MLB Edge (DK) - Wednesday, July 27th
By JMToWin, Last Updated 1 hour ago (DK Premium)

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Wednesday, July 27th

Today, we have a typical, Wednesday split slate – with six games early and nine games late. The one catch today is that the early games start at noon Eastern, rather than starting at 1:00. If you’re planning to play the early slate, make sure you are aware of that; players will lock an hour earlier than normal.
As always, we’re going to go ahead and cover the early slate in “overview style,” then we’ll shift our focus to the strange and beautiful nine-game slate tonight gives us.
An Overview Of The Early Slate

What would you say if I told you there are nine viable pitching options on a slate with 12 pitchers total? Well, that’s about what we’re seeing here today.
Here are my thoughts (in descending order of price) on each guy:
Madison Bumgarner is the safest play on the day, though there will almost certainly be at least two other pitchers who top him today in a point-per-dollar sense. If you can fit him into your cash game lineup, I would love to use him there; in tournaments, I would rather bite the bullet and fade Bumgarner in search of greater point-per-dollar upside elsewhere.
Brandon McCarthy has not yet reached 90 pitches in a start. He’s also not a huge strikeout guy. But he’s priced higher than Stephen Strasburg, because: Rays. I don’t imagine he’ll go a whole lot higher than 20 to 25 points, so I don’t love him as a tourney play, but even at this price, he’s surprisingly palatable, and is certainly a viable step-down-from-Bumgarner option in cash.
Stephen Strasburg has to take on the Indians, who are tough to strike out, and who put up their fair share of runs, but I still like him as a tourney option, simply because he provides the greatest upside on the slate.
Carlos Carrasco profiles similar to Danny Salazar yesterday against this same Nationals team: they lower his strikeout upside and present a bit of risk, but there is also some really nice strikeout upside here simply due to Carrasco’s skills in this department. I would rather dive in with Strasburg than with Carrasco in tourneys; neither guy is particularly safe, but each guy has the ability to put up the highest score on the day if they get rolling.
Adam Conley succeeds by keeping hitters off-balance and preventing hard contact, which doesn’t really make him a premium DFS option. At the same time, however, he’s facing a Phillies offense that provides a high-floor matchup for pitchers; I like Conley just fine in cash games, though I would generally like to find higher upside at pitcher than what Conley offers in tourneys.
Matt Moore is probably my next-favorite tourney option, as he has sneaky strikeout upside, and most people do not realize just how awful the Dodgers have been this year against left-handed pitching. Here’s a hint: only the Phillies and Braves have a lower wOBA than the Dodgers against southpaws this year. Best of all, Moore got smoked by the Dodgers when he faced them earlier this year, which should chase some people away.
Okay, so I don’t actually want to roster Michael Fulmer against the Red Sox. But he’s yet another pitcher whom we would typically prefer to roster rather than pick on.
R.A. Dickey is miles away from cash game relevance, but he is a guy you can look to in tourneys because: Padres. He could land in the five- to seven-point range, or he could swing over to the 25- to 30-point range. You’re really just guessing here, but there is certainly a path by which Dickey could be fantasy-relevant today.
The Tigers have been shockingly ineffective this year against southpaws, and Eduardo Rodriguez seems to have figured things out enough for us to trust him again. He is definitely underpriced today, though he also carries a decent chunk of risk around with him due to his inconsistency and the dangerous nature of the Tigers lineup. I could see pairing him with Strasburg in tourneys, or even pairing him with Matt Moore and loading up on bats; there’s upside here, but there is definitely also risk.
Even Luis Perdomo could be considered today, as he has average strikeout stuff to righties, and he keeps the ball on the ground against righties a massive 64.9% of the time, with a tiny 24.8% hard-hit rate to go with that. The Jays are likely to be popular bats today, but I would generally avoid the righties in this lineup. Michael Saunders is a somewhat viable play, simply because Perdomo allows so much hard contact to lefties, but that’s really as far as my interest extends in this spot.
Zach Eflin is probably our favorite guy to pick on, in spite of his solid recent outings. He has slightly below-average strikeout stuff to righties and a complete inability to strike out lefties at all. Lefties also make pretty solid contact against him; Eflin does hold righties to a slightly below-average hard-hit rate, but it’s not to such an extent that we need to shy away from a power bat like Giancarlo Stanton or Marcell Ozuna.
We can also string together hits with the Giants, who will be facing Dan Straily. Straily has shown nice strikeout stuff to righties this year, but he has not been so fortunate against lefties. The Giants don’t give us much hope for a home run, but the lefties in this lineup should do just fine for you in cash games, and you could run out a Giants stack in tourneys.
Because of how little there is to like at hitter today, I feel the best bet in tourneys is to run out a few rosters with a few different stacks. Go with full stacks – grabbing as much potential upside in one spot as you can. While I rarely stack myself, I feel this is a trap slate for “picking and choosing” hitters, as so many games on this slate should have disappointing offensive performances. If you stack the right spot – if the pitcher you stack against is the one pitcher on the slate who collapses – you’ll probably be one of the only people with the right stack on the day, as most others will think, “There’s really no spot to like a ton,” and will therefore avoid stacking altogether.
It’s a pretty ugly slate, honestly. But there are a few ways to take advantage of what this slate offers, and there are certainly some low-owned paths that could pay off big in tourneys.
A Clear Top Tier Arm

In MLB, it’s easy to overthink things. So let me simplify this a bit for you:
In his last two seasons (2013 and 2014), Yu Darvish posted strikeout rates of 32.9% and 30.1%. His SIERA across those two seasons was 2.76 and 2.87. To put that in perspective: Max Scherzer has a strikeout rate this year of 32.7%, and he has a SIERA this year of 2.87. With Darvish, we essentially get to roster Scherzer…for only $11,300.
Now, we can complicate things a bit. Darvish is still building up arm strength and has not yet gone over 91 pitches. The Athletics also are on the lower end of the strikeout spectrum (though this matters quite a bit less to us when we’re dealing with a truly elite strikeout arm). There is very little chance Darvish ends up below 20 DraftKings points today, but there is certainly a chance he doesn’t go too high over that. As such, I’m not saying Darvish is a “must play.”
Wait. Let me amend that.
I’m not saying he’s a “must play,” but I certainly think you want him in your lineup in cash games, where he will be highly owned, and where he will be the safest option on the day.
In tournaments, you could create an argument for staying away from Darvish, but this is similar to the “fading Kershaw” theory we have talked about before in this article. You don’t fade Kershaw in the hopes he has a bad game, or in the hopes you can roster some other, high-priced arm that can outscore him. Instead, the best way to fade Kershaw is by assuming he’ll get 25 to 30 (to 35) points at high ownership, and saying, “That’s fine – but I think I can get 20 to 25 from this cheaper pitcher, and I can largely keep pace with the field in that way while having much better bats than others have.” While I don’t expect Darvish to reach the 30 to 35 point range, we do have to assume high ownership and a solid output of 20 to 25 points (that is to say: we’re not fading him in the hopes he disappoints, as he’s unlikely to disappoint), so the best way to fade him is to be strategic about it: you either need to find a lower-priced arm you feel can keep pace with Darvish, or you need to find a higher-priced arm that has even more upside than Darvish.
A Smattering Of Other Arms

I would have a difficult time going to Adam Wainwright today, simply because his strikeout upside is not nearly as high as the guys he is priced amongst. His strikeout rate on the season is actually 19%, which is below the league average. Because he is such a wily old vet, and because the Mets do not pose a particularly big threat on offense, I want to like Wainwright more than I do. But he’s no more safe than Darvish, while Darvish carries more upside. And while he’s more safe than the next few guys, he also has less upside than them, making him less attractive in tourneys.
Jon Gray has been awesome this year, with a 26.3% strikeout rate and a 3.53 SIERA. The Orioles, for their part, have also been awesome, but their strikeout rate of 22.4% on the season does give us some cause for excitement. There is maybe a 10% chance Gray has the highest score on the day, and I imagine that’s right around the mark where his ownership will fall in most tourneys. As such, rostering him is sort of a wash (in a long-term, “if we played this slate a thousand times” sense), and I’m likelier to stay away myself given that Gray also has more downside than some of the other top arms, with how dangerous the Orioles are. But Gray certainly brings big upside to the table, and I would not blame you for looking here in tourneys.
You’re probably tired of hearing me talk about Matt Shoemaker, and I’ll be less enthusiastic about him moving forward if his price remains this high, but honestly, even at $10,400 he’s still a bit underpriced. Over his last 12 starts, Shoemaker has a 28.3% strikeout rate and a 3% walk rate. The Royals have been mediocre this year across the board, with a 20.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, and with a .306 wOBA and a tiny .129 ISO. There is definitely a chance Shoemaker outscores Darvish, or there is a chance a Darvish/Shoemaker pairing could win a tourney if you find the right combination of cheap bats. Of course, there is also a chance Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, and Kendrys Morales do enough damage against Shoemaker to lead to a disappointing day for him (Shoemaker is not nearly as dominant against lefties, and he allows a massive line drive rate and an above-average hard-hit rate to left-handed batters), but Shoemaker should have no problem providing a solid floor, and he has enormous upside as well.
Lance McCullers has an even higher strikeout rate (29.3%) across his 12 starts this year than Shoemaker has across his last 12. Of course, McCullers also has a 13.7% walk rate. He has only one start this year in which he has walked fewer than three batters, and largely because of this, he has gone seven full innings in only three of his 12 starts. I love McCullers’ upside, even against a Yankees team that doesn’t strike out a ton, but I probably like Shoemaker a bit more.
Masahiro Tanaka is a familiar name, and as such, he should draw a decent chunk of ownership. I’ll likely stay away myself, as Tanaka is really not a big strikeout guy – something that goes overlooked given the frequency with which he exchanges his time on the mound for quality fantasy outings. On the season, his strikeout rate of 19.9% is actually below the league average, and his 3.84 SIERA tells a very different story from his ERA. This is not an instance of “limiting hard contact” being what gets him through; Tanaka allows pretty substantially above-average hard contact rates to righties and lefties. Take away the name, and this would be a guy you would consider picking on before you would consider rostering him, as you would take the Astros against an average-strikeout, high-hard-hit guy.
Jason Hammel (humorously) is a slightly better play on paper than Tanaka. He has better strikeout stuff, he manages contact better, and while the White Sox don’t strike out as much as the Astros do, they’re also a far safer matchup. There isn’t huge upside here in tourneys, but Hammel should be able to reward you with a somewhat solid game if you decide to go here.
Since joining the starting rotation (13 starts), Danny Duffy has an awesome 27.5% strikeout rate and a 4.9% walk rate. He’s usable today; there’s maybe a 5% chance he posts an awesome game. But the Angels really don’t strike out against lefties – and unlike their numbers against right-handed pitching, they also hit the ball really well against southpaws (their .334 wOBA ranks seventh in baseball against lefties).
James Paxton strikes out righties at a solid 22.4% rate, and he’ll be facing a righty-heavy Pirates lineup that strikes out a surprising 24.1% of the time against left-handed pitching. Of course, the Pirates also rank eighth in the Majors in wOBA against southpaws, so this matchup does not come without some risk. But Paxton makes for an interesting option at $7600 in tourneys.
Sean Manaea has awesome strikeout upside he has still not quite translated to the Majors. The Rangers are a strong offense I never really like picking on, but I could see a random 20 point game from Manaea here. This is a deep-tourney play only, but it has a chance to pay off.
Tyler Duffey allows tons of hard contact to right-handed batters, but he does get to face the Braves. That’s about all there is for assessment here: “he does get to face the Braves.” You could get a dud from him, but you could also get 12 to 15 points from him, which could go a long way in tourneys at his price tag of only $5100.
Honestly, the best tourney play probably comes from the cheapest pitcher. Yesterday, people went overboard rostering a low-strikeout pitcher in Marcus Stroman against the Padres, while hardly anyone rostered an average-strikeout pitcher (Chris Tillman) against the Rockies. Why is this a worthwhile comparison? Because here are the Padres numbers against righties:
24.6% strikeout rate, .289 wOBA, .156 ISO.
And here are the Rockies’ road numbers:
23.4% strikeout rate, .293 wOBA, .145 ISO
Those are worst-in-the-league levels for strikeouts and wOBA, with low-end ISO numbers – for both teams. “Rockies on the road” this year has very nearly been “Padres versus righties,” yet this is a matchup far fewer people are looking to take advantage of.
Dylan Bundy threw 87 pitches in his last start, and he could easily hit 95 or more pitches today. He has solid strikeout stuff (especially to righties) and good control, and he does a decent job managing contact. I’m not saying Bundy should be priced at $8k or $9k, but I am saying he can easily get you 12 points for $4k, and he actually has the upside for 20 or more points. This is a risky play, but it’s actually a bit less risky than many of the guys priced above him.
In Case You’re Wondering…
In case you’re wondering my thoughts on these guys:
Gerrit Cole has flashed nothing but mediocrity this year, with a 20% strikeout rate and a 4.15 SIERA across 14 starts. I rarely want a part of picking on the Mariners’ offense with pitchers, and that goes double for today given how Cole has been pitching.
Mike Foltynewicz seems interesting, but the Twins are a much better offense at home, and they have been a much better offense as a whole lately.
Archie Bradley has gone over six innings just once this year, through 13 starts. His strikeout rate is up, and the Brewers strike out a ton, but Bradley’s swinging strike rate of 8% tells us that either his strikeouts are unsustainable, or he’s only getting these strikeouts because he’s out of the zone so often that hitters are taking pitches (in other words: in order for him to get all these called strikes, he’s putting himself in a position where he will be unable to pitch deep into games). I could see going here in tourneys, because I could see using just about any pitcher against the Brewers in tourneys, but it’s not a particularly enticing spot.
Our Options Narrowed Down For Us

There are not a ton of spots to love today for hitters, so our options are already fairly narrowed down for us. Here’s a deeper look at the spots that make the most sense for offense.
Astros Stack v Masahiro Tanaka
I know – Tanaka almost never has a disappointing game. But the numbers tell us he’ll have a blowup outing at some point, as an average strikeout rate, barely above-average ground ball stuff, and a high hard-hit rate is not going to lead to quality outings forever. This is, obviously, a tourney-only option, but it’s one that will attract very little in the way of ownership, and there is very real upside here. Absent a stack, I also like the idea of picking one or two Astros power hitters in tourneys at low ownership.
Angels Power v Danny Duffy
Because of how high Duffy’s strikeout rate is, we don’t want to get too excited here. But Albert Pujols and Mike Trout each have a chance to take Duffy out of the yard – and Pujols in particular will go overlooked by the masses. This is another “tourney only” play, and it’s probably not one I’ll be on myself, but it at least warrants mention on a day with so little to love at hitter.
Twins Lefties v Mike Foltynewicz
Folty is actually a ground ball pitcher to righties, so while you could use a guy like Brian Dozier or Miguel Sano, Folty largely takes away what we roster those fellas for. On the other hand, Folty plays right into the wheelhouse of Kennys Vargas and Max Kepler, as each guy has power from the left side of the plate, and Folty allows an enormous number of fly balls to left-handed batters. This is a hit-or-miss spot, as you’re essentially home run hunting, but it’s nevertheless a spot I like.
Mariners Lefties v Gerrit Cole
Similar to Astros versus Tanaka, this is a spot where others simply will not be looking. Cole is actually still doing a great job striking out lefties this year, but that’s about the only positive against lefties. When Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager make contact here, they’ll be in solid position for good things to happen – and I don’t even hate the idea of using Leonys Martin or Adam Lind in this spot, either. These are obviously “tourney only” plays as well, and I could even call them “deep tourney” plays, but they do come with some low-owned upside.
Brewers v Archie Bradley
Bradley is allowing a 40% hard contact rate to lefties and a 33% hard contact rate to righties. Obviously, this makes us wish the Brewers had more left-handed bats, but at least Scooter Gennett is intriguing here (same goes for Jonathan Villar, who may attract lower interest than normal tonight), and I don’t hate the idea of extending to a “top four” stack that includes Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy, as each of these guys can put the ball in play against Bradley as well.
Diamondbacks v Jimmy Nelson
The DBacks should have no problem handling Nelson tonight, though I really wish Jake Lamb were healthy, as Nelson really struggles against left-handed hitters. No standalone hitters really jump out here, and this could be just sort of a “blah” game all the way around (nothing too exciting from Nelson or from the DBacks), but a stack makes sense in tourneys, as you would then capture all of the upside at once if Nelson turns in a dud.
Rangers Righties v Sean Manaea
Manaea has a below-average strikeout rate, a below-average ground ball rate, and an above-average hard-hit rate to righties this year. Ryan Rua, Adrian Beltre, and Ian Desmond stand out as viable options in this spot, as all three guys have the ability to take Manaea out of the yard, while providing some solid “floor” as well. Because Manaea is so much better against lefties, and because there should be at least three prominent left-handed bats in the lineup for the Rangers, I don’t love a stack here, but picking one of these guys in tourneys is definitely a worthwhile play.
Braves Righties v Tyler Duffey
Duffey has low strikeouts to righties, and he has only average ground ball stuff with above-average line drives and huge hard-hit numbers. Because this is the Braves we’re talking about, that still doesn’t give us a ton to get excited about. But Adonis Garcia and Gordon Beckham could post a nice game here. Also, to reiterate: Duffey gets to face the Braves. He has average strikeout stuff to lefties, he keeps the ball on the ground against lefties, and hard contact is not a problem for him against lefties. You could do worse than rostering him against a weak-hitting team that may have six left-handed bats.
Cardinals v Logan Verrett
Verrett has below-average strikeout stuff to righties and lefties, and he only keeps the ball on the ground an average amount. This gives us tons to like with the Cardinals, who line up as a sneaky stack option on the day. Because of the contact this offense should be able to make, I don’t mind rostering two or three top-of-the-order Cardinals bats in cash games, and I think you can also grab some nice upside by filling out odds and ends in your tourney roster(s) with Cardinals bats.
Rockies Lefties v Dylan Bundy
While Bundy may be my favorite cheap tourney option at pitcher, he’s still a guy who costs only $4k, which means he’s still a guy some hitters can be expected to do well against. Bundy has only a 13.8% strikeout rate against lefties in his career, with average hard-hit stuff and really low ground balls. Expect Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, and David Dahl to put the ball in play, in the air, most of their at bats. This particularly plays to the strengths of CarGo and Dahl – especially in this ballpark. I expect Blackmon and CarGo to be highly-owned today…which probably makes Dahl my favorite play of the bunch – pretty convenient, as he’ll cost you only $2,800.
Cubs All Day v Anthony Ranaudo
Anthony Ranaudo was drafted with the 39th overall pick in the 2010 draft…to the Boston Red Sox, by Theo Epstein. Today, Epstein’s juggernaut offense gets to show why Ranaudo was a poor pick. Across 58 innings in his Major League career, Ranaudo has notched a 14.1% strikeout rate to lefties and a 7% strikeout rate to righties, while walking batters from both sides of the plate far too frequently. He has a difficult time keeping the ball on the ground, and he allows a large amount of hard contact. Play Cubs today.
Play Cubs today.
Play Cubs today.
Obviously, they’ll be popular in tourneys, so I would love to find a way to differentiate (either take two or three bats and hope for home runs from all of them – while hoping the other highly-owned bats do poorly, or maybe taking a unique stack others won’t have), but the Cubs have, by far, the best matchup on the day. I expect big things from them tonight.
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