Nate Silver's projects vs Actual Result

Alabama
Projected vote share ±3.8	36.7	62.8	vs Actual	38.4	60.7

Alaska
Projected vote share ±6.0	38.7	59.8	vs Actual	39.9	56.6

Arizona
Projected vote share ±3.3	46.2	53.1	vs Actual	43.4	55.0

Arkansas
Projected vote share ±3.8	38.6	59.8	vs Actual	37.0	60.4

California
Projected vote share ±2.9	58.1	40.7	vs Actual	59.2	38.5

Colorado
Projected vote share ±3.0	50.8	48.3	vs Actual	50.7	47.0

Connecticut
Projected vote share ±3.3	56.6	42.5	vs Actual	58.3	40.6

Delaware
Projected vote share ±5.5	59.6	39.8	vs Actual	58.6	40.0

District of Columbia
Projected vote share ±3.2	93.0	6.4		vs Actual	91.4	7.1

Florida
Projected vote share ±2.7	49.8	49.8	vs Actual	49.8	49.3

Georgia
Projected vote share ±2.7	45.5	54.2	vs Actual	45.4	53.4

Hawaii
Projected vote share ±3.9	66.5	32.7	vs Actual	70.6	27.8

Idaho
Projected vote share ±4.5	32.1	66.2	vs Actual	31.5	65.8

Illinois
Projected vote share ±3.0	59.8	39.6	vs Actual	57.3	41.1

Indiana
Projected vote share ±3.0	45.3	54.0	vs Actual	43.8	54.3

Iowa
Projected vote share ±3.2	51.1	47.9	vs Actual	52.1	46.5

Kansas
Projected vote share ±6.1	37.9	61.1	vs Actual	37.9	59.9

Kentucky
Projected vote share ±4.5	40.3	58.8	vs Actual	37.8	60.5

Louisiana
Projected vote share ±3.5	39.3	59.9	vs Actual	39.8	58.5

Maine
Projected vote share ±3.6	55.9	43.0	vs Actual	40.3	56.3

Maryland
Projected vote share ±3.0	60.9	38.1	vs Actual	61.2	37.0

Massachusetts
Projected vote share ±3.8	59.0	39.9	vs Actual	60.9	37.5

Michigan
Projected vote share ±2.7	53.0	45.9	vs Actual	53.5	45.5

Minnesota
Projected vote share ±2.9	53.7	45.1	vs Actual	52.8	45.1

Mississippi
Projected vote share ±5.2	39.4	60.2	vs Actual	43.6	55.4

Missouri
Projected vote share ±2.9	45.6	53.7	vs Actual	44.3	53.9

Montana
Projected vote share ±3.9	45.2	53.2	vs Actual	41.5	55.6

Nebraska
Projected vote share ±3.3	40.4	58.9	vs Actual	37.8	60.5

Nevada
Projected vote share ±3.0	51.8	47.3	vs Actual	52.3	45.7

New Hampshire
Projected vote share ±3.5	51.4	47.9	vs Actual	52.0	46.7

New Jersey
Projected vote share ±3.3	55.5	43.5	vs Actual	57.9	41.0

New Mexico
Projected vote share ±3.6	54.1	44.7	vs Actual	52.9	43.0

New York
Projected vote share ±2.9	62.4	37.0	vs Actual	62.7	35.9

North Carolina
Projected vote share ±2.6	48.9	50.6	vs Actual	48.4	50.6

North Dakota
Projected vote share ±3.9	42.0	56.7	vs Actual	38.9	58.7

Ohio
Projected vote share ±2.7	51.3	47.7 	vs Actual	50.1	48.2

Oklahoma
Projected vote share ±3.8	33.8	65.9	vs Actual	33.2	66.8

Oregon
Projected vote share ±3.7	53.6	44.1	vs Actual	53.4	44.0

Pennsylvania
Projected vote share ±2.6	52.5	46.6	vs Actual	51.9	46.8

Rhode Island
Projected vote share ±4.3	61.8	36.4	vs Actual	63.1	35.2

South Carolina
Projected vote share ±4.5	43.2	56.1	vs Actual	43.7	55.0

South Dakota
Projected vote share ±4.2	42.5	56.2	vs Actual	39.9	57.9

Tennessee
Projected vote share ±3.9	41.4	57.8	vs Actual	39.0	59.5

Texas
Projected vote share ±3.1	41.2	58.2	vs Actual	41.4	57.2

Utah
Projected vote share ±4.1	27.8	70.6	vs Actual	24.9	72.7

Vermont
Projected vote share ±4.8	66.2	32.7	vs Actual	67.1	31.2

Virginia
Projected vote share ±2.5	50.7	48.7	vs Actual	50.8	47.8

Washington
Projected vote share ±3.5	56.2	42.6	vs Actual	55.2	42.8

West Virginia
Projected vote share ±4.8	41.3	57.5	vs Actual	35.5	62.3

Wisconsin
Projected vote share ±2.9	52.4	46.9	vs Actual	52.8	46.1