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  1. This is a solid piece of geolocating, for which I compliment Eliot Higgins. There's no doubt that this video was shot on the intersection next to the Trinity Cathedral.
  2. However, a couple of remarks.
  3. 1. Location. The BUK video was first released on the Facebook page of Arsen Avakov, who was then the Minister of Interior of Ukraine. He wrote that the video was recorded in the border town Krasnodon. Untrue. Later the Russians said it was Krasnoarmeisk, also untrue. Ergo: both sides lied about the real location.
  4. https://www.facebook.com/arsen.avakov.1/posts/670837696339673
  5. 2. Time. Avakov claimed the video was shot on 18 July at 04:50 AM. That's only 10 minutes after sunrise.
  6. http://www.timeanddate.com/sun/ukraine/luhansk?month=7&year=2014
  7. Apart from the fact that the sky is too light, the shadows in the video don't match with that time of day. You would expect to see long, stretched shadows.
  8. http://www.pbase.com/image/127342670
  9. 3. Date. There is new, circumstantial evidence that this video was not shot on July 18, but earlier. I cannot say much about, because we will reveal it in our tv-broadcast end of June.
  10. 4. Control. Who controlled the spot where the BUK drove? The rebels or the government? Three days before the downing of MH17, on July 14, the Ukrainian army launched an attack to regain control of the Luhansk airport. They used the E40 road from the north to move to the airport in the south. A wide corridor around the E40 was created and several districts of Lugansk came back under government control. On July 18th, the government firmly controlled the airport and areas around the E40. The intersection where the BUK was filmed, is 2.5 km from the E40. It's not clear who controlled it on July 18th. It could have been both sides. This map suggests the government controlled it, but it's unclear how precise the LiveUAMap is.
  11. https://twitter.com/vverweij/status/554741270669967361
  12. 5. Route. If this video is showing the BUK that was used to attack MH17, why was it escaping to Russia via the least logical route? From the alleged launch site, Lugansk is not on the shortest way to Russia. In fact it's a detour of at least 146 km.
  13. http://tinyurl.com/plrhaj7
  14. The shortest route would have been only 17 km.
  15. http://tinyurl.com/pfeskg8
  16. 6. Direction. The BUK is driving from the north-west to the south-east in the video. If the BUK was coming from the launch site in the south, you would expect it to drive the reverse way, from the south to the north.
  17. Considering all the facts, I think it's unlikely that this video is truely showing the BUK that was used to hit MH17, fleeing to Russia via Lugansk. I think it was a propaganda setup by the Ukrainians and that the video was either shot earlier, or was a Ukranian BUK system moving through government controlled area.
  18. regards,
  19.  
  20. Vincent Verweij
  21. journalist
  22. KRO Television
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