- Considering the size of their balance (15.3 bn in 2017) and their outgoings (2.8 net loss / 9.3 outgoings(?) in 2016) it seems pretty unlikely they'll fold.
- I suppose sufficient regulatory challenge could shut them down? It doesn't seem particularly likely to me, considering the number of legal challenges in its past. I also have a model of legal processes moving too slowly to shut it down in 2018
- So the main driver of probability for me will be a merge. I guess the main that would happen is if its acquired? (They acquired Jump bikes already this year, so them acquiring something can't count. Likewise, selling off part of their business (SE Asia to Grab).)
- That leaves getting acquired ... It appears to be valued between 50 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2018/02/22/breaking-down-ubers-valuation-an-interactive-analysis/) and 70 (https://www.recode.net/2018/2/9/16996834/uber-latest-valuation-72-billion-waymo-lawsuit-settlement) billion USD.
- What are the largest acquisitions? WhatsApp was 19 billion. Motorola Mobility was 12.5 billion (mostly for patents?). Github was 7.5.
- Even given a lognormal, this would be a rare event. Maybe 1%? I don't know exactly how to price in the fact that an acquisition of Uber would be a rare acquisition to the probability that Uber gets acquired.
- I'm going to go with 1 in 200.
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