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- "I'm going to talk a bit about 2019-nCoV, the pneumonia-causing virus that has started spreading in China. It is not called the 'Wuhan virus'. This is because we don't name diseases/pathogens after specific places or animals anymore, in order to prevent overreaction and discrimination.
- The Chinese government has locked down Hubei Province, the epicenter of the disease, in order to minimize the spread of the virus. Respiratory infections such as pneumonia tend to spread until 80-90% of people have gained immunity, whether by contracting the infection or through some other method. It will arrive in Japan, too, sooner or later. That in itself is not something to panic about.
- The R0 is predicted to be approximately 2-3, the fatality rate about 2%. This is on par with a nasty flu. In Japan, the fatality should be even lower, due to robust social security.
- Even if patients are found in Japan, it won't be too much of a problem while patients are exclusively those returning from the geographic origin of the pneumonia. The trouble is when people who live and stay in Japan start showing symptoms as well.
- What happens at that point is that the spread of the infection will be blamed on specific factors, and we will begin hearing about unorthodox treatments for the infection. This is what has always happened in previous epidemics.
- Putting aside the origins of the coronavirus, now that it is out in the world, its spread is inevitable, and no one person can be blamed for it. Neither is the spread of the disease the fault of any particular group or social factor.
- Once an epidemic starts, it always eventually ends. In order to minimize the number of victims, the most important thing is to suppress transmission to a level where it does not overwhelm the capacity of healthcare providers.
- In order to do so, it's important to call the hospital once one exhibits symptoms, go to the hospital once instructed, and stay inside for as long as the doctor instructs. It's also important to raise widespread social support for healthcare providers, as China and the US tend to do. We should follow their example.
- Every individual citizen has a responsibility to prevent the spread of infection. It's easy: support healthcare providers, don't do anything rash, call ahead of going to the hospital, and follow the doctor's instructions about how long to stay inside. We tend to forget this, but we all have a part to play in protecting our society.
- Loudly blaming specific people, nationalities, countries, or companies doesn't solve the problem. What will protect people, society, and our country most effectively is for each individual to recognize their responsibility and act accordingly.
- Another thing: If someone contracts the pneumonia, it is not their fault for doing so. When individuals are judged harshly for contracting infection, what happens is that people only hide their symptoms. This only lengthens the epidemic and increases the number of victims. Please remember previous tragedies brought about by social stigma. If you aren't aware, go visit the National Hansen's Disease Museum in Tokyo. It shows very effectively what happens when a society lets fear of a disease overtake it.
- Everyone has a duty to prevent the spread of the disease, but that does not mean any individual should be blamed for it. This only exacerbates the spread of disease.
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