events_and_chuusen_pool

VRMasterToday at 1:36 PM
Looking over a fan TL it's vaguer than I was led to believe. It certainly is keeping Mari's backstory where she left for a year and then came back. But even in a scenario where it's wholly Chika's idea, Muse still wouldn't be the inspiration for the group when they're contemporaries.

VRMasterToday at 2:59 PM
oh, supplemental data point: checked in with my friend who, like me, also applied on the last day
he also dekimasen'd with an application number of 912

starlightk7Today at 3:01 PM
the conspiracy theory grows :eyes:

VRMasterToday at 3:01 PM
the application numbers are obviously order received; I'm just not sold on it secretly being FCFS, because...why bother with the disguise of a lottery?
just actually make it FCFS

starlightk7Today at 3:02 PM
so that people dont get pissed off when you announced it while they were sleeping/at work / whatever

VRMasterToday at 3:03 PM
actually pissed if the reason I'm SOL is because I took their claims of doesn't matter when you apply seriously and actually thought through if I could afford it

starlightk7Today at 3:03 PM
if its to gaijin, its both hard to prove it wasnt random and hard to sue if you were pissed, so :AiAiShrug:
(just throwing out conspiracy logic)

VRMasterToday at 3:04 PM
it's not like you can sue anyway, just don't see the point in a charade when they clearly know how to do a random selection

starlightk7Today at 3:04 PM
it seems like they do everything by hand shoddily. look at how the form was evolving in peoples screenshots, plus how the emails go out kinda sequentially. i wouldnt be surprised if they dont really have a lottery system
its very amatuer and a lottery system actually costs money to develop or buy (which they obviously didnt buy, cause look at their site)
if you had to be lazy when doing it manually, the easiest way would be sequential :Suhaha~2:

VRMasterToday at 3:07 PM
I'd think the easiest way to do a cheap and dirty lottery would be to just use an RNG, set the possible outcomes to any number between 1-X and keep going until you're out of seats.
though the only way to disprove it being FCFS is someone with a low application number with a dekimasen or someone with a high number getting selected

starlightk7Today at 3:08 PM
yep
:blobpopcorn:
i dont disagree with your above statement, but its probably given to a low paid intern who isnt going to bother going the extra mile

MARUピョン💜✨Today at 3:09 PM
Ask the salt room lol
I also have a friend who applied late and dekimasen’d
Idk how late tho

starlightk7Today at 3:10 PM
imo, always just apply right away. you can always self dekimasen by not paying
RNGs also have edge case bias usually
so if youre among the last to apply, your chances are often lower. you generally are best off in the middle, which is most likely to be gotten in the heat of the moment during the rush

VRMasterToday at 3:11 PM
at the time I thought it was like the others where you need payment data up front, so I was trying to be financially responsible and make sure I could afford the bloated price
don't shame me for that

starlightk7Today at 3:11 PM
oh im not shaming you
sorry if you read it that way
there are a lot of bias in PRNG systems that can screw you even if the lottery runner doesnt intend to
for example, if names are alpha sorted before being put into the RNG, your actual name could give you a higher or lower rate on many algorithms

VRMasterToday at 3:13 PM
oh yeah; just another "RNG isn't actually random" example
it's a reasonable facsimile, but computers can't generate a number without an input, so...yeah

Kannazuki888Today at 7:33 PM
Rng generators are everywhere in Japan. The hand crank ones. I wouldn’t be surprised if they used that because there were only a few thousand people

starlightk7Today at 7:35 PM
disprove the conspiracy theory - find someone with reception number <587 that lost :Suhaha~2:

Erm🔜ANYC Lantis MatsuriToday at 7:38 PM
There’s no way I was the 39th person to apply though
You being the 16th I believe though :joy:

starlightk7Today at 7:53 PM
pfffft dont rain on my conspiracy theory :AnchanPout:
(when did you apply anyways)

Erm🔜ANYC Lantis MatsuriToday at 8:00 PM
10/20 at like 10:30pm is my confirm email
From what I saw on Twitter it opened up like half an hour before I applied

MARUピョン💜✨Today at 8:03 PM
Could maybe be right then you never know
Rip dekimasen niji
Sorry star

starlightk7Today at 8:13 PM
ill enter the open round
and if that doesnt get it ill just scalp d1
oh btw i still owe you money >.< ill send that over shortly

Kannazuki888Today at 8:16 PM
If you go, cheer Akarin on for me

MARUピョン💜✨Today at 8:17 PM
Want me to try open round too?

starlightk7Today at 8:19 PM
o right i can enter both accounts
thanks for reminder :Suhaha~2:

MARUピョン💜✨Today at 8:20 PM
Lolol