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  2. 18+ One of the insiders from the Russian special services, I will publish without edits or censorship, because it's hell: "I'll be honest: I almost didn't sleep all these days, almost all the time at work, my head is slightly swirling, like in a fog. And from overwork sometimes already catching states, as if it's all not real.
  3. Frankly speaking, Pandora's Box is open - by the summer the real horror of the world scale will begin - a global famine is inevitable (Russia and Ukraine were the main suppliers of grain in the world, this year the harvest will be smaller, and logistical problems will bring the disaster to its peak).
  4. I can't tell you what guided the decision to operate, but now we (the Service) are being methodically accused of everything. We are scolded for analytics - this is very much in my line of work, so I will explain what is wrong.
  5. We have been under increasing pressure lately to adjust our reports to the demands of management-I touched on this topic once. All these political consultants, politicians and their entourage, influence teams - it all created chaos. A lot of it.
  6. The most important thing - no one knew that there would be such a war, it was hidden from everyone. And here is an example: You are asked (conventionally) to calculate the possibility of human rights in different conditions, including the attack of prisons by meteorites. You specify the meteorites, they tell you that this is just a reinsurance for calculations, there will be nothing like that. You understand that the report will be only for a tick, but it must be written in a victorious style, so that there would be no questions, saying, why do you have so many problems, did you not work well? In general, you write a report that in the fall of a meteorite, we have everything to eliminate the consequences, we are good, all is well. And you concentrate on the tasks that are real - we do not have enough strength. And then suddenly really throw meteorites and expect that everything will be according to your analytics, which were written from the ballpark.
  7. That is why we have a total fuck-up - I do not even want to choose another word. There is no defense against sanctions for the same reason: well, Nabiullina may well be found guilty of negligence (rather, the shooters from her team), but what is their fault? No one knew that there would be such a war, so no one was prepared for such sanctions. This is the flip side of secrecy: since no one was told, who could calculate what no one told about?
  8. Kadyrov is losing his mind. And there was almost a conflict with us: the Ukrainians may even have planted the lie that we were the ones who gave up the routes of Kadyrov's special units in the first days of the operation. They were killed in the most horrific way, they hadn't even begun to fight yet, and they were simply torn apart in some places. And so it went: the FSB leaked the routes to the Ukrainians. I do not have such information, I will leave 1-2% to the reliability (we cannot completely rule it out either).
  9. The blitz-crunch failed. It is simply impossible to accomplish the task now: if Zelensky and the authorities had been captured in the first 1-3 days, all the key buildings in Kiev had been seized, and the order to surrender had been read to them - yes, the resistance would have subsided to a minimum. Theoretically. But then what? Even with this ideal scenario, there was an unsolvable problem: with whom to negotiate? If we tear down Zelensky, all right, with whom would we sign agreements? If with Zelensky, then these papers won't be worth anything after his demolition. OPZJ refused to cooperate: Medvedchuk is a coward, he ran away. There is a second leader there - Boyko, but he refuses to work with us - even his own people won't understand him. We wanted to bring Tsarev back, but even our pro-Russian ones have turned against us. Should we bring back Yanukovych? How can we do that? If we say that we can't occupy him, then all our government will be killed 10 minutes after we leave. Occupy? And where are we going to get so many people? Commandant's office, military police, counterintelligence, guards - even with the minimum resistance from the locals we need 500 thousand or more people. Not counting the supply system. And there is a rule of thumb that by overriding quantity with poor management you only ruin everything. And this, I repeat, would be under an ideal scenario, which does not exist.
  10. What now? We can't declare mobilization for two reasons:
  11. 1) Large-scale mobilization will undermine the situation inside the country: political, economic, and social.
  12. 2) Our logistics are already overstretched today. We will drive many times the contingent, and what will we get? Ukraine is a huge country in terms of territory. And now the level of hatred towards us is off the charts. Our roads simply can't absorb such supply caravans - everything will come to a standstill. And we won't be able to manage it, because it's chaos.
  13. And these two reasons we have fallen out at the same time, although even one is enough to ruin everything.
  14. As for casualties: I don't know how many there are. Nobody knows. The first two days there was still control, now no one knows what's going on there. It is possible to lose large units from communication. They may be found, or they may be dispersed because they were attacked. And even their commanders may not know how many are running around, how many have died, how many have been taken prisoner. The death toll is definitely in the thousands. It can be 10 thousand, it can be 5, and it can be only 2. Even the headquarters do not know exactly. But it must be closer to 10. And we are not counting the corps of the LDPR now - they have their own count.
  15. Now even if we kill Zelensky and take him prisoner, nothing will change. Chechnya is on the level of hatred towards us. And now even those who were loyal to us are against it. Because they were planning on above, because we were told that such an option will not happen, unless we are attacked. Because we were told that we must create the most credible threat in order to negotiate peacefully on the right terms. Because we initially prepared protests inside Ukraine against Zelensky. Without regard to our direct entry. An invasion, to put it simply.
  16. Further losses of civilians will go exponentially - and the resistance to us will also only intensify. We have already tried to enter cities with infantry - out of twenty airborne groups, only one was a conditional success. Remember the storming of Mosul - this is the rule, it was the same for all countries, nothing new.
  17. Keeping them under siege? According to the experience of military conflicts in Europe in recent decades (Serbia is the largest testing ground here), cities under siege can remain under siege for years, and even function. Humanitarian convoys from Europe there are just a matter of time.
  18. We have a conditional deadline of June. Conditional - because in June we have no economy left, nothing left. By and large, next week will begin to turn to one side, simply because the situation cannot be in such overdrive. There is no analytics - you can't calculate the chaos, no one can say anything for sure here. Acting on intuition, and even on emotion - but this is not poker. Stakes will be raised, hoping that suddenly some option will shoot through. The trouble is that we too can miscalculate now and lose everything in one move.
  19. By and large, the country has no way out. There is simply no way to win, and if we lose, we're screwed. We 100% repeated the beginning of the last century, when we decided to kick weak Japan and get a quick victory, then it turned out that the army was a disaster, then we started the war until the end, then they began to take Bolsheviks to "reeducate" them in the army - they were marginal, no one was interested in the masses. And then the Bolsheviks, who no one really knew, picked up anti-war slogans and got into such a mess...
  20. On the plus side, we did everything we could to prevent even a hint of mass sending of the "fine men" to the front lines. Send in the convicts and the "socially unreliable" and the political (so they don't muddy the waters inside the country) - the morale of the army will simply go down the drain. And the enemy is motivated, motivated monstrously. They know how to fight, there are enough middle-ranking commanders. They have weapons. They have support. We will simply create a precedent for human losses in the world. That's all.
  21. What we fear most of all: the rule at the top is to cover up an old problem with a new one. This was largely the reason why the Donbass of 2014 began - it was necessary to draw the attention of Westerners away from the topic of the Russian spring in Crimea, so the Donbass crisis was supposed to draw all the attention to itself and become a bargaining chip. But even bigger problems started there. Then they decided to sell Erdogan on the four pipes of South Stream and went into Syria - this was after Suleimani gave deliberately false inputs to solve his problems. As a result, it did not work to close the issue with the Crimea, there are problems with Donbass too, South Stream was compressed to 2 pipes, and Syria is another headache (if we leave, they will bring down Assad, which will make us look idiots, but it is difficult and useless to sit).
  22. I don't know who came up with the "Ukrainian blitz. If we were given real inputs, we would at the very least point out that the original plan is controversial, that we need to double-check a lot of things. A lot of things. Now we are up to our necks in shit. And it's not clear what to do. "Denazification" and "demilitarization" are not analytical categories, because they have no clearly formed parameters by which to determine the level of accomplishment or non-fulfillment of the assigned task.
  23. Now we just have to wait for some fucking advisor to convince the upper echelons to start a conflict with Europe, demanding the reduction of some sanctions. It's either that or war. And if they refuse? Now I don't rule out that then we'll get into a real international conflict like Hitler did in 1939. And then we will get our Z's flattened with a swastika.
  24. Is there a possibility of a local nuclear strike? Yes. Not for military purposes (it won't do anything - this is a defense breakthrough weapon), but to intimidate others. At the same time the ground is being prepared to turn everything over to Ukraine - Naryshkin and his SVR are now digging the ground to prove that they secretly created nuclear weapons there. They are hammering on what we have studied and analysed on bones long time ago: the proofs cannot be drawn up on a knee-high, and the availability of specialists and uranium (Ukraine is full of depleted isotope 238) is of no importance. The production cycle there is such that it cannot be done unnoticed. "The fact that their old nuclear power plants can give weapon-grade plutonium (plants like REB-1000 give it in minimal quantities as a "by-product" of the reaction) - so the Americans have introduced such control with the involvement of the IAEA that it is stupid to discuss the topic.
  25. Do you know what will start in a week? Well, in two weeks even. We're about to be hit so hard that we're going to miss the hungry '90s. While the auction was closed, Nabiullina seems to be making normal steps - but it's like plugging a hole in the dam with a finger. It will still burst, and even stronger. Neither for 3, nor for 5, nor for 10 days nothing will be solved already.
  26. Kadyrov is hoofing it for a reason - they have their own adventures there. He has created an image of himself as the most influential and invincible. And if he falls once, he will be brought down by his own people. He won't be the master of the victorious teip any more.
  27. Moving on. Syria. "The guys will hold out, everything will be over in Ukraine - and we'll reinforce the positions there in Syria again. And now at any moment they can wait for the contingent to run out of resources - and such a heat wave will come... Turkey is blocking the straits - flying supplies there is like heating an oven with money.
  28. Note - all this is happening at the same time, we do not even have time to put it all in one pile. We have a situation like Germany in '43-44. At the start all at once. Sometimes I'm already lost from this overwork, sometimes it seems that everything was a dream and it was a dream, that everything is the same as before.
  29. The prisons, by the way, will be worse. Now they are going to tighten the screws until they bleed to death. Everywhere. To be honest, this is technically the only chance we have to contain the situation - we are already in a total mobilization mode. But we can't stay in such a mode for long, and our timing is unclear, and it will only get worse. Mobilization always makes management lose its way. And just imagine: you can run a hundred meters in a sprint, but to go into a marathon race and run as hard as you can is bad. Here we are with the Ukrainian question rushed as on the hundred-meter run, but fit into a cross-country marathon.
  30. And that's a very, very brief summary of what's going on.
  31. As a cynic, I would only add that I do not believe that BB Putin will press the red button to destroy the whole world.
  32. First of all, it's not just one person who makes the decision, at least some of them will bail. And there are a lot of people there - there is no "single red button.
  33. Secondly, there are some doubts that everything there is functioning successfully. Experience shows that the higher the transparency and control, the easier it is to identify deficiencies. And where it is unclear who and how controls, but always bravura reports - there everything is always wrong. I am not sure that the red button system is functioning as declared. Besides, the plutonium charge must be replaced every 10 years.
  34. Third, and this is the saddest part, I personally do not believe in the willingness to sacrifice a man who does not allow his closest representatives and ministers near him, not even the members of the Federation Council. Whether out of fear of coronavirus or attack, it doesn't matter. If you are afraid to let your most trusted ones near you, how will you dare to destroy yourself and your loved ones inclusive?
  35. If anything, ask, but I may not answer for a few days. We're in rush mode, and we're getting more and more busy.
  36. On the whole, our reports are upbeat, but everything is going to hell.
  37. Never before had this source Gulagu.net swore, wrote short and to the point. But now even he...
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