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  1. Warning: Name is nonexistent or not a directory:
  2. /Users/tzha/ZhaData/Git/TZcode/MatlabFiles
  3. > In path (line 109)
  4.   In startup (line 32)
  5.   In matlabrc (line 209)
  6. Warning: Name is nonexistent or not a directory:
  7. /Users/tzha/ZhaData/Git/TZcode/MatlabFiles/MSV
  8. > In path (line 109)
  9.   In startup (line 33)
  10.   In matlabrc (line 209)
  11.  
  12.     Academic License
  13.  
  14. >> dynare usmodel_17nov2015.mod
  15.  
  16. Configuring Dynare ...
  17. [mex] Generalized QZ.
  18. [mex] Sylvester equation solution.
  19. [mex] Kronecker products.
  20. [mex] Sparse kronecker products.
  21. [mex] Local state space iteration (second order).
  22. [mex] Bytecode evaluation.
  23. [mex] k-order perturbation solver.
  24. [mex] k-order solution simulation.
  25. [mex] Quasi Monte-Carlo sequence (Sobol).
  26. [mex] Markov Switching SBVAR.
  27.  
  28. Starting Dynare (version 4.4.3).
  29. Starting preprocessing of the model file ...
  30. Found 40 equation(s).
  31. Evaluating expressions...done
  32. Computing static model derivatives:
  33.  - order 1
  34. Computing dynamic model derivatives:
  35.  - order 1
  36.  - order 2
  37. Processing outputs ...done
  38. Preprocessing completed.
  39. Starting MATLAB/Octave computing.
  40.  
  41. Warning: The file '/Applications/Dynare/4.4.3/matlab/dynare.m' could not be cleared because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  42. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  43.   In dynare (line 180)
  44. Warning: The file '/Users/prabalshrestha/Documents/_Semester 2/Macro II/Part 2/Set 3/nbb finale/Part 1 - 203/usmodel_17nov2015.m' could not be cleared
  45. because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  46. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  47.   In dynare (line 180)
  48. Warning: The file '/Applications/Dynare/4.4.3/matlab/dynare.m' could not be cleared because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  49. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  50.   In dynare (line 180)
  51. Warning: The file '/Users/prabalshrestha/Documents/_Semester 2/Macro II/Part 2/Set 3/nbb finale/Part 1 - 203/usmodel_17nov2015.m' could not be cleared
  52. because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  53. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  54.   In dynare (line 180)
  55. Warning: The file '/Applications/Dynare/4.4.3/matlab/dynare.m' could not be cleared because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  56. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  57.   In dynare (line 180)
  58. Warning: The file '/Users/prabalshrestha/Documents/_Semester 2/Macro II/Part 2/Set 3/nbb finale/Part 1 - 203/usmodel_17nov2015.m' could not be cleared
  59. because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  60. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  61.   In dynare (line 180)
  62.  
  63. You did not declare endogenous variables after the estimation/calib_smoother command.
  64.  
  65. Loading 273 observations from usmodel_data_SW_data_nov17_2015_financial.mat
  66.  
  67. Restricting the sample to observations 71 to 242. Using in total 172 observations.
  68. Initial value of the log posterior (or likelihood): -991.4429
  69.                                             First-order      Norm of
  70.  Iter F-count            f(x)  Feasibility   optimality         step
  71.     0      37    9.914429e+02    0.000e+00    7.478e+02
  72.     1      80    9.654307e+02    0.000e+00    6.423e+02    2.399e-01
  73.     2     122    9.413051e+02    0.000e+00    5.407e+02    1.188e-01
  74.     3     161    9.392390e+02    0.000e+00    5.605e+02    5.250e-02
  75.     4     201    9.346024e+02    0.000e+00    2.948e+02    9.015e-02
  76.     5     240    9.272680e+02    0.000e+00    5.418e+02    2.470e-01
  77.     6     278    9.244884e+02    0.000e+00    3.099e+02    3.114e-01
  78.     7     316    9.173154e+02    0.000e+00    2.542e+02    7.040e-01
  79.     8     355    9.144978e+02    0.000e+00    2.590e+02    2.535e-01
  80.     9     394    9.127042e+02    0.000e+00    2.590e+02    1.695e-01
  81.    10     433    9.107463e+02    0.000e+00    2.389e+02    3.836e-01
  82.    11     471    9.063866e+02    0.000e+00    2.662e+02    6.518e-01
  83.    12     510    9.031907e+02    0.000e+00    2.586e+02    4.701e-01
  84.    13     548    8.995363e+02    0.000e+00    6.877e+02    7.251e-01
  85.    14     587    8.940189e+02    0.000e+00    2.436e+02    1.079e+00
  86.    15     626    8.920127e+02    0.000e+00    5.250e+02    7.471e-01
  87.    16     665    8.900735e+02    0.000e+00    3.508e+02    3.000e-01
  88.    17     704    8.862994e+02    0.000e+00    2.189e+02    8.952e-01
  89.    18     743    8.850332e+02    0.000e+00    2.500e+02    6.965e-01
  90.    19     782    8.848517e+02    0.000e+00    2.898e+02    2.128e-01
  91.    20     822    8.833771e+02    0.000e+00    2.922e+02    1.827e-01
  92.    21     861    8.827251e+02    0.000e+00    2.299e+02    3.783e-01
  93.    22     904    8.823654e+02    0.000e+00    1.282e+02    7.573e-02
  94.    23     943    8.819887e+02    0.000e+00    1.254e+02    5.699e-02
  95.    24     984    8.802947e+02    0.000e+00    6.536e+01    7.566e-02
  96.    25    1027    8.795693e+02    0.000e+00    2.959e+01    3.136e-02
  97.    26    1066    8.795595e+02    0.000e+00    4.293e+01    5.368e-02
  98.    27    1107    8.793802e+02    0.000e+00    2.021e+01    1.072e-01
  99.    28    1145    8.793511e+02    0.000e+00    7.711e+01    8.119e-02
  100.    29    1188    8.791891e+02    0.000e+00    3.998e+01    4.076e-02
  101.    30    1226    8.790803e+02    0.000e+00    3.934e+01    6.073e-02
  102.  
  103.                                             First-order      Norm of
  104.  Iter F-count            f(x)  Feasibility   optimality         step
  105.    31    1266    8.789190e+02    0.000e+00    4.349e+01    6.707e-02
  106.    32    1310    8.787813e+02    0.000e+00    1.136e+02    1.354e-02
  107.    33    1348    8.786856e+02    0.000e+00    9.146e+01    3.147e-02
  108.    34    1389    8.784523e+02    0.000e+00    8.672e+00    4.967e-02
  109.    35    1429    8.784436e+02    0.000e+00    1.458e+01    1.623e-02
  110.    36    1471    8.784098e+02    0.000e+00    1.300e+01    2.218e-02
  111.    37    1511    8.784098e+02    0.000e+00    1.120e+01    9.801e-03
  112.    38    1553    8.784066e+02    0.000e+00    1.560e+00    8.690e-03
  113.    39    1591    8.784030e+02    0.000e+00    1.091e+01    9.286e-03
  114.    40    1633    8.783981e+02    0.000e+00    6.687e+00    8.625e-03
  115.    41    1671    8.783945e+02    0.000e+00    7.873e+00    8.182e-03
  116.    42    1714    8.783879e+02    0.000e+00    1.536e+01    3.669e-03
  117.    43    1752    8.783851e+02    0.000e+00    9.900e+00    1.714e-02
  118.    44    1795    8.783826e+02    0.000e+00    4.502e+00    4.064e-03
  119.    45    1833    8.783817e+02    0.000e+00    4.694e+00    1.230e-02
  120.    46    1874    8.783742e+02    0.000e+00    1.809e+00    8.554e-03
  121.    47    1913    8.783731e+02    0.000e+00    5.957e+00    2.235e-02
  122.    48    1955    8.783704e+02    0.000e+00    1.163e+00    1.218e-02
  123.    49    2001    8.783672e+02    0.000e+00    1.862e+00    7.008e-03
  124.    50    2039    8.783648e+02    0.000e+00    2.581e+00    2.122e-02
  125.    51    2080    8.783597e+02    0.000e+00    5.032e+00    2.178e-02
  126.    52    2120    8.783593e+02    0.000e+00    4.132e+00    2.268e-02
  127.    53    2162    8.783558e+02    0.000e+00    2.561e+00    1.666e-02
  128.    54    2201    8.783556e+02    0.000e+00    4.497e+00    2.236e-02
  129.    55    2243    8.783538e+02    0.000e+00    7.177e-01    2.032e-02
  130.    56    2283    8.783535e+02    0.000e+00    2.165e+00    5.695e-03
  131.    57    2325    8.783533e+02    0.000e+00    1.320e-01    4.933e-03
  132.    58    2368    8.783530e+02    0.000e+00    3.629e-02    3.217e-03
  133.    59    2413    8.783526e+02    0.000e+00    7.342e-01    3.521e-03
  134.    60    2456    8.783525e+02    0.000e+00    2.067e-01    3.281e-03
  135.  
  136.                                             First-order      Norm of
  137.  Iter F-count            f(x)  Feasibility   optimality         step
  138.    61    2498    8.783525e+02    0.000e+00    8.017e-01    6.928e-03
  139.    62    2541    8.783524e+02    0.000e+00    3.140e-01    1.401e-03
  140.    63    2584    8.783524e+02    0.000e+00    2.120e-02    9.325e-04
  141.    64    2627    8.783524e+02    0.000e+00    6.495e-02    5.490e-04
  142.    65    2670    8.783524e+02    0.000e+00    5.911e-03    3.331e-04
  143.    66    2715    8.783524e+02    0.000e+00    8.037e-02    4.802e-04
  144.    67    2758    8.783524e+02    0.000e+00    2.990e-02    4.691e-04
  145.    68    2797    8.783524e+02    0.000e+00    5.985e-02    3.647e-04
  146.    69    2839    8.783524e+02    0.000e+00    1.281e-02    3.356e-04
  147.    70    2879    8.783524e+02    0.000e+00    3.658e-02    1.647e-04
  148.    71    2917    8.783524e+02    0.000e+00    5.776e-02    7.449e-04
  149.    72    2954    8.783524e+02    0.000e+00    1.773e-02    1.666e-04
  150.    73    2998    8.783524e+02    0.000e+00    4.435e-03    4.392e-05
  151.    74    3040    8.783524e+02    0.000e+00    3.633e-03    2.515e-05
  152.    75    3082    8.783524e+02    0.000e+00    7.234e-03    9.575e-06
  153.    76    3124    8.783524e+02    0.000e+00    6.753e-03    4.211e-06
  154.  
  155. Local minimum possible. Constraints satisfied.
  156.  
  157. fmincon stopped because the size of the current step is less than
  158. the selected value of the step size tolerance and constraints are
  159. satisfied to within the default value of the constraint tolerance.
  160.  
  161. <stopping criteria details>
  162.  
  163.  
  164. RESULTS FROM POSTERIOR ESTIMATION
  165. parameters
  166.         prior mean     mode    s.d. prior pstdev
  167.  
  168. crhoa       0.500   0.9603  0.0080 beta  0.2000
  169. crhob       0.500   0.1777  0.0813 beta  0.2000
  170. crhog       0.500   0.9703  0.0082 beta  0.2000
  171. crhoqs      0.500   0.7138  0.0587 beta  0.2000
  172. crhoms      0.500   0.1190  0.0620 beta  0.2000
  173. crhopinf    0.500   0.9044  0.0390 beta  0.2000
  174. crhow       0.500   0.9779  0.0114 beta  0.2000
  175. cmap        0.500   0.7383  0.0822 beta  0.2000
  176. cmaw        0.500   0.9451  0.0319 beta  0.2000
  177. csadjcost   4.000   5.5016  1.0193 norm  1.5000
  178. csigma      1.500   1.5292  0.1382 norm  0.3750
  179. chabb       0.700   0.6696  0.0419 beta  0.1000
  180. cprobw      0.500   0.7862  0.0545 beta  0.1000
  181. csigl       2.000   2.1539  0.5845 norm  0.7500
  182. cprobp      0.500   0.6899  0.0511 beta  0.1000
  183. cindw       0.500   0.6284  0.1361 beta  0.1500
  184. cindp       0.500   0.2333  0.0928 beta  0.1500
  185. czcap       0.500   0.5976  0.0998 beta  0.1500
  186. cfc         1.250   1.6350  0.0759 norm  0.1250
  187. crpi        1.500   2.0072  0.1742 norm  0.2500
  188. crr         0.750   0.8233  0.0222 beta  0.1000
  189. cry         0.125   0.0950  0.0236 norm  0.0500
  190. crdy        0.125   0.2295  0.0260 norm  0.0500
  191. constepinf   0.625   0.7873  0.1152 gamm  0.1000
  192. constebeta   0.250   0.1330  0.0517 gamm  0.1000
  193. constelab   0.000   1.5590  0.9954 norm  2.0000
  194. ctrend      0.400   0.4306  0.0137 norm  0.1000
  195. cgy         0.500   0.5157  0.0862 norm  0.2500
  196. calfa       0.300   0.2068  0.0178 norm  0.0500
  197.  
  198. standard deviation of shocks
  199.         prior mean     mode    s.d. prior pstdev
  200.  
  201. ea          0.100   0.4397  0.0257 invg  2.0000
  202. eb          0.100   0.2352  0.0218 invg  2.0000
  203. eg          0.100   0.5014  0.0278 invg  2.0000
  204. eqs         0.100   0.4122  0.0412 invg  2.0000
  205. em          0.100   0.2293  0.0135 invg  2.0000
  206. epinf       0.100   0.1240  0.0150 invg  2.0000
  207. ew          0.100   0.3071  0.0253 invg  2.0000
  208.  
  209.  
  210. Log data density [Laplace approximation] is -962.393086.
  211.  
  212. Total computing time : 0h01m46s
  213. Note: warning(s) encountered in MATLAB/Octave code
  214. >> dynare usmodel_17nov2015.mod
  215.  
  216. Configuring Dynare ...
  217. [mex] Generalized QZ.
  218. [mex] Sylvester equation solution.
  219. [mex] Kronecker products.
  220. [mex] Sparse kronecker products.
  221. [mex] Local state space iteration (second order).
  222. [mex] Bytecode evaluation.
  223. [mex] k-order perturbation solver.
  224. [mex] k-order solution simulation.
  225. [mex] Quasi Monte-Carlo sequence (Sobol).
  226. [mex] Markov Switching SBVAR.
  227.  
  228. Starting Dynare (version 4.4.3).
  229. Starting preprocessing of the model file ...
  230. Found 40 equation(s).
  231. Evaluating expressions...done
  232. Computing static model derivatives:
  233.  - order 1
  234. Computing dynamic model derivatives:
  235.  - order 1
  236.  - order 2
  237. Processing outputs ...done
  238. Preprocessing completed.
  239. Starting MATLAB/Octave computing.
  240.  
  241. Warning: The file '/Applications/Dynare/4.4.3/matlab/dynare.m' could not be cleared because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  242. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  243.   In dynare (line 180)
  244. Warning: The file '/Users/prabalshrestha/Documents/_Semester 2/Macro II/Part 2/Set 3/nbb finale/Part 1 - 203/usmodel_17nov2015.m' could not be cleared
  245. because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  246. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  247.   In dynare (line 180)
  248. Warning: The file '/Applications/Dynare/4.4.3/matlab/dynare.m' could not be cleared because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  249. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  250.   In dynare (line 180)
  251. Warning: The file '/Users/prabalshrestha/Documents/_Semester 2/Macro II/Part 2/Set 3/nbb finale/Part 1 - 203/usmodel_17nov2015.m' could not be cleared
  252. because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  253. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  254.   In dynare (line 180)
  255. Warning: The file '/Applications/Dynare/4.4.3/matlab/dynare.m' could not be cleared because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  256. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  257.   In dynare (line 180)
  258. Warning: The file '/Users/prabalshrestha/Documents/_Semester 2/Macro II/Part 2/Set 3/nbb finale/Part 1 - 203/usmodel_17nov2015.m' could not be cleared
  259. because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  260. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  261.   In dynare (line 180)
  262.  
  263. You did not declare endogenous variables after the estimation/calib_smoother command.
  264.  
  265.  
  266. Loading 273 observations from usmodel_data_SW_data_nov17_2015_financial.mat
  267.  
  268. Restricting the sample to observations 71 to 273. Using in total 203 observations.
  269. Initial value of the log posterior (or likelihood): -1127.7631
  270.  
  271. RESULTS FROM POSTERIOR ESTIMATION
  272. parameters
  273.         prior mean     mode    s.d. prior pstdev
  274.  
  275. crhoa       0.500   0.9603  0.0080 beta  0.2000
  276. crhob       0.500   0.1777  0.0813 beta  0.2000
  277. crhog       0.500   0.9703  0.0082 beta  0.2000
  278. crhoqs      0.500   0.7138  0.0587 beta  0.2000
  279. crhoms      0.500   0.1190  0.0620 beta  0.2000
  280. crhopinf    0.500   0.9044  0.0390 beta  0.2000
  281. crhow       0.500   0.9779  0.0114 beta  0.2000
  282. cmap        0.500   0.7383  0.0822 beta  0.2000
  283. cmaw        0.500   0.9451  0.0319 beta  0.2000
  284. csadjcost   4.000   5.5016  1.0193 norm  1.5000
  285. csigma      1.500   1.5292  0.1382 norm  0.3750
  286. chabb       0.700   0.6696  0.0419 beta  0.1000
  287. cprobw      0.500   0.7862  0.0545 beta  0.1000
  288. csigl       2.000   2.1539  0.5845 norm  0.7500
  289. cprobp      0.500   0.6899  0.0511 beta  0.1000
  290. cindw       0.500   0.6284  0.1361 beta  0.1500
  291. cindp       0.500   0.2333  0.0928 beta  0.1500
  292. czcap       0.500   0.5976  0.0998 beta  0.1500
  293. cfc         1.250   1.6350  0.0759 norm  0.1250
  294. crpi        1.500   2.0072  0.1742 norm  0.2500
  295. crr         0.750   0.8233  0.0222 beta  0.1000
  296. cry         0.125   0.0950  0.0236 norm  0.0500
  297. crdy        0.125   0.2295  0.0260 norm  0.0500
  298. constepinf   0.625   0.7873  0.1152 gamm  0.1000
  299. constebeta   0.250   0.1330  0.0517 gamm  0.1000
  300. constelab   0.000   1.5590  0.9954 norm  2.0000
  301. ctrend      0.400   0.4306  0.0137 norm  0.1000
  302. cgy         0.500   0.5157  0.0862 norm  0.2500
  303. calfa       0.300   0.2068  0.0178 norm  0.0500
  304.  
  305. standard deviation of shocks
  306.         prior mean     mode    s.d. prior pstdev
  307.  
  308. ea          0.100   0.4397  0.0257 invg  2.0000
  309. eb          0.100   0.2352  0.0218 invg  2.0000
  310. eg          0.100   0.5014  0.0278 invg  2.0000
  311. eqs         0.100   0.4122  0.0412 invg  2.0000
  312. em          0.100   0.2293  0.0135 invg  2.0000
  313. epinf       0.100   0.1240  0.0150 invg  2.0000
  314. ew          0.100   0.3071  0.0253 invg  2.0000
  315.  
  316.  
  317. Log data density [Laplace approximation] is -1211.803756.
  318.  
  319. Total computing time : 0h00m05s
  320. Note: warning(s) encountered in MATLAB/Octave code
  321. >> dynare usmodel_17nov2015.mod
  322.  
  323. Configuring Dynare ...
  324. [mex] Generalized QZ.
  325. [mex] Sylvester equation solution.
  326. [mex] Kronecker products.
  327. [mex] Sparse kronecker products.
  328. [mex] Local state space iteration (second order).
  329. [mex] Bytecode evaluation.
  330. [mex] k-order perturbation solver.
  331. [mex] k-order solution simulation.
  332. [mex] Quasi Monte-Carlo sequence (Sobol).
  333. [mex] Markov Switching SBVAR.
  334.  
  335. Starting Dynare (version 4.4.3).
  336. Starting preprocessing of the model file ...
  337. Found 40 equation(s).
  338. Evaluating expressions...done
  339. Computing static model derivatives:
  340.  - order 1
  341. Computing dynamic model derivatives:
  342.  - order 1
  343.  - order 2
  344. Processing outputs ...done
  345. Preprocessing completed.
  346. Starting MATLAB/Octave computing.
  347.  
  348. Warning: The file '/Applications/Dynare/4.4.3/matlab/dynare.m' could not be cleared because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  349. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  350.   In dynare (line 180)
  351. Warning: The file '/Users/prabalshrestha/Documents/_Semester 2/Macro II/Part 2/Set 3/nbb finale/Part 1 - 203/usmodel_17nov2015.m' could not be cleared
  352. because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  353. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  354.   In dynare (line 180)
  355. Warning: The file '/Applications/Dynare/4.4.3/matlab/dynare.m' could not be cleared because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  356. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  357.   In dynare (line 180)
  358. Warning: The file '/Users/prabalshrestha/Documents/_Semester 2/Macro II/Part 2/Set 3/nbb finale/Part 1 - 203/usmodel_17nov2015.m' could not be cleared
  359. because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  360. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  361.   In dynare (line 180)
  362. Warning: The file '/Applications/Dynare/4.4.3/matlab/dynare.m' could not be cleared because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  363. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  364.   In dynare (line 180)
  365. Warning: The file '/Users/prabalshrestha/Documents/_Semester 2/Macro II/Part 2/Set 3/nbb finale/Part 1 - 203/usmodel_17nov2015.m' could not be cleared
  366. because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  367. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  368.   In dynare (line 180)
  369.  
  370. Loading 273 observations from usmodel_data_SW_data_nov17_2015_financial.mat
  371.  
  372. Restricting the sample to observations 71 to 273. Using in total 203 observations.
  373. Initial value of the log posterior (or likelihood): -1127.7631
  374.  
  375. RESULTS FROM POSTERIOR ESTIMATION
  376. parameters
  377.         prior mean     mode    s.d. prior pstdev
  378.  
  379. crhoa       0.500   0.9603  0.0080 beta  0.2000
  380. crhob       0.500   0.1777  0.0813 beta  0.2000
  381. crhog       0.500   0.9703  0.0082 beta  0.2000
  382. crhoqs      0.500   0.7138  0.0587 beta  0.2000
  383. crhoms      0.500   0.1190  0.0620 beta  0.2000
  384. crhopinf    0.500   0.9044  0.0390 beta  0.2000
  385. crhow       0.500   0.9779  0.0114 beta  0.2000
  386. cmap        0.500   0.7383  0.0822 beta  0.2000
  387. cmaw        0.500   0.9451  0.0319 beta  0.2000
  388. csadjcost   4.000   5.5016  1.0193 norm  1.5000
  389. csigma      1.500   1.5292  0.1382 norm  0.3750
  390. chabb       0.700   0.6696  0.0419 beta  0.1000
  391. cprobw      0.500   0.7862  0.0545 beta  0.1000
  392. csigl       2.000   2.1539  0.5845 norm  0.7500
  393. cprobp      0.500   0.6899  0.0511 beta  0.1000
  394. cindw       0.500   0.6284  0.1361 beta  0.1500
  395. cindp       0.500   0.2333  0.0928 beta  0.1500
  396. czcap       0.500   0.5976  0.0998 beta  0.1500
  397. cfc         1.250   1.6350  0.0759 norm  0.1250
  398. crpi        1.500   2.0072  0.1742 norm  0.2500
  399. crr         0.750   0.8233  0.0222 beta  0.1000
  400. cry         0.125   0.0950  0.0236 norm  0.0500
  401. crdy        0.125   0.2295  0.0260 norm  0.0500
  402. constepinf   0.625   0.7873  0.1152 gamm  0.1000
  403. constebeta   0.250   0.1330  0.0517 gamm  0.1000
  404. constelab   0.000   1.5590  0.9954 norm  2.0000
  405. ctrend      0.400   0.4306  0.0137 norm  0.1000
  406. cgy         0.500   0.5157  0.0862 norm  0.2500
  407. calfa       0.300   0.2068  0.0178 norm  0.0500
  408.  
  409. standard deviation of shocks
  410.         prior mean     mode    s.d. prior pstdev
  411.  
  412. ea          0.100   0.4397  0.0257 invg  2.0000
  413. eb          0.100   0.2352  0.0218 invg  2.0000
  414. eg          0.100   0.5014  0.0278 invg  2.0000
  415. eqs         0.100   0.4122  0.0412 invg  2.0000
  416. em          0.100   0.2293  0.0135 invg  2.0000
  417. epinf       0.100   0.1240  0.0150 invg  2.0000
  418. ew          0.100   0.3071  0.0253 invg  2.0000
  419.  
  420.  
  421. Log data density [Laplace approximation] is -1211.803756.
  422.  
  423. Etimation::mcmc: One Chain mode.
  424. Estimation::mcmc: Initialization at the posterior mode.
  425.  
  426. Estimation::mcmc: Write details about the MCMC... Ok!
  427. Estimation::mcmc: Details about the MCMC are available in usmodel_17nov2015/metropolis/usmodel_17nov2015_mh_history_0.mat
  428.  
  429.  
  430. Estimation::mcmc: Number of mh files: 1 per block.
  431. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of generated files: 1.
  432. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of iterations: 1000.
  433. Estimation::mcmc: Current acceptance ratio per chain:
  434.                                                        Chain  1: 41.5584%
  435. Warning: estimation:: MCMC convergence diagnostics are not computed because the total number of iterations is less than 2000!
  436. > In McMCDiagnostics (line 78)
  437.   In dynare_estimation_1 (line 793)
  438.   In dynare_estimation (line 89)
  439.   In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 537)
  440.   In dynare (line 180)
  441. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of MH draws: 1000.
  442. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of generated MH files: 1.
  443. Estimation::mcmc: I'll use mh-files 1 to 1.
  444. Estimation::mcmc: In MH-file number 1 I'll start at line 200.
  445. Estimation::mcmc: Finally I keep 800 draws.
  446.  
  447. Estimation::marginal density: I'm computing the posterior mean and covariance...  Done!
  448. Estimation::marginal density: I'm computing the posterior log marginal density (modified harmonic mean)... Done!
  449.  
  450.  
  451. ESTIMATION RESULTS
  452.  
  453. Log data density is -1206.637843.
  454. posterior_moments: There are not enough draws computes to compute HPD Intervals. Skipping their computation.
  455. posterior_moments: There are not enough draws computes to compute deciles. Skipping their computation.
  456.  
  457. parameters
  458.             prior mean   post. mean        90% HPD interval    prior       pstdev
  459.  
  460. crhoa            0.500       0.9643      0.9522      0.9761   beta        0.2000
  461. crhob            0.500       0.3708      0.2511      0.5537   beta        0.2000
  462. crhog            0.500       0.9708      0.9643      0.9787   beta        0.2000
  463. crhoqs           0.500       0.8016      0.7526      0.8377   beta        0.2000
  464. crhoms           0.500       0.1666      0.0736      0.2346   beta        0.2000
  465. crhopinf         0.500       0.9065      0.8663      0.9374   beta        0.2000
  466. crhow            0.500       0.9752      0.9612      0.9879   beta        0.2000
  467. cmap             0.500       0.7967      0.7471      0.8520   beta        0.2000
  468. cmaw             0.500       0.9539      0.9299      0.9748   beta        0.2000
  469. csadjcost        4.000       5.2690      4.5781      6.0313   norm        1.5000
  470. csigma           1.500       1.4718      1.2378      1.6036   norm        0.3750
  471. chabb            0.700       0.6485      0.5763      0.7070   beta        0.1000
  472. cprobw           0.500       0.8285      0.7923      0.8657   beta        0.1000
  473. csigl            2.000       2.2501      1.7162      2.8010   norm        0.7500
  474. cprobp           0.500       0.7762      0.7364      0.8170   beta        0.1000
  475. cindw            0.500       0.7518      0.6433      0.8458   beta        0.1500
  476. cindp            0.500       0.2247      0.1282      0.3328   beta        0.1500
  477. czcap            0.500       0.7935      0.6928      0.8773   beta        0.1500
  478. cfc              1.250       1.6106      1.5405      1.6564   norm        0.1250
  479. crpi             1.500       1.7976      1.6445      1.9842   norm        0.2500
  480. crr              0.750       0.8220      0.7884      0.8467   beta        0.1000
  481. cry              0.125       0.0591      0.0359      0.0925   norm        0.0500
  482. crdy             0.125       0.2262      0.2053      0.2456   norm        0.0500
  483. constepinf        0.625       0.8150      0.6245      0.9904   gamma       0.1000
  484. constebeta        0.250       0.1166      0.0651      0.1519   gamma       0.1000
  485. constelab        0.000       0.1815     -1.4788      2.0726   norm        2.0000
  486. ctrend           0.400       0.4078      0.3858      0.4234   norm        0.1000
  487. cgy              0.500       0.5274      0.4552      0.6375   norm        0.2500
  488. calfa            0.300       0.2053      0.1867      0.2198   norm        0.0500
  489.  
  490. standard deviation of shocks
  491.             prior mean   post. mean        90% HPD interval    prior       pstdev
  492.  
  493. ea               0.100       0.4462      0.4131      0.4704   invg        2.0000
  494. eb               0.100       0.2106      0.1578      0.2618   invg        2.0000
  495. eg               0.100       0.4972      0.4579      0.5274   invg        2.0000
  496. eqs              0.100       0.3609      0.3286      0.3965   invg        2.0000
  497. em               0.100       0.2247      0.2105      0.2386   invg        2.0000
  498. epinf            0.100       0.1357      0.1249      0.1463   invg        2.0000
  499. ew               0.100       0.3674      0.3453      0.3895   invg        2.0000
  500. Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (mean)
  501. Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (mean), done!
  502. Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (point)
  503. Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (point), done!
  504. Total computing time : 0h01m08s
  505. Note: warning(s) encountered in MATLAB/Octave code
  506. >> dynare usmodel_17nov2015.mod
  507.  
  508. Configuring Dynare ...
  509. [mex] Generalized QZ.
  510. [mex] Sylvester equation solution.
  511. [mex] Kronecker products.
  512. [mex] Sparse kronecker products.
  513. [mex] Local state space iteration (second order).
  514. [mex] Bytecode evaluation.
  515. [mex] k-order perturbation solver.
  516. [mex] k-order solution simulation.
  517. [mex] Quasi Monte-Carlo sequence (Sobol).
  518. [mex] Markov Switching SBVAR.
  519.  
  520. Starting Dynare (version 4.4.3).
  521. Starting preprocessing of the model file ...
  522. Found 40 equation(s).
  523. Evaluating expressions...done
  524. Computing static model derivatives:
  525.  - order 1
  526. Computing dynamic model derivatives:
  527.  - order 1
  528.  - order 2
  529. Processing outputs ...done
  530. Preprocessing completed.
  531. Starting MATLAB/Octave computing.
  532.  
  533. Warning: The file '/Applications/Dynare/4.4.3/matlab/dynare.m' could not be cleared because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  534. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  535.   In dynare (line 180)
  536. Warning: The file '/Users/prabalshrestha/Documents/_Semester 2/Macro II/Part 2/Set 3/nbb finale/Part 1 - 203/usmodel_17nov2015.m' could not be cleared
  537. because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  538. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  539.   In dynare (line 180)
  540. Warning: The file '/Applications/Dynare/4.4.3/matlab/dynare.m' could not be cleared because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  541. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  542.   In dynare (line 180)
  543. Warning: The file '/Users/prabalshrestha/Documents/_Semester 2/Macro II/Part 2/Set 3/nbb finale/Part 1 - 203/usmodel_17nov2015.m' could not be cleared
  544. because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  545. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  546.   In dynare (line 180)
  547. Warning: The file '/Applications/Dynare/4.4.3/matlab/dynare.m' could not be cleared because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  548. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  549.   In dynare (line 180)
  550. Warning: The file '/Users/prabalshrestha/Documents/_Semester 2/Macro II/Part 2/Set 3/nbb finale/Part 1 - 203/usmodel_17nov2015.m' could not be cleared
  551. because it contains MATLAB code that is currently executing.
  552. > In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 7)
  553.   In dynare (line 180)
  554.  
  555. Loading 273 observations from usmodel_data_SW_data_nov17_2015_financial.mat
  556.  
  557. Restricting the sample to observations 71 to 273. Using in total 203 observations.
  558. Initial value of the log posterior (or likelihood): -1127.7631
  559.  
  560. RESULTS FROM POSTERIOR ESTIMATION
  561. parameters
  562.         prior mean     mode    s.d. prior pstdev
  563.  
  564. crhoa       0.500   0.9603  0.0080 beta  0.2000
  565. crhob       0.500   0.1777  0.0813 beta  0.2000
  566. crhog       0.500   0.9703  0.0082 beta  0.2000
  567. crhoqs      0.500   0.7138  0.0587 beta  0.2000
  568. crhoms      0.500   0.1190  0.0620 beta  0.2000
  569. crhopinf    0.500   0.9044  0.0390 beta  0.2000
  570. crhow       0.500   0.9779  0.0114 beta  0.2000
  571. cmap        0.500   0.7383  0.0822 beta  0.2000
  572. cmaw        0.500   0.9451  0.0319 beta  0.2000
  573. csadjcost   4.000   5.5016  1.0193 norm  1.5000
  574. csigma      1.500   1.5292  0.1382 norm  0.3750
  575. chabb       0.700   0.6696  0.0419 beta  0.1000
  576. cprobw      0.500   0.7862  0.0545 beta  0.1000
  577. csigl       2.000   2.1539  0.5845 norm  0.7500
  578. cprobp      0.500   0.6899  0.0511 beta  0.1000
  579. cindw       0.500   0.6284  0.1361 beta  0.1500
  580. cindp       0.500   0.2333  0.0928 beta  0.1500
  581. czcap       0.500   0.5976  0.0998 beta  0.1500
  582. cfc         1.250   1.6350  0.0759 norm  0.1250
  583. crpi        1.500   2.0072  0.1742 norm  0.2500
  584. crr         0.750   0.8233  0.0222 beta  0.1000
  585. cry         0.125   0.0950  0.0236 norm  0.0500
  586. crdy        0.125   0.2295  0.0260 norm  0.0500
  587. constepinf   0.625   0.7873  0.1152 gamm  0.1000
  588. constebeta   0.250   0.1330  0.0517 gamm  0.1000
  589. constelab   0.000   1.5590  0.9954 norm  2.0000
  590. ctrend      0.400   0.4306  0.0137 norm  0.1000
  591. cgy         0.500   0.5157  0.0862 norm  0.2500
  592. calfa       0.300   0.2068  0.0178 norm  0.0500
  593.  
  594. standard deviation of shocks
  595.         prior mean     mode    s.d. prior pstdev
  596.  
  597. ea          0.100   0.4397  0.0257 invg  2.0000
  598. eb          0.100   0.2352  0.0218 invg  2.0000
  599. eg          0.100   0.5014  0.0278 invg  2.0000
  600. eqs         0.100   0.4122  0.0412 invg  2.0000
  601. em          0.100   0.2293  0.0135 invg  2.0000
  602. epinf       0.100   0.1240  0.0150 invg  2.0000
  603. ew          0.100   0.3071  0.0253 invg  2.0000
  604.  
  605.  
  606. Log data density [Laplace approximation] is -1211.803756.
  607.  
  608. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of MH draws: 1000.
  609. Estimation::mcmc: Total number of generated MH files: 1.
  610. Estimation::mcmc: I'll use mh-files 1 to 1.
  611. Estimation::mcmc: In MH-file number 1 I'll start at line 200.
  612. Estimation::mcmc: Finally I keep 800 draws.
  613.  
  614. Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (mean)
  615. Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (mean), done!
  616. Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (point)
  617. Estimation::mcmc: Forecasted variables (point), done!
  618. Warning: Some of the parameters have no value (ccs, cinvs, crdpi) when using stoch_simul. If these parameters are not initialized in a steadystate file,
  619. Dynare may not be able to solve the model...
  620. > In test_for_deep_parameters_calibration (line 46)
  621.   In stoch_simul (line 27)
  622.   In usmodel_17nov2015 (line 548)
  623.   In dynare (line 180)
  624.  
  625. MODEL SUMMARY
  626.  
  627.   Number of variables:         40
  628.   Number of stochastic shocks: 7
  629.   Number of state variables:   20
  630.   Number of jumpers:           12
  631.   Number of static variables:  14
  632.  
  633.  
  634. MATRIX OF COVARIANCE OF EXOGENOUS SHOCKS
  635.  
  636. Variables      ea        eb        eg        eqs       em       epinf      ew    
  637. ea           0.193302  0.000000  0.000000  0.000000  0.000000  0.000000  0.000000
  638. eb           0.000000  0.055301  0.000000  0.000000  0.000000  0.000000  0.000000
  639. eg           0.000000  0.000000  0.251398  0.000000  0.000000  0.000000  0.000000
  640. eqs          0.000000  0.000000  0.000000  0.169910  0.000000  0.000000  0.000000
  641. em           0.000000  0.000000  0.000000  0.000000  0.052561  0.000000  0.000000
  642. epinf        0.000000  0.000000  0.000000  0.000000  0.000000  0.015372  0.000000
  643. ew           0.000000  0.000000  0.000000  0.000000  0.000000  0.000000  0.094312
  644.  
  645. POLICY AND TRANSITION FUNCTIONS
  646.                                  y               c               inve            labobs          pinfobs         w               robs  
  647. Constant                           0               0               0        1.558952        0.787287               0        1.586544
  648. ewma(-1)                    2.668032        5.036945       -2.272316        2.205084       -6.167060       -3.615586       -1.530002
  649. epinfma(-1)                 1.963421        0.680208        5.688944        0.903683       -4.011983        4.914660       -0.939253
  650. yf(-1)                     -0.172237       -0.178453       -0.255807       -0.118087       -0.027386       -0.022222        0.177376
  651. y(-1)                       0.172237        0.178453        0.255807        0.118087        0.027386        0.022222       -0.177376
  652. r(-1)                      -0.617862       -0.640159       -0.917653       -0.423610       -0.098240       -0.079715        0.636295
  653. a(-1)                       0.237737        0.252954        0.786166       -0.941781       -0.115756        0.126807       -0.182682
  654. b(-1)                       0.300527        0.372894        0.241193        0.207782        0.009160        0.020452        0.077268
  655. g(-1)                       0.908620       -0.107628       -0.253297        0.633247        0.025801        0.008820        0.065555
  656. qs(-1)                      0.524862        0.008535        2.633830        0.360816        0.041416        0.057528        0.066035
  657. ms(-1)                     -0.100221       -0.102945       -0.151825       -0.068687       -0.016478       -0.013197        0.088450
  658. spinf(-1)                  -2.405092       -0.833220       -6.968671       -1.106966        4.914478       -6.020212        1.150538
  659. sw(-1)                     -2.760562       -5.211632        2.351122       -2.281559        6.380940        3.740979        1.583065
  660. kpf(-1)                     0.021277        0.020470        0.037189        0.014621        0.007250        0.002393        0.001598
  661. kp(-1)                     -0.076556        0.048307       -0.049568       -0.195936       -0.029153        0.016001       -0.029195
  662. cf(-1)                      0.011983        0.017017        0.002418        0.008338       -0.001757        0.000258       -0.070253
  663. invef(-1)                   0.009652        0.011222        0.010286        0.006658        0.000703        0.000824       -0.024097
  664. c(-1)                       0.463429        0.703432       -0.064276        0.322182        0.009915        0.012896        0.117659
  665. inve(-1)                    0.167659        0.006744        0.832014        0.116316        0.004207        0.007218        0.042786
  666. pinf(-1)                   -0.059573       -0.082112       -0.141772       -0.069553        0.252869        0.294778        0.075007
  667. w(-1)                       0.026881       -0.039187       -0.061092       -0.058751        0.067810        0.816587        0.030669
  668. ea                          0.730532        0.206215        0.684066       -0.644168       -0.106832        0.136743       -0.155398
  669. eb                          1.690810        2.097960        1.356989        1.169015        0.051534        0.115065        0.434722
  670. eg                          0.936466       -0.110927       -0.261059        0.652653        0.026591        0.009091        0.067564
  671. eqs                         0.735326        0.011958        3.689968        0.505500        0.058023        0.080596        0.092514
  672. em                         -0.842343       -0.865240       -1.276066       -0.577304       -0.138497       -0.110916        0.743414
  673. epinf                      -0.818173       -0.417137       -1.860939       -0.365531        1.904791       -2.164301        0.474015
  674. ew                         -0.042759       -0.254252       -0.037285       -0.191566        0.349559        1.703825        0.113439
  675.  
  676.  
  677. THEORETICAL MOMENTS
  678.  
  679. VARIABLE      MEAN    STD. DEV.   VARIANCE
  680. y              0.0000     5.4261    29.4421
  681. c              0.0000     5.5401    30.6923
  682. inve           0.0000    11.3506   128.8356
  683. labobs         1.5590     2.6879     7.2248
  684. pinfobs        0.7873     0.5383     0.2898
  685. w              0.0000     3.0832     9.5063
  686. robs           1.5865     0.5978     0.3573
  687.  
  688.  
  689.  
  690. VARIANCE DECOMPOSITION (in percent)
  691.  
  692.             ea     eb     eg    eqs     em   epinf    ew  
  693. y          32.88   1.56   3.33  10.89   3.12   8.92  39.29
  694. c          14.67   2.26   7.94   6.82   2.99   5.94  59.39
  695. inve       22.19   0.26   6.63  44.64   2.04   9.70  14.56
  696. labobs      2.67   2.88   9.46  10.94   5.03   9.63  59.38
  697. pinfobs     4.08   0.35   1.16   2.21   3.74  34.33  54.13
  698. w          28.10   0.26   1.06   8.92   1.98  39.89  19.79
  699. robs       11.07   7.00   4.82  20.00  14.92   7.95  34.24
  700.  
  701.  
  702.  
  703. MATRIX OF CORRELATIONS
  704.  
  705. Variables      y        c       inve    labobs  pinfobs     w       robs  
  706. y             1.0000   0.8454   0.8108   0.7484  -0.4014   0.4790  -0.3661
  707. c             0.8454   1.0000   0.7091   0.6322  -0.5219   0.3531  -0.5678
  708. inve          0.8108   0.7091   1.0000   0.5620  -0.2386   0.5266  -0.1275
  709. labobs        0.7484   0.6322   0.5620   1.0000  -0.3687   0.0420  -0.2183
  710. pinfobs      -0.4014  -0.5219  -0.2386  -0.3687   1.0000   0.1097   0.6731
  711. w             0.4790   0.3531   0.5266   0.0420   0.1097   1.0000   0.0097
  712. robs         -0.3661  -0.5678  -0.1275  -0.2183   0.6731   0.0097   1.0000
  713.  
  714.  
  715.  
  716. COEFFICIENTS OF AUTOCORRELATION
  717.  
  718. Order        1       2       3       4       5  
  719. y          0.9859  0.9642  0.9381  0.9093  0.8790
  720. c          0.9927  0.9811  0.9672  0.9519  0.9356
  721. inve       0.9824  0.9438  0.8934  0.8371  0.7791
  722. labobs     0.9708  0.9334  0.8929  0.8513  0.8099
  723. pinfobs    0.8539  0.7510  0.6674  0.5966  0.5364
  724. w          0.9793  0.9551  0.9272  0.8962  0.8630
  725. robs       0.9098  0.8072  0.7148  0.6348  0.5665
  726.  
  727. Loading 273 observations from usmodel_data_SW_data_nov17_2015_financial.mat
  728.  
  729. Restricting the sample to observations 71 to 273. Using in total 203 observations.
  730. Total computing time : 0h01m59s
  731. Note: warning(s) encountered in MATLAB/Octave code
  732. >>
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