ssc install synth
ipolate educ year, gen(educ2) epolate by(countrycode)
clear

cd "C:\Users\Mandlenkosi Sibanda\Documents\Synth2"
use "data\sanctions.dta"
tsset countrycode year, year

#delimit;

synth 	gdp
		fdi(1997) gdp(1990) gdp(1999) inflation(1997) educ2(1998) trade2(1999)
		,
		trunit(40) trperiod(2001) unitnames(country)
		mspeperiod(1990(1)2001) resultsperiod(1990(1)2017)
	    keep(data\synth\synth_sanctions.dta) replace fig;

	   	mat list e(V_matrix);
#delimit cr


* Plot the gap in predicted error
use data\synth\synth_sanctions.dta, clear
keep _Y_treated _Y_synthetic _time
drop if _time==.
rename _time year
rename _Y_treated  treat
rename _Y_synthetic counterfact
gen gap40=treat-counterfact
sort year
twoway (line gap40 year,lp(solid)lw(vthin)lcolor(black)), yline(0, lpattern(shortdash) lcolor(black)) xline(2001, lpattern(shortdash) lcolor(black)) xtitle("",si(medsmall)) xlabel(#10) ytitle("Gap in GDP prediction error", size(medsmall)) legend(off)
save data\synth\synth_sanctions_40.dta, replace


* Placebo test
clear
use "data\sanctions.dta"
tsset countrycode year, year

#delimit;
set more off;

local countrycode   1 2 3 4  6 7 8 9 10 11 13 15 16 17 18 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40;

foreach i of local countrycode {;

synth 	gdp
		fdi(1997) gdp(1990) gdp(1999) inflation(1997) educ2(1998) trade2(1999)
		,
			trunit(`i') trperiod(2001)
			mspeperiod(1990(1)2001) resultsperiod(1990(1)2009)
			keep(data\synth\synth_sanctions_`i'.dta) replace;
			matrix country`i' = e(RMSPE); /* check the V matrix*/
			};


 foreach i of local countrycode {;
 matrix rownames country`i'=`i';
 matlist country`i', names(rows);
 };

#delimit cr


local countrycode  1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 13 15 16 17 18 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

 foreach i of local countrycode {
 	use data\synth\synth_sanctions_`i' ,clear
 	keep _Y_treated _Y_synthetic _time
 	drop if _time==.
	rename _time year
 	rename _Y_treated  treat`i'
 	rename _Y_synthetic counterfact`i'
 	gen gap`i'=treat`i'-counterfact`i'
 	sort year
 	save data\synth\synth_gap_sanctions`i'.dta, replace
}

use data\synth\synth_gap_sanctions40.dta, clear
sort year
save data\synth\placebo_sanctions40.dta, replace

foreach i of local countrycode {

		merge year using data\synth\synth_gap_sanctions`i'
		drop _merge
		sort year

	save data\synth\placebo_sanctions.dta, replace
}

* All the placeboes on the same picture
use data\synth\placebo_sanctions.dta, replace

* Picture of the full sample, including outlier RSMPE
#delimit;

twoway
(line gap1 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap2 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap4 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap6 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap8 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap9 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap10 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap11 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap13 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap15 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap16 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap17 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap18 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap20 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap21 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap22 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap23 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap24 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap25 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap26 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap27 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap28 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap29 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap30 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap31 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap32 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap33 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap34 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap35 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap36 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap37 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap38 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap39 year ,lp(solid)lw(vthin))
(line gap40 year ,lp(solid)lw(thick)lcolor(black)), /*treatment unit, Zimbabwe*/
yline(0, lpattern(shortdash) lcolor(black)) xline(2001, lpattern(shortdash) lcolor(black))
xtitle("",si(small)) xlabel(#10) ytitle("Gap in GDP per capita prediction error", size(small))
	legend(off);

#delimit cr