a guest Feb 16th, 2020 161 Never
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- >inb4 is not going to follow your retarded equation et similia.
- These predictions are actually merely equations that probably CCP is following too due to test kits availability or deliberately published. Does not represent factual accurate data.
- Real predictions, OBVIOUSLY, must be calculated using reliable and verifiable data with S.I.R. or S.I.S. models (I'm working in this).
- >Salsa on epidemic models and R-naught:
- >Sauce on CCP fake numbers
- >inb4 you should calculate the fatality/mortality in this or that way et similia.
- The case fatality rate (CFR) is diffentt from mortality rate, CFRs are most often used for diseases with discrete, limited time courses, such as outbreaks of acute infections.
- >Sushi on case fatality rate, mortality rate and survival rate:
- >inb4 your data is wrong/incomplete/different from xyz et similia.
- I've tracked by myself all the data from BNO, multiple times during the days. All daily datapoints are amended after Chinese official Hubei and National updates, usually at 00:00 GMT.
- >Sausage where the data is retreived:
- >inb4 your cases prediction is too wide etc.
- Cases jumped like 14,000 in one day from a 2,200 average increment. I'm using a Exponential Smoothing (ETS) algorithm so the past cases jump is inevitably widening the confidentiality bounds.
- >Chilli on forecast algo:
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