Current model for 2020 presidential election.

When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote.

Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

False: Democrats hold the house now.

Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

True.

Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

True.

Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

True.

Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

False. Coronavirus fears are tanking the market and this is expected to continue into the election.

Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

True

Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

True

Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

False His presidency has been nothing but social unrest.

Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

False. Impeached. Scandalized from day one.

Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

False. Trade wars with china. Tanking of Iranian nuclear deal. Syria.

Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

False

Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

True

Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

??? If Bernie Sanders this becomes false.

According to this model which has accurately predicted the president 7 times out of the last 8 Trump cannot win.

As of now we have 6 false.

a 7th would be overkill.