import numpy  as np
import random
Falcon_TD_rate = 0.202 #2017 0.237
Falcon_FG_rate = 0.155 #2017 0.196
Seahawks_TD_rate = 0.202 #2017 0.209
Seahawks_FG_rate = 0.155 #2017 0.148

Seahawks_win_fake = 0
Seahawks_win_FG = 0
Falcon_win = 0

no_simulation = 100000

fake_FG_success_rate = 0.38
FG_success_rate = 0.83



for i in range(no_simulation):

    for decision in range(2):
        Falcon_point = 24
        Seahawks_point = 17
        if(decision == 0):
            if(random.random() < fake_FG_success_rate):
                Seahawks_point += 7
        elif(random.random() < FG_success_rate):
                Seahawks_point += 3
        no_drive_seahawks = np.random.poisson(11.6/2+0.25)

        for drive in range(no_drive_seahawks):
            rng_number = random.random()
            if(rng_number < Seahawks_TD_rate): #Touchdown
                Seahawks_point += 7
            elif(rng_number < Seahawks_TD_rate+Seahawks_FG_rate): #Field Goal
                Seahawks_point += 3
            else:
                Seahawks_point += 0

        no_drive_falcon = np.random.poisson(11.6/2-0.25)
        for drive in range(no_drive_falcon):
            rng_number = random.random()
            if(rng_number < Falcon_TD_rate): #Touchdown
                Falcon_point += 7
            elif(rng_number < Falcon_TD_rate+Falcon_FG_rate): #Field Goal
                Falcon_point  += 3
            else:
                Falcon_point  += 0


        if(Falcon_point > Seahawks_point):
            Falcon_win += 1
        elif(Falcon_point < Seahawks_point):
            if(decision == 0):
                Seahawks_win_fake += 1
            elif(decision == 1):
                Seahawks_win_FG += 1
        else: #OT
            if(random.random() > 0.5):
                pass
            else:
                if(decision == 0):
                    Seahawks_win_fake += 1
                elif(decision == 1):
                    Seahawks_win_FG += 1

print("Win rate after fake FG = %f" % (Seahawks_win_fake/float(no_simulation)))
print("Win rate after FG = %f" % (Seahawks_win_FG/float(no_simulation)))