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  1. WDPN31 PGTW 220300
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX)
  4. WARNING NR 01//
  5. RMKS//
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
  8. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
  9. 770 NM EAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
  10. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
  11. (MSI) SHOWS THE MAIN CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST,
  12. PARTIALLY EXPOSING A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
  13. INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
  14. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
  15. OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
  16. INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL
  17. WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE
  18. CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO
  19. MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
  20. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
  21. A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN AND SETS THE
  22. FORECAST PHILOSOPHY ON THIS SYSTEM.
  23. B. TD 26W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH AND BEGIN ROUNDING THE
  24. WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING STR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS,
  25. IT WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE
  26. MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL OFFSET
  27. INCREASING VWS AND SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM AT TD INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE
  28. FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 12, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
  29. TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT ENTERS THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE, BECOMING A
  30. COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 48. THERE IS, HOWEVER, A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
  31. THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO ETT DUE TO HIGH VWS. THE
  32. AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
  33. BROAD AND WEAK LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
  34. FORECAST INTENSITY, THERE IS AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
  35. JTWC FORECAST.//
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