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Jan 21st, 2018
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  1. Question:
  2.  
  3. A biased coin is flipped 10 times. (The probability of rolling a heads is p.)
  4.  
  5. Given that 6 heads result, what is the conditional probability that the first 3 outcomes are heads,tails,tails.
  6.  
  7. What I have so far::
  8.  
  9. let A = event that you roll heads,tails,tails in your first three rolls of 10 total rolls
  10. let B = event that you roll 6 heads out of 10 total rolls
  11.  
  12. P(A given B) = P(A intersect B) / P(B)
  13.  
  14. P(B) = C(10,6)(p^6)(1-p)^4
  15. P(A intersect B) = C(7,5)(p^5)(1-p)^2
  16.  
  17. My problem::
  18. The solution is given as an explicit value not containing p. My answer of P(A intersect B)/P(B) contains the value p. Is there some way to calculate p? Or perhaps my logic is incorrect
  19.  
  20. Thank you
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