask. If that were the case though, Fuukawa should have vaporized, as Togami put it, and yet she somehow survived without any major damage. Furthermore, the fragments imply that the explosion was caused by the same bomb found in the dismantled Monokuma from the gymnasium. In other words, somebody deliberately threw the bomb at the body when Shou tried to take off the mask. Hatagakure was last seen with the bomb, so it was probably him. He seemed to be really terrified at handling the bomb though, so he may have placed it on the floor when somebody else picked it up. It's even possible that Kyouko/Mukuro picked up the bomb while the students were gone, hid in the garden, threw the bomb, and left after the students headed to the Data Processing Room.

The purpose of the explosion was most likely to obscure the identity of the victim, and probably also to obscure the time of the murder. It may have also been done to make the body entirely wet when the flames are doused, to preserve the illusion that the body was there before 7:30. This did not work though, because Naegi did not douse the lower part of the body.

-So when was the victim murdered again?

While there is no reason to believe so, the Ammunition seems to imply that the packing tape and duralumin arrows are relevant to the case. The packing tape may have been used to seal the wound of the victim when the victim was first stabbed. After the blood stopped flowing and dried up, the packing tape was then removed and wrapped up in the locker. Later on, after 7:30, the chicken was used to cover that area with blood to make it look like a fresh corpse.

If that is the case, the time of death of the victim is very important. One possibility is that Kyouko killed the victim (most likely Mukure then) even before she gave her room key to Togami. She killed Mukure, covered the wound with packing tape, waited for the wound to stop bleeding, placed the packing tape on the cupboard, and left the locker key in her room. The problem with this theory is that Kyouko would have hidden the locker key better if she really wanted to get away with the murder. She also showed no resistance upon handing her room key to Togami.

Another possibility is that the locker key was planted in Kyouko's room AFTER Kyouko relinquished her room key to Togami. This would imply that Togami put the locker key there, which would imply that he was the culprit that killed the victim. In this case, the victim may still have been Kyouko, killed after she disappeared. The problem with this theory is that Togami would be well aware that planting the locker key in Kyouko's room would cast suspicion on him as well.

-Eh, what about Naegi's knife? Since it was stolen at nighttime before the corpse discovery day, doesn't that mean the murder happened after that time?

First of all, while it is confirmed that the victim was stabbed by the knife (Monokuma's case file), it is not confirmed when the knife was stolen. Culprit!Kyouko probably murdered the victim even before Fuukawa found it, and left it at the 5th floor. The knife could've also been stolen at any time after the murder. It can be argued that Naegi would keep his room locked at all times, but that would make it impossible for the knife to vanish from the room, regardless of whether it happened at daytime or nighttime. Besides, Kyouko was able to sneak up on him at nighttime before that, and pointed out that he did not lock his room, so it's safe to assume that Naegi is not very cautious about locking his room.

-Speaking of Naegi, what about that dream with a masked person holding a knife?

It may have actually been a dream, lol. But considering that Naegi believes its real, it would be very silly for it to actually be a dream. So he probably actually saw the culprit and the victim fighting in his room. From the masked person and Kyouko, it is unknown as to which of the two murdered the other.

-Relevance of vinyl sheet?

idk... maybe it was used to cover the body in the garden so that it wouldn't be noticed earlier. And then, after 7:30, when one side of the sheet got all wet, the vinyl sheet was removed and replaced with a lab coat, and the chicken was slaughtered. Saves all the effort into physically moving the body. Might seem too chance-dependent to assume nobody would notice the vinyl sheet and check it out the previous day but then again, Case 3 relied on far more chance than this.

-Relevance of the duralumin arrows?

No clue, since the Monokuma File only mentions the knife wound, trauma on the head by an iron-pipe kind of object, and the past scars.

-Trauma on the head by an iron pipe?

No clue, since nothing fits that profile in the Ammunition. Unless duralumin arrows have diameters comparable to iron pipes.

-Who was the victim?

The past scars, as well as the dog tattoo, imply that the victim was Ikusaba Mukuro. I also don't want Kyouko to die yet...

-Any possibility of Kyouko = Mukuro?

Yes, because Monokuma testified that Kyouko wears gloves to hide the markings on her hands. There is no evidence that Kyouko is her real name to begin with. On the other hand, Monokuma also confirmed the existence of a 16th student, but there is no actual evidence that the 16th student is Mukuro aside from Kyouko's claim.

-Any possibility of culprit!Naegi?

The victim may have tried to visit Naegi with the knife. Naegi fought back and drove out the victim. Or killed her. While multiple personalities would allow that much, it would not allow Naegi to have an opportunity to move the body to the garden AFTER the sprinklers activated.

-Any possibility of Monokuma changing operators?

I am actually considering this for real. The original Puppetmaster was attacked or something (by Kyouko, most likely), and the attacker decided to assume the role of the Puppetmaster after that. So the Monokuma in the Data Processing Room may not have actually been the same Puppetmaster from previous cases. This is really unlikely though.

-Motive for murder?

Graduation? In any case, it would make sense for anybody to target Kyouko, because she cracks all cases and prevents everyone from graduating. It would also make sense for anybody to target Mukuro once her presence is confirmed, since she is not only a strong mercenary, but she also has the advantage of gathering intel from the very beginning while everybody else was unaware of her existence.

-Who is the culprit?

If the victim is Mukuro, Kyouko would probably be the culprit. If the victim is Kyouko, Togami would most likely be the culprit.

-----------------
Case 5 rethinking

NOTE: Due to a development occurring after entering the red door but before the trial starts, I wrote down some additional thoughts below. These are written after entering the red door but before the trial starts.

(spoiler break)








Case 5 rethinking

-Relevance of Kyouko being alive?

Well, Kyouko is certainly not the victim, and I doubt she's the culprit. The victim is most likely Mukuro, then. Kyouko must have discovered something in the second floor dormitory. As I suspected, she probably caused some big problems for Monokuma. Her complete freedom is what allowed her to trouble Monokuma so much.

-Relevance of the Master Key?

Most theories about when exactly the victim died are irrelevant. Why? Because the culprit may have been able to obtain Kyouko's Master Key, allowing them to freely enter both Naegi and Kyouko's room anytime. Therefore, the theft of Naegi's knife and, more importantly, the placement of the locker key in Kyouko's room, are now governed by the Master Key. The culprit could have easily placed the locker key any time, so its existence in Kyouko's room does not necessarily incriminate Kyouko or Togami.

Nothing else really matters, since I've already accounted for the possibility of Kyouko being alive in my previous entry.

-Sooooo, who is the culprit?

Well, it's not Kyouko or Togami for sure, now. From the remaining students, I'm leaning towards Hatagakure. He was the last one seen with the bomb, after all. He also hangs around the garden the most.

------
Case 6

(spoiler break)








Case 6

-Who was the victim in Case 5?

Although the Case 5 trial heavily implied that it was Mukuro, Case 6 brings new evidence that suggests otherwise. The second page of Mukuro's profile consists of her measurements, and after comparing those with the measurements of the known 15 students, I discovered that Mukuro has the exact same measurements as Junko Enoshima. Therefore, Kyouko verifying the measurements of the corpse still allows the possibility of Enoshima being the corpse.

Both the head trauma and the knife stab were inflicted post-mortem, based on Kyouko's analysis. Therefore, she was probably killed by the multiple wounds that must have occurred more than just a few days ago. This fits with Enoshima, who was killed by multiple spears (?) when she attacked Monokuma just before the Case 1 Investigation phase. Furthermore, ever since Case 5, I always wondered why a mercenary would have fake nails, but it makes perfect sense for Enoshima to have fake nails, since she's a supermodel. It also justifies the purpose of covering the face with the mask, so that nobody recognizes Enoshima; it wouldn't have been necessary if it was Mukuro, since nobody knew how Mukuro looks anyway, and Kyouko would've shown up eventually. The body also needed to be burnt so that not even Kyouko will be able to deduce that the corpse has been dead for as long as since the day of the first trial.

Finally, only nine lights were on from the units of the Bio Lab aka morgue. By the end of Case 4, there have been nine human deaths: Enoshima, Sayaka, Leon, Fujisaki, Oowada, Ishimaru, Yamada, Celes, and Sakura. Assuming that all nine of those are dead, it can be concluded that the corpse from Case 5 is actually one of these nine i.e. Enoshima. Besides, Enoshima has been the most forgettable character so far, being neither a culprit nor a victim nor a survivor, so it's about time she started becoming relevant instead of being a generic throwaway character.

-Wait, then what about Case 5's Class Trial?

If the corpse belongs to Enoshima, then the very existence of the Class Trial is contradictory. After all, Enoshima was killed as punishment for violating the Rules, and was not killed by one of her companions. Although the exclusion of punishment as being considered murder is not explicitly stated in the Rules, the Rules do declare that a Class Trial will be held a short length of time after the murder, and Case 5's trial happened after a really long time after Enoshima died. It's safe to assume that punishment does NOT lead to a class trial or graduation, so Case 5 should not have had a Class Trial then...

Even the Corpse Discovery Announcement is suspicious. Regardless of the identity of the corpse, the Corpse Discovery Announcement was made at a time when everyone was in the Data Processing Room, well after they discovered the corpse. There is no way three living humans could have seen the corpse at that time of the announcement. Furthermore, the presence of Monokuma implies that the PuppetMaster was in the Control Room, so he was fully capable of making the announcement anytime. The argument that he was unaware of whether the corpse was found or not makes little sense, since he knew that the body was in the garden and would therefore be observing it to find out when it gets found. The fact that the Corpse Discovery Announcement even happened implies that he did know that the corpse was found, despite not entering the Data Processing Room after the others entered.

On the basis that Monokuma would strictly adhere to the Rules, Case 5 makes very little sense. The only explanation I can think of is Battler's corpse theory from Umineko EP5. Although a murdered corpse must lead to a Class Trial that follows Rules 7-9, it does not mean that a fake Class Trial can't be held that mimics the real Class Trial to the extent that all the students are deceived. So Monokuma could make a fake announcement and a fake Class Trial, where Rules 7-9 are inapplicable, while students think it's the real thing.

This also explains why Naegi survived Case 5. Naegi is most likely not the murderer, so the remaining students MUST all be executed for being incorrect, based on Rule 9. Even if Naegi IS the murderer, Rule 8 states that he MUST be executed, so he should not have survived. However, it would make complete sense if the trial was never a proper Class Trial to begin with. Monokuma actually planned for a picture of Fujisaki to show up on the screen and stopped the machine to save Naegi, so he didn't actually execute anybody.

-Regardless of the identity of the corpse, Enoshima's measurements are still identical to Mukuro's. What does that mean?

Well, the info on Mukuro is very little. And the info on Enoshima is even less. Even identical twins wouldn't have identical measurements at this age, so there's clearly something fishy going on here. Also, Monokuma confirmed that the Case 5 corpse belongs to Mukuro. Is it possible, then, that the Enoshima we know of is actually Mukuro? After all, Report Cards do not contain Red Truth (e.g. Celes's name was listed as "Celestia Ludenberg" when that's not her real name). So Mukuro could have assumed the name of Enoshima, which was written in the Report Card, while her ElectroID says Mukuro Ikusaba. But then she died before the first trial.

Still though, Enoshima's ElectroID was found in the letterbox during Case 2. So Mukuro's ElectroID must've been switched with Enoshima's ElectroID then. In that case, the real Enoshima is still alive and is probably the Puppetmaster. It is interesting to note that in the Group Photo, Enoshima's face is the only one that is not visible (blocked by Ishimaru's arm).

Another possibility is that Enoshima disguised as Mukuro when she first enrolled in the school, which would explain why her body lacked any scars. But the Group Photo still implies that somebody else was disguising as Enoshima then.

Should it turn out that Enoshima's and Mukuro's measurements are a complete coincidence, I would be extremely irritated at this game. I am already really annoyed at Case 3's extreme reliance on chance (Celes having Yasuhiro as her real name, Corpse Discovery Announcement happening right after Yamada was discovered, etc) but at least Celes was the Super Duper High School High Roller. Having the climax of the game rely on coincidental facts is completely unacceptable.

-If Case 5's victim was killed more than a few days ago, who was it that tried to attack Naegi that night?

The Puppetmaster is the only possible answer. The PuppetMaster most likely has a Master Key, so entering Naegi's room was no problem.

-So what happened that night?

The culprit put on a mask and tried to attack Naegi with the survival knife. Kyouko noticed that and was able to rush in to save Naegi. Culprit retreated and decided to go for Plan B. He/she headed to the Bio Lab, took out Enoshima's corpse, whacked her head with some packed duralumin arrows, placed the corpse on the garden, covered it in a vinyl sheet, planted the arrows and packing tape in the locker, and planted the locker key in Kyouko's room. After 7:30, when one side of the vinyl sheet got all wet, the culprit returned to the garden at some point, removed the sheet and put it on the shed, covered the body with the lab coat, killed the chicken to pour blood on the lab coat, and planted the knife. The bomb trap may have been planted as well. All of this was done to frame Kyouko. This scenario also implies that Togami, Hatagakure, and Asahina are innocent, since they all had alibis after 7:30. Fuukawa is likely cleared as well, since she didn't have THAT much time to do all those.

-Photos and interviews, what's up with those?

The general idea is pretty obvious. When Naegi entered the school at the beginning, he did not actually get knocked out after he got in. Rather, he became an official student of the school and took classes and stuff. All students did so. They had fun and those photos were taken at various times. Hatagakure's locker still contains the contents from back then. Anyhow, this continued until Mankind's Most Despairingly Maleficient and Monstrous Malefaction occurred. That was a very serious incident, and the school was forced to shut down. However, that incident also triggered the start of this project. Around fifteen students agreed to this project as was shown by the video. However, the project necessitated that all participants would have their memories erased so that the last thing they remember is entering the school. And then all of this happened.

-What exactly happened at Mankind's Most Despairingly Maleficient and Monstrous Malefaction?

Not sure, but it was caused by a group called Despair. Muruka, Enoshima, and/or the Puppetmaster may have been part of it. Kyouko's diary implies that there are two people in Despair. The bloody classroom on the fifth floor implies that there were some really brutal murders too.

-And what is this project going on? Why is it broadcasted?

Hmmm, not sure, but if I had to guess, it would be to prove a point. To broadcast to the whole world, that despair can completely obliterate hope. To show that human beings would go as far as commit homicide at these times of despair.

Alternatively, it was probably planned to have Naegi and the others discover the truth, so that they will be able to escape by their own efforts, despite the horrible situation they found themselves in.

-What's so special about Kyouko then? Why was the culprit targeting her in Case 5?

Probably because she's the Super Duper High School Sleuth, so she has no trouble cracking the cases, which takes away all the fun of having the students turn against each other. Her relation to the headmaster is probably not related to that. She's also too calm and collected, and would not give in to the pressure of despair.

-What's so special about Naegi? Why wasn't he in the photo?

Maybe Naegi was the one taking the photo? :P
Seriously now, Naegi has always been a special case. He was chosen randomly from a bunch of average students, and he's the one who has been taking care of all the class trials (of course, he IS the protagonist). He was probably chosen to fulfill a specific role. His involvement at this point was most likely all planned?

-Relevance of Genocider and Fuukawa having different memories but the same knowledge?

Hmmm, what if Genocider actually still has her memories of the school, while Fuukawa's memories were erased? Is there something that Genocider could've known?

-So, who is the Puppetmaster?

None of the 13 participants of the first Class Trial could be the PuppetMaster, since somebody was controlling Monokuma. Sayaka and Enoshima were both confirmed dead, too. Therefore, the PuppetMaster must be the sixteenth student, Mukuro Ikusaba. Or Enoshima, if they actually switched places earlier.

Knox's 1st would forbid having the unseen Mukuro as the culprit, so it's most likely Enoshima. That would cause problems with Knox's 10th, but eh, there may have actually been more definite clues that I disregarded when playing the beginning.