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- English transcript (by me, native German but not native English, so no gurantee for error-freeness, I surely have some typos or wrong words^^).
- I tried to focus on the content and didn't translate word for word, e.g. I put "welcome" instead of the "let me wholeheartly welcome you",
- hope that makes it a little easier to read.
- start at 3:28 in the video, after checking watch (Germans, have to love them xD)
- S. Glasmacher:
- Yeah, I think we start, it's ten o'clock. Welcome to the first press briefing concerning the new Corona virus.
- We will offer this every working day [Mo-Fr] henceforth, meaning unless you hear differently, it will happen daily.
- I'd also like to welcome the watchers and listeners on twitter, we are live-streaming this,
- and the viewers on Phoenix [a German news channel],
- that, as far as we know, are also live-streaming this.
- Some points regarding the structure:
- We have here Prof. Wieler, president of the Robert Koch institute, and Prof. Schaade, vice president of the Robert Koch institute.
- Mr. Wieler will open with a short statement, afterwards you will be free to ask questions; at the end we might
- allow individual statements, and of course Mr. Schaade will also answer then.
- Mr. Wieler, please.
- Prof. Wieler:
- Thanks Ms Glasmacher. Dear everyone from the press and the ones watching the live-stream, welcome.
- First, I'll quickly summarize what happened in the last weeks to show you that this is a very dynamic incident
- and that we are dealing with a virus that we only know for a short time and where we get new informations about almost daily.
- This is why it is so important to give this assessment of the situation every day.
- On December 8th, in Wuhan, a big city in China in the province of Hubei, we saw the first cases of people
- suffering from pneumonia, where it wasn't clear what exactly they got.
- On December 31st, cases were officially reported to the WHO.
- On January 1st, a market, an animal market, was closed down in Wuhan.
- Already on January 7th, the virus DNA was decoded and the information shared with the world,
- allowing the development of a test for the virus.
- This was a very, very important step and happened very fast.
- On January 13th, we had the first case outside of China, since then these cases are increasing.
- In Germany, we recorded the first case on January 27th, in Bavaria.
- To give you a short idea about how intensively the Robert Koch institute is working on these cases:
- On January 6th, we established a "situation workgroup" ["Lage AG" in German],
- meaning that colleagues intensively worked on that, gathering information,
- sharing information with international organisations, making risk assessments.
- On January 14th, we first introduced a coordinating position [as in "someone responsible for that"],
- meaning an in house scaling and putting more people on this topic,
- more intensely researching the topic, exchanging informations, doing daily risk assessments.
- From the day of the first German case, 01/27, i.e. about 4 weeks ago, we activated our situation
- room/assessment center ["Lagezentrum" in German],
- meaning that since when workers are working on it in two shifts, seven days a week from 8am to 9pm,
- continuously discussing, developing recommendations,
- are in contact with doctors, with epidemic ministers of the federal states ["Länder' in German],
- updating the website that we also actualize daily.
- You are well aware what happened in Bayern, at the first German case:
- All in all we have 14 people who are, save one, all discharged already; the last one is not discharged yet
- as they are still releasing viruses.
- Then we had two citizens of Wuhan, they too are healthy and discharged.
- Each day we re-assess the risk, we observe what happens in other countries, cases arising, how things are developing.
- Until the evening of two days ago, that was what was going on in Germany,
- since that evening we have further cases in NRW and Baden-Würtemberg.
- In B-W, we have a 25 year old male that traveled to Milan; related to this journey and in his proximity there were further cases.
- In NRW, we as of now have 6 cases, originating from a male between 40 and 50 who showed symptoms and is
- currently being treated at a hospital in Dusseldorf.
- What happens if you have such cases?
- The local health governments start an intensive "contact tracing", as we call it,
- meaning that of course these persons get treated if sick, they are obviously quarantined,
- either at home or in hospitals. But one of the most important things is to find and inform contact persons
- to put them under quarantine.
- Meaning this is the task we are working on, we are calling that "containment" strategy, meaning we will try
- to stop the spread of this infection as much as possible.
- This is the goal of our current actions.
- This incident is very dynamic, world-wide we have 46 countries affected so far. Almost every day in the last few weeks,
- another new country was added; a very dynamic incident
- that we need to monitor and include into our risk assessment.
- All of us, in all countries, take every possible effort to reduce the spread of this virus as much as possible,
- resp. slowing down the spread as much as possible.
- Why is that so important?
- Because this virus is that new, there is not yet a treatment and no vaccine, it is important to learn more every day;
- how to better treat patients, how the virus is transmitted and
- how we can contribute to slowing down the spread and contain the virus as far as possible. We need to gain time,
- and we do everything we can for that.
- Of course we cannot exclude the possiblity of the virus spreading further.
- This was my statement so far, I am open for questions.
- reporter questions (starting at 10:45min into the video)
- reporter:
- Volker Weine (?) from BILD. How many people are currently isolated in Germany, that's the first question.
- The second question: How many people are still being searched for that were at this carneval party?
- And thirdly: Are we at risk of soon facing Italien conditions, e.g. closed down cities?
- Prof. Schaade:
- Isolated are the sick ones, they are getting isolated, i.e. isolating sick persons [yep, that's how he said it, sounds better than it looks in German^^].
- On top of that, contact persons are quarantined, i.e. isolating people at risk of being infected in technical terms.
- I can't give you that number, currently only the local health officials know these numbers.
- But fully isolated are all the people that have so far been identified as infected.
- reporter: [ not understandable ]
- Prof. Schaade:
- I can't say, surely a lot, but I don't have exact numbers for you.
- That is an information that the local health officials have and that develops very dynamically;
- persons are put in quarantine until cleared, some are released again, new ones join, i.e. it changes daily.
- Prof. Wieler [ who wanted to say something for a minute or two already^^]:
- Just to give a magnitute: In Bavaria, where 14 were found to be infected, 240 people were quarantined at home.
- This is a fixed number, as this event is closed; the current events in NRW and BW are ongoing.
- You were asking about expecting Italien conditions.
- The measures in Bavaria were very successful, we practice these measurements for a lot of years already in Germany.
- We assume that they will also be successful in the other areas and we don't see a reason to assume that
- whole cities will be closed down by civil guards, as you mean to ask when talking about Italian conditions.
- There is no reason to expect that.
- reporter: [ again not understandable, dude, they gave you a mic, please use it! ]
- Prof Wieler:
- Yes, the patient indeed was at a carneval party. This party happend in the village he is from as far as I know; it was a party with about 300-400 people.
- Of course these persons will all be questioned and, if I am correctly informed, they are currently all quarantined at home.
- other reporter:
- Till ???, BILD, I have one question. Things are a little chaotic when talking to people.
- Some are really scared, others say that is just a normal flu, don't panic.
- Can you please cleary explain, because obviously it is not only the people panicing but the extreme measurements in China,
- I've been in Japan for two weeks where it also was really extreme, the people are really scared, the governments are worrying.
- Could you explain please: why? Why so much worry, why these hard measurements?
- Prof Wieler:
- If you keep track of the numbers, that are all very transparantly available on websites -
- and I am talking about reliable sources: WHO, ICDC (?), Robert Koch institute, federal office of health -
- then you can see that on one hand, the virus is easily transmitted. That means the speed this virus is spreading at is high.
- This is one aspect. This means it is spreading easily, so we must try everything to contain it.
- The second aspect is the severity of the diseasae. How many of the infected are getting sick, and how sick are they getting?
- When looking at the numbers, you have to see that over 80% of the infected only show mild symptoms.
- This is good news.
- But there are about 15% - these are the current numbers that constantly change - i.e. 15 of 100 get heavy symptoms.
- That is a lot.
- Based on our current numbers, we have to assume that about 1-2% of the infected die from this disease.
- That means that this is a severe type of disease and of course this is known and thus it makes a lot of sense to use all means available
- to stop the spread of this disease.
- S. Glassmacher: [ inaudible ]
- Prof Wieler:
- Another aspect, what Ms. Glassmacher said: There is no vaccine for this virus.
- Making a realisitic assumption we will not get a vaccine this year, it is simply not possible to develop and test a vaccine that fast.
- It is almost certain that it will be developed this year, but it needs to be tested for effectiveness and side effects;
- i.e. there are multiple clinical steps before such a vaccine can be admitted.
- This is the second reason, the next one is that we currently have no medical treatment.
- There are no admitted drugs of which we know that they help; there are first clues, that is already good news,
- in China a lot of clinical studies are being conducted; based on our knowledge very, very efficiently.
- Therefore, we expect hints about which drugs work against this disease very soon.
- That is also one of the reasons why we need to get more time.
- Each day and each week we can stall the spread, the chance of finding a treatmenet increases.
- other reporter:
- Katrin ???, süddeutsche Zeitung. My first question is, again, about the chance of transmission.
- The are speculations that the virus can also transmit from asymptomic people or people that don't show symptoms yet.
- Did something change there or are there new findings here? That's the first question.
- The second question is regarding the tests. How high is the availability of tests in general?
- By now there are also commercial tests, are they necessary to assure a test coverage, also internationally?
- Furthermore there are also speculations that the virus might only appear seasonal, as is the case with the flu.
- S. Glassmacher [ interupting ]:
- Please only three questions.
- reporter:
- Ok, well, that were three. :)
- Prof. Wieler:
- First question: Yes, indeed the virus is released from an early stage on, meaning that people with low symptoms can already infect others.
- That is a finding we only have for a few weeks. Quick explanation: This virus, its DNA, is very similar to SARS that caused an epidemic around 17 years ago.
- About SARS it was known that it did not transmit in these early stages. Therefore, at first people assumed properties similar to SARS in this regard.
- That is completely normal: You have a previously non-existing virus, then you compare it to a similar virus.
- That is a big difference, so yes, the virus is already transmitted earlier.
- This also explains the easy and fast transmission.
- Your second question was about the test. This test is a so-called [medical term I don't know, sorry...].
- That is a procedure that is available in all diagnostic labs, meaning that the technology needed is available in all labs.
- This procedure is not very demanding in such a lab, meaning that there is no reason to think that these tests are running out in any way
- or that there are not enough available.
- What we did - as I said we have a daily assessment of the situation - we reduced the requirements to be tested further and further to have
- more information available how much the virus has spread. Among other things, we have four surveilance systems with which we intensively monitor
- the flu each year. It is really difficult to do that, but very important to always properly assess the flu.
- A lot of these surveilance tools give us impressions about how much virus is out there, which virus it is and how strongly people are infected.
- As the disease [Corona] is also a pneumonia, similar to influence or SARS, we can use these monitoring system for both [the flu and Corona].
- We further have a "sentinal study", where 600-700 doctors send in tests which we screen for Corona and we lowered the limit for
- when a doctor tests a patient, allowing us to get more information. Meaning that also concerns billing questions and such things that need
- to be taken care of with health insurances; so these are also technical questions we are solving.
- The third question I did, indeed, forget.
- [ inaudible ]
- Prof. Wieler:
- Ah, yes, the saisonality. That is a hypothesis that we are also keeping an eye on, but we can only falsify or verify it once summer is here.
- There are virologists and epidemiologist who expect the virus to be saisonal and to return next year, but we simply don't know that yet.
- That is a process that we continuously learn; we currently can't exclude the possiblity.
- other reporter:
- Nina Lahmers (?), RTL and N-TV.
- There was a recent report by dpa [German press agency] that a woman in Osaka was infected, discharged and tested positive a second time.
- Can you comment on that if you already have that information?
- And a second question about the people and the protection of the people:
- What can a single person do? We already heard a lot about masks not being as useful, so we should not all get gloves and masks,
- but for the people that, in the case that things get worse, need to protect the people, i.e. paramedics or police, protection
- is essential. Now the police union is critizing that the available protective masks are expired.
- Are you, as Robert Koch institute, able to give recommondations, e.g. to get further stocks in, and do you act on that?
- Prof. W.:
- About the first question I can indeed not say anything, I am not aware of this case so I can't comment on it.
- The second point is very important and it is good that you are asking.
- We are in a dynamic situation, meaning the virus might further spread in Germany.
- We expect both doctors and all people to give attention to this topic, that's also why this event is so important.
- What can each citizen do, what can the people really do to help stopping the spread of the virus?
- And there are a few trivial things, that have been, are still and will always be important.
- One of them is cough-etiquette: Don't cough into your hand, cough into the crook of your arm.
- As trivial as this sounds, as important it is. It has two effects.
- First: We know that this virus is transmittable through droplets, i.e. if someone sneezes/coughs there is a chance of someone
- in close proximity getting infected; you can prevent this by sneezing into the crook of your arm.
- The second aspect is to please not sneeze into your hand. Why's that? Naturally the virus can survive on the hand for a certain time.,
- meaning that if you sneeze into your hand and then shake hands with someone, you can transmit the virus.
- It is indeed an efficient way if you wash your hands regularly; if you can't there are also gels, desinfecting gels.
- These are not almost necessary, but if you are not able to wash your hands, then such a gel can be useful.
- By doing that, you can make sure that, if you yourself are infected, you don't transmit the virus.
- Next point is if you are sick, we really ask you to stay at home. Do not go to big events, do not use public transportation,
- stay at home, call a doctor and tell them that you have a certain disease, and then you have to come to an agreement with
- the doctor if you should go to them or they come to your place or however. That is something where you, where we all,
- completely independent of our job, can contribute.
- The second aspect you mentioned about the masks: If you yourself are sick and you a wearing such a mask, the effect is similar.
- If you chough or sneeze, the droplets can't be transmitted as far; that is clear. But for everyday life,
- there is no evidence that this helps in any way. What we also expect is that the doctors, on the other hand, also think;
- on one hand we expect patients who show symtoms of the flu to not simply go to the doctor and infect others in the process, but on the other
- hand we also expect doctors to think about how to organize their daily routine; e.g. invite people with flu-like symptoms only at certain times.
- There are thus a lot of actions; I think if everyone knows how the virus is transmitted and which symptoms you have, then a lot of people
- in our society, then we all can help slow down the spread. That is an important point, all of us have something we can do
- by simply using common sense; that is very important, we aren't defenceless in front of that.
- And that we release recommondations is clear; you can find them on our website and there are concrete efforts on the European level
- to get more of these masks.
- reporter:
- Can I add another question?
- S. Glassmacher:
- Quickly please.
- reporter:
- Yes, I'll make it quick.
- If that case in Osaka, that you can get infected twice, if that seems to be the case with this new virus,
- what would that mean? for the spread?
- Prof W.:
- As I said: We haven't seen that case up to now; I can't/I don't want to make a statement on that because we...
- Based on everything we know so far, you are infected and by that gain immunity against it.
- What is clear, of course, is that you release the virus for a certain time after [ the symptoms];
- that is always the question on when to be released from the hospital, and it is possible that the same virus
- was still present; so the speculation of being infected a second time after passing the first one is,
- based on everything we know so far, not plausible.
- new reporter:
- ? Wildermut for the WDR, I also have three questions.
- The first is about family doctors. Do you give them concrete advice on what to do on your website?
- The second one: You recommend general vaccinations (whooping cough etc.).
- Is it recommended to get vaccinated now, as other diseases can lower your defenses [ against Corona ]?
- And the third question: Comparing this virus to the flu, where do you get?
- Prof W.:
- Yeah, good questions. These questions were all good, they were very good.
- About family doctors: We have general advice for family doctors on our website, yes.
- But we don't have concrete advice on how to handle special cases, as each medical practice is differently
- structured, you can't solve every single case centralized.
- This will never be the case, as it would be wrong instructions for some practices.
- There are generic advices and there is advice on how to deal with patients, with tests, with diagnosing;
- such things you can find with us.
- Family doctors also always have the possiblity to contact local health officials and we do expect that.
- I'll repeat myself: Doctors are highly educated people and can also deduce actions themselves,
- that's what they are trained for.
- The question about vaccines is a very good one. I am mad that I didn't mention it myself at the beginning.
- So, look: Why does the vaccination department at the Robert Koch institute such sound recommondations?
- Because they have the expertise, using statistical models, using estimated values and efficiency studies
- to recomment certain vaccines. And we recomment these vaccines with a strong belief
- that through them we can lower the amount of sickness in the population and also protect individual people.
- That means I can only ask all people, no matter if we are in this situation now, including the flu season,
- I can only ask all people to follow these recommondations - there is an app for that -
- and get vaccinated; the German health insurance system covers all costs.
- In this concrete case we have now, it's clear, we already know and it will stay like that, that there are
- certain high risk groups that have a high risk to get really sick from this virus infection.
- These are the classical high risk groups: Elderly and very old people, because their immune system isn't
- working as well anymore as is the case with middle aged and young people and because old people often have
- pre-existing illnesses that overall lower their potential to deal with such an infection.
- And then there are risk groups like immune-transplanted [? never heard of that, so not sure if right term]
- or people with other pre-existing conditions. And these people we always ask to get vaccinated
- against ? and whooping cough, and of course the flu. Each year I'm angry, well we all sitting here are,
- and everyone thinking about it is massively annoyed about the amount of people in our population that
- we ask to get vaccinated and they don't. These are all vaccinations hat protect the lung,
- we are talking about a pneumonia and everyone who already had one - hope it's not many, I myself had one once -
- pneumonia are hard diseases that have the potential to end in death.
- Everyone who has the chance to protect themselves by getting vaccinated should please do so.
- Why? Just assume you have a double infection; just assume you have a virus infection and
- you get a pneumonia on top; of course the course of the illness is more grave then.
- That's why vaccinations are important and the right way and right now, the vaccinations
- that protect you from infections of the lung are of special importance.
- The third point was the flu. I assume that you want to know about the graveness [ possibly wrong English term, sorry... ]
- of the disease. We have hundreds of people dying from flu in Germany each year, sometimes tens of thousands.
- That's why we warn and ask each year to get vaccinated. We have here rates, statistical numbers, lethality rates of
- 0.1-0.2%. The rates we saw so far are higher, almost 10x as high, 5-10x so high for Corona.
- That are the numbers we have so far, but they change continuously because we don't have enough numbers yet.
- For example, the rates are higher in China than outside of China; the reason might be that in China...
- First, understand that we can never detect everyone infected. Many people have few or no symptoms at all, meaning that
- the real denominator [ to compute the rate ] is bigger than what we see. Meaning in China, you will surely see more
- grave cases and thus more deaths; outside of China we are at rates of around 1%, they might also be lower.
- These are the current numbers. What is clear is that the rates of deaths is higher than with the flu.
- How much higher we will see once this epidemic is over.
- next reporter:
- ? for the DPA, also three questions. First about the quarantine regulations we currently have,
- both domestic and at clinics. If we get a lot more cases, can the clinics even keep up with the isolation;
- concerning beds, nurses and doctors?
- Second question: Is it known how well the virus can survive on surfaces; e.g. door knobs, fruits or
- even toys imported from China. How long, how durable and how infectious?
- And would it be recommended to touch door knobs with gloves or your sleeve?
- And you mentioned when you have symptoms don't go to events or use public transport. How about the work place?
- So coughs and sneezing in our dutiful workforce?
- Prof:
- About the beds: It's a question about quantity, that much is clear.
- We don't know how it will spread; we will do these procedures as stringent as possible.
- As long as we can we will do it, and of course we hope that we can handle it;
- but we don't know how it will develop. It is checked daily and we will see how well we can contain
- the virus.
- Well, let's assume hospital beds. First of all, hospitals are currently freeing up beds.
- There are a lot of operations that can be moved, thus gaining beds.
- There are still options to scale. Next point would be, in case you need a lot of beds,
- more than are available, one would let patients out of isolation and send them home sooner than is done now,
- to be able to refill the beds earlier. There are different levels you can use.
- About the question of surfaces: The important point is to wash your hands.
- In a hospital, in a setup where you are dealing with patients, where you actually have confirmed cases
- you would of course disinfect surfaces; but in other cases you would not.
- reporter:
- Is there something known about the durability?
- Prof:
- Well, I have forgotten that, but he knows.
- Prof Schaade:
- Corona virus can survive and infect at room temperature for an average of 4 days; sometimes it can be a few more days.
- But that is showing things under lab conditions. For the transfer between people, the droplet infection
- is the important part. If surfaces are contaminated, hand washing is the right way to battle that,
- there is no reason to disinfect e.g. handrails in public buildings.
- Just as Mr. W. said: Close to patients, in a hospital or if a patient is isolated at home,
- this is where disinfection is useful; but not in public.
- reporter:
- So you can purchase fruits from northern Italy without concern?
- Prof Schaade:
- Yes.
- S. Glassmacher:
- Maybe to add: The "Bundesinstitut für Risikobewertung" [i.e. "not us" xD ] is in charge of
- food; they already gave a statement on that topic.
- [ to Prof W. ] About the workers...
- Prof W.:
- Ah, yes, of course that is logical, just think about it. Of course that is also true for employees.
- I said it is true for people, and employees are people. One way would be home office in case the epidemic
- spreads further, even if you are not [ yet ] sick; just to be less mobile overall.
- There are a lot of ways and there are plans, pandemic plans that companies have, there are plans on
- the federal level, at hospitals; there are a lot of these things prepared telling you what to do
- what you can do. Yes, this is all part of it, of course.
- next reporter:
- Georg Ling (?) of SWR. I would like to ask: You are still assuming that infection chains can
- be determined while trying to contain it. Aren't we already way past that in your opinion?
- Even the minister of health said we can't trace everything anymore.
- What state are we in there, isn't that containment strategy void already because things are out of control?
- And the second question: Spahn and Seehofer communicated the instalalation of a crisis center at noon.
- What more can they do that you can't? You said you are working in two shifts etc.
- Is that just to calm down the public or will you coordinate it?
- Thanks.
- Prof W.:
- First: No, clearly no, it is not yet out of control.
- I want to emphazise it again: We had one case in Bavaria.
- We supported, but the colleagues in Bavaria where the ones who successfully
- stopped the spread, they put 240, or I think 241, citizens into domestic quarantine;
- and these people cooperated, this case is over, so that works.
- We had two new cases only two days ago and the health departments are currently
- conducting interviews, tracing the contact; so if it is out of control or not we
- can currently not know, we assume it is under control.
- You know it is just like in a crime thriller: Suddenly there are new leads,
- new contact persons; you record them and put them under domestic quarantine.
- So no, in the contrary: We will continue that strategy.
- It is of course possible that we reach the point - when there are new cases in Germany,
- which is possible - that at some point we no longer have control.
- But still, and that is important to understand, still we will continue like that -
- the local authorities (partly with our assistance partly without) - because we can
- still slow down the spread of the virus this way.
- Even if we can no longer trace every case; by still finding people that are potential
- infection sources and putting them on domestic quarantine, we can still keep these sources in check.
- That is very important to understand. On one hand is the containment strategy and then suddenly
- you pull a lever and go to the next level. No! The containment will continue,
- no matter how many cases there are.
- Of course it is clear that at some point, the capacity is reached and not everyone can be traced
- anymore, but you will still find and eliminate sources of infection.
- This is very, very important because it reduces the spread.
- About the second question: He [ pats Prof S. ] is a better, crisis experienced man
- than I am, so Mr. Schaade will answer that one. I am really new in this office.
- Prof S.:
- We, as the Robert Koch institute, are a technical institute in the department of health.
- We forward information from WHO and EU to the federal states in Germany and also the other way round,
- e.g. information about patients shared between states, so a technical coordination
- in the health sector. On top of that we are in need of coordination on the national and political level.
- This will be the task of the crisis center the minister mentioned.
- next reporter:
- Buchsteiner from RND. Could you, Prof. Wieler, describe what will change in the next phase,
- that isn't clear to me yet. Measures that concern the public live, e.g. "Infektionsschutzgesetz".
- And the second question: What happens with the people who made a test but don't have the results yet?
- What do you recomment in these cases, that are the rules?
- Prof W.:
- Well, first of we take the measures we discussed. It is important that we inform,
- meaning inform people how they should act. That includes for example the instalation of hotlines
- for people to ask how to act, both for infected and contact persons.
- We currently have two levels of contact persons that are treated differently.
- First degree contact persons, i.e. intensive contact, should stay in domestic quarantine.
- Others are contact persons that were in a risk area, e.g. in northern Italy.
- These persons we tell to monitor themselves, take your temperature etc.
- but you can partake in normal life; maybe don't go to mass events, keep an eye on yourself.
- If these people get sick they should go into domestic isolation.
- What are further measurements?
- We would like to reduce the overall mobility.
- So what we were talking about, people rather staying at home, cancelling of big events,
- of travels, companies switching to home office where possible;
- so that we overall reduce mobility to make sure the virus doesn't spread further.
- You can close down certain mass accommodation facilities.
- So it is about limiting mobility and making sure to reduce contact between people.
- You can for example tell people, especially older people that are in the classical high risk groups:
- Only go shopping once a week, stay at home.
- All that are concrete measures to suggest to people;
- all these ae in place and would be given to people seeking information; reduce public life.
- [ inaudible question/comment ]
- Prof W.:
- Yes. Yes, yes.
- We test both well-grounded suspected cases, meaning you have reason...
- There are reasons on our website why someone should be tested.
- During that time, if the person is sick...
- The test result, I would say, one day; at most it should take one day until
- results are in. During that time, people should stay at home whenever possible of course
- and not infect others.
- next reporter:
- Holger (?) ???, Pro7/Sat1, I have three questions.
- First question: Why are males affected more than females?
- How about pets, can pets get infected?
- And my third question: What would be the worst that could happen right now?
- Prof W.:
- Well, no one knows why males are affected more than females; could also be
- due to certain factors like in work places... we simply don't know, I can't tell.
- There is no sign of pets getting infected, no signs at all so far.
- And the worst case scenario is an epidemic throughout Germany and lots of people getting sick.
- If you think back to the flu epidemic 2017/2018, where 10 million people went to the doctor,
- that was a really severe case pushing the German health system to its limits.
- That is a really bad perception, to have something similar happening again.
- next person:
- Virologist from the US have the theory that there are antibodies empowering the infection
- with this Corona virus and that this would make the development of a vaccine harder.
- Did you hear about that and does your team have an opinion on that?
- Prof W.:
- No. I don't know/haven't heard about that and can therefore not comment on it.
- next:
- I have another question about the virus. Corona virus doesn't change in the same way
- influenca does. Still you mentioned before that in some regions more people are dying,
- in others less. Are there signs from that data, e.g. Iran compared to China,
- that different virus strains might be forming?
- Prof W.:
- I want to emphazise, especially for you, as we had this discussion before:
- I did not claim that in some regions, more people are dying as in others but I
- said that we do not know the denominator.
- We are talking about numbers that change almost daily, that's one point,
- that is really important.
- The second point is that Corona viruses do change far less than influenca ones.
- We have around 100 genomes in public data bases and the changes are only marginal;
- there are small mutations, but there are no mutations pointing towards a different
- biology so far.
- next:
- Doerthe ?, RBB. Many countries cancelled big events, cancelled international events
- due to fear of spread. You are talking about containment and say this is the most
- efficient protection. Wouldn't it be, under these conditions, wise to cancel big events,
- like e.g. the ETB next week, as long as we don't exactly know this virus?
- Prof W.:
- Well, that are decisions that can be made and that we have to talk about.
- These are decisions that the one holding such an event needs to make.
- I know that, also in Germany, multiple events were cancelled.
- One reason for that is that simply not enough people would even attend.
- It is of course sensible, but it is something that needs to be decided anew
- each day. You know, if for example you still have just a few cases,
- then you can thinking about doing such an event. But the more cases there are,
- internationally, where people would arrive from high risk areas,
- then of course the chance that such events will be cancelled rises.
- next:
- You were talking about vaccines and pre-conditions, especially
- in the older population.
- There is a gigantic range of pre-conditions.
- Should the ones concerning the lung, e.g. astma or COPT,
- get vaccinated even more than diabetics or other cronically ill
- or do you not differentiate there?
- Prof W.:
- No. There are recommondations and they apply.
- They apply independently of a new virus being around or not.
- same asker again:
- As I don't know the recommondations by heart:
- What does that mean, is there a difference or not?
- Prof W.:
- Well, there are recommondations - you will excuse that I don't know all of them for
- each and every virus and vaccine right now - but I only want to say that these recommondations
- can be read. Some are only recommended for a certain risk group, certain age group;
- these recommondations are valid independently of what is happening with the Corona virus.
- But again: The ones that are our main focus are the elderly, the very old;
- the most receptive and weakest when we are talking about diseases.
- Based on that definition, "elderly" starts for me in a year already unfortunately,
- when I turn 60.
- next:
- I wanted to ask: There are different forecasts about how many can get infected.
- Some say if it really gets out of control 40% will get infected, others say 70%.
- That is a giant difference, are there any reliable cues here?
- Prof W.:
- Forecasts are always hard, especially concerning the future.
- No, in fact these are exactly the questions we cannot answer yet.
- We will see how it will develop further, that's why we try to
- contain it as far as possible, but we can really not say.
- Ms. Glassmacher just mentioned a special situation:
- The diamond princess containing, I don't have the exact numbers,
- I think 3600 people on board, around 20% of them are infected.
- But that was a special setting, where you would assume that the
- chance of getting infected is higher than in a normal environment,
- as we normaly don't live so closely together.
- That is a number we have there, 20%, but we can really not give a
- forecast.
- next:
- Malissa ? from the NY times, I've got a question.
- Looking at China, looking at Italy with containment,
- Germany is on a different route, a little bit more open so to say,
- putting people selectively under domestic quarantine.
- Can you say something about this German strategy and why you think
- that this is the right way? Thanks.
- Prof W.:
- This is not a German strategy, this is the strategy that all countries
- employ, with a very, very small amount of exceptions.
- The major exception is, surely, China, that needs to be made clear.
- China has used a totally different strategy.
- But I want to emphazise that this is China-specific,
- because in China shortly before Christmas there was an outbreak of a,
- at that time unknown, virus that spread rapidly and they went on
- full lock down, meaning they closed off a whole city of around 11 million people,
- I think at first it was around 5 million. They totally stopped public life,
- asked everyone to stay at home, completely stopped trafic just recently.
- The whole thing is surrounded.
- Based on our information, there are 1200 teams, 5 persons each,
- doing contact tracing and advicing people 24/7, getting people treatment,
- doing tests.
- Thease are extreme measures used in China and due to the high density and
- the intensity of the outbreak at the beginning - this needs to be
- said: this outbreak happend there like an explosion, while we in the rest
- of the world are watching and waiting for each case to quickly identify it,
- allowing us to react far better. Where an outbreak is totally out of control -
- for example there are publications that at the beginning 40% of employees at some
- hospitals got infected - that is a totally different magnitude.
- We are in a way better position.
- When it started in China, there was no test, they didn't know what virus it was.
- Thus, it can really not be compared.
- next:
- I'm asking myself: When are you a suspected case?
- At first it was clear: Have symptoms and recent contact with people from
- the crisis regions in China.
- But now it starts with normal symptoms. And does a family doctor even have
- access to such Corona tests?
- Prof W.:
- That's a good question. We still have clear definitions of a suspected case.
- You were in the region in the last 14 days, the incubation period,
- the longest one we know of. So you were in a certain high risk area
- and had contact with a person that was later tested positively.
- These are two clear criteria if you are a suspected case or not.
- By now, we have further lowered that, this limit when you are tested,
- by saying that now that we have cases in Germany we also want differential
- diagnosis, meaning if someone is tested for the flu, we want the doctors
- to also test for Corona. To have a higher sensitivity, to even sooner
- recognize a Corona case. This test you are talking about is a test done
- in a lab. The important question: Will the test be covered [ by health insurance ]?
- And yes, it is.
- [ Remark here: He used "abrechnen" in German, it is my assumption that he means "covered" by that.]
- The test is quite easy: They take a sample in the upper mouth/nose region,
- send the sample into the lab and get the results after a certain time.
- Of course this option is available to all German doctors.
- So again, I can't tell you exactly how many labs already offer that test,
- but the numbers are increasing and it is technically not difficult.
- The machines to run the tests are in every standard diagnostic lab,
- so there is no capacity in sight there.
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