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  1. # inkdwell.vue.507 : **State of the World 2020: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky**
  2. ## [permalink #0](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post0) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Master of Ceremonies [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Mon 6 Jan 20 09:08_
  3.  
  4. Welcome to State of the World 2020, 21st century fruitcake edition.
  5.  
  6. We hope to find the tasty maraschinos in the fruitcake sludge that
  7. surrounds the beginning of this new decade.  Switching metaphors, we
  8. are approaching the Thundering Twenties ... thunder, rain, and
  9. lightning flashing - right through the middle of it, we'll go
  10. dashing, ignoring the heavy weather, the psychic storms, the
  11. confusion boats steering wild. (h/t Roger Miller)
  12.  
  13. As always, Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky lead the conversation,
  14. reliable narrators working without spin, at a time we're told (by
  15. the anti-consigliere) that truth isn't truth. We'll be joined by
  16. musician/composer Holly Herndon and philosopher and digital artist
  17. Mat Dryhurst. Also various members of the WELL (our host platform),
  18. and others who follow the conversation and email comments or
  19. questions from time to time. (Send emails to inkwell-hosts at
  20. well.com).
  21.  
  22. Bruce is a science fiction author, speaker, sometimes design critic,
  23. and culture hacker known for his many books, writings, and talks.
  24.  
  25. Jon is co-editor of the Plutopia News Network, writer,  and digital
  26. culture maven.
  27.  
  28. If by following this conversation you find synapses firing, if it
  29. makes you get up and move, especially if you feel like dancing, then
  30. we've done our job. Gloomy as the future appears right now, our best
  31. way forward is in the Zimbabwean proverb: "If you can walk, you can
  32. dance, if you can talk, you can sing."
  33.  
  34. The WELL is a seminal online community that has been around and
  35. active for 35 years.  You can be part of ongoing conversations like
  36. this one by joining the WELL:[ https://www.well.com/join/](https://www.well.com/join/)  - which
  37. you might want to do if you're tired of the drive-by posting formats
  38. of Facebook and Twitter and would rather be part of a real
  39. community.
  40.  
  41. Onward we go, through the virtual fog...
  42.  
  43. ## [permalink #1](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post1) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 01:45_
  44.  
  45. MMXX, Year of the Rat!
  46.  
  47. I'm grateful for our WELL State of the World tradition.  Just
  48. imagine if we lacked the heritage of our commentary here, and we had
  49. to start yelling about the state of our planet's affairs,
  50. flat-footed, from a cold start.
  51.  
  52. Anybody can spontaneously rant, but a ranting tradition is a
  53. different, nobler, more meaningful matter. It's like making a new
  54. friend, versus cherishing the dwindling number of your old, loyal,
  55. trusted, old ones.   With an established tradition, you know who you
  56. are and where you stand -- even if you're in Ibiza.
  57.  
  58. Which is where I am now, just like in  WELL SOTW 02018 and 02019.
  59.  
  60. ## [permalink #2](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post2) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 01:45_
  61.  
  62. Are there any major differences between my activities in Ibiza in
  63. 02018, and here in MMXX, the mystical dawn of a new decade?  Yeah,
  64. sorta.  
  65.  
  66. I used to roam the streets of Ibiza as I normally roam streets of
  67. any strange city, toting an efficient global-nomad shoulder-bag,
  68. crammed with electronics and travel-survival knickknacks.  This year
  69. I just carry a  floppy canvas grocery bag.
  70.  
  71. Admittedly, it's a tote-bag from the distant "Bangalore Literary
  72. Festival," but nobody cares about branding.  If you carry groceries
  73. around in a bag, nobody sees you.  Because obviously you must be
  74. local.
  75.  
  76. It's the foreigners and tourists who have those ergonomic,
  77. airplane-centric, efficient bags. They don't slop around with cheap
  78. canvas bags meant for onions.
  79.  
  80. So what I'm sporting in Ibiza in MMXX is camouflage for our new
  81. era of ethnonationalism and "overtourism," a term recently invented
  82. in nearby Barcelona.  
  83.  
  84. ## [permalink #3](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post3) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 01:46_
  85.  
  86. Torino, where I hang out rather more often, is boasting about
  87. their tourism this year.  Their tourist racket is doing great.
  88.  
  89. Huge, posh culture shows, hotels packed to capacity.  They figured
  90. out how to chisel tourists in their municipal subway system, the
  91. restaurants shovel "Il Food" into the foreign gourmets, so they're
  92. doing fine.   Turin is still haunted by the Crisis of 2008, so signs
  93. of lively popularity are welcome to them.
  94.  
  95.  
  96. Barcelona and Ibiza, by contrast,  struggle to keep the jetset
  97. at bay.  They don't build Trump Walls against the tourists, or
  98. confine them in Xinjiang camps, or cut their connectivity
  99. Kashmir-style -- but at basis it's the same phenomenon, just with a
  100. different victim-class.
  101.  
  102. I'm never here in Ibiza during the big "season," where the
  103. foreign crowds get intense and obnoxious.   I come to Ibiza to work
  104. on fiction.  I write here without much distraction, because there's
  105. nothing going on in Ibiza this time of year except for road, wharf
  106. and hotel repair.  Even New Years is muted: the native Ibizans don't
  107. party much, because they get paid to do that.
  108.  
  109. That's why, in Ibiza in MMXX, I  resemble an Ibiza
  110. construction worker who is out buying some cabbage.  I wear gray
  111. nylon cargo pants and blue-striped Pablo Picasso sailor shirts.  My
  112. shoes look a little weird, but most blue-collar people in Ibiza have
  113. some vague former-hippie cast to them.  Grocery checkout girls have
  114. tattooed fingers, guys mending fishing nets have yin-yang figurines,
  115. suburban gardens have Buddha shrines, that's who they are.  I don't
  116. mind that about them.  I get it. I sympathize.
  117.  
  118. Sympathy makes me dress as a guy who would never stay in an AirBnB
  119. or hire an Uber.  These Silicon Valley unicorns have become the
  120. class enemies of Barcelona.  Uber-using AirBnB lurkers are
  121. recognized as potential hostiles.  
  122.  
  123. ## [permalink #4](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post4) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 01:47_Barcelona hates the twenty-teens digital vanguard just as much
  124. as San Francisco does.  Any allure that globalized network-culture
  125. once held is just  over; it's well past the "New Dark" and the
  126. disbelieving malaise, and advanced into a subdued riot feeling.
  127.  
  128. Anything  that American technology tries to pull in Europe has
  129. Trump's face stamped on it.  Everyone just assumes it's a lie, a
  130. fraud, a subterfuge and a grift, and they're gonna get rooked, if
  131. not murdered by drones.  So far, in response, they can riot or
  132. strike -- in France, for over a year now -- but they can't
  133. accomplish anything administratively, because the entire political
  134. class and the oligarchs have all bought into it.This is not exactly fascist oppression, but it's gone well
  135. beyond mere discontent.  It's an advancing cultural sensibility,
  136. like "New Dark 1.2," where everybody knows the lights have been
  137. turned out, but nobody thinks they're gonna come back on, because
  138. the guys at the fossil power plant want to make Darkness the
  139. standard.
  140.  
  141. ## [permalink #5](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post5) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 01:48_People like to focus their attention on The Donald, because the
  142. actual media is in abject collapse, so there's nothing but demagogic
  143. social media and the right-wing TV machine, and The Donald is great
  144. at that.  However, this sensibility I'm describing is not merely
  145. American or Trumpian,  it really is the State of the World.  Other
  146. nations have more advanced versions of it than Americans do.
  147.  
  148. There used to be certain planetary regions and polities that
  149. were markedly different from the rest, but in MMXX, even though
  150. everybody claims they're antiglobal, sovereign and patriotic,
  151. everybody's very the-same.
  152.  
  153. The BRICS for instance, Brazil Russia India China South Africa,
  154. it used to be modish to think that they were an emerging
  155. ex-Third-World bloc  with radically different values, but they
  156. aren't.  Brazil is Trumpistan with a Trump who is less sleepy and
  157. more predatory.
  158.  
  159. Russia is anti-global but pro-oligarch -- they're the only
  160. nation-state that has tamed their rich people, because their spies
  161. eat them.  
  162.  
  163. India is doing its level best to become China, with a
  164. Trumpistan strongman leader.  India is slavishly following the new
  165. Xinjiang model of naming, numbering, surveilling and confining the
  166. Muslims in vast regions of imposed Internet darkness.  They're also
  167. sending out fascist squadrons of club-wielding Party operatives to
  168. beat up college students.  India is polarizing fast, between the
  169. majority-ethnic ultra-nationalists and everyone else who doesn't
  170. want to get stepped on.  Not a particularly Indian situation.  It's
  171. a state of the world situation with some Indian characteristics.
  172.  
  173. South Africa is going sideways, it's just a mess and has no
  174. solutions to offer anybody.
  175.  
  176. Britain seems plausibly different because they've engaged in
  177. the most extreme act of frantic self-harm, but they seem to simply
  178. have the high-grade fever version of the some low-grade global
  179. disease that everybody else also has.  I hope to get into some of
  180. Boris Johnson's activities later, because BoJo interests me a lot;
  181. he's a rare version of a political writer who is actually weirder,
  182. and makes up weirder stuff, than most science fiction writers.  Hey,
  183. they elected him.  Whatever noisome slurry that BoJo dishes out in
  184. their Oliver Twist bowls, they were begging for it.
  185.  
  186. I used to closely follow Estonia and Dubai, because they were
  187. small, fast-moving countries, deliberately futuristic and keenly
  188. aware of their own outlier weirdness.  Here in MMXX, I needn't
  189. bother.  Estonia has caught the ethnonational disease, so, instead
  190. of lathering-on their sleek high-tech virtuality, they whine about
  191. foreign immigrants and their precious Estonian-ness.  The autocrat
  192. sheik of Dubai had a sex scandal, and his Vanguard of Happiness got
  193. sour in a hurry when a defector concubine scampered out of the
  194. harem.  It's bad.  It's  not "chop up dissidents with chainsaws"
  195. bad, but it's not good.
  196.  
  197. ## [permalink #6](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post6) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 01:49_
  198.  
  199. It's strange that there's so much unanimity in this new
  200. worldwide sensibility.  Russia and the USA have never been so much
  201. alike as nations and peoples, ever.  When American Republicans say
  202. they prefer Putin to Democrats, that sounds weird, but Democrats
  203. would probably prefer Putin to Trump.
  204.  
  205. China is sort of exotic and different, at least they claim they
  206. have exotic and inscrutable "Chinese Characteristics," but they've
  207. got the huge septic sore of Hong Kong, and all they can do about is
  208. deceive themselves and lie to everybody else.  Xinjiang, the Chinese
  209. high-tech AI solution to Muslim belt-bombs, is so direly unpleasant
  210. that the Han majority, eager merchants who should be flooding out
  211. along the New Silk Road to conquer the planet's Eurasian commerce,
  212. are packing up and leaving Xinjiang.  The normal people are too
  213. disgusted to sell anything.  They can't stand the everyday ugliness.
  214.  
  215. In response to these self-made disorders, Xi Jianping, who is an
  216. engineer and used to have some grasp of measurable reality, decides
  217. to re-write both the Koran and the Bible, so as to align these
  218. foreign texts with state-approved Xi Jianping Thought.   Okay, I'm a
  219. novelist with  vague postmodern tendencies, so I wouldn't mind
  220. rewriting the Bible myself.   But really -- you could ask Sun Tzu --
  221. what is the end-game of a politician attacking ancient scripture?
  222.  
  223. Could there be any political gesture more blatantly phony,
  224. egomaniacal, self-parodic?  Even Trump doesn't re-write the damn
  225. Bible, he just co-opts all the televangelists.
  226.  
  227. ## [permalink #7](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post7) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 01:50_
  228.  
  229. Also, while all this deceit, mummery, hucksterism and hubristic
  230. fooforaw goes on, mainstream cultural assumptions are quietly
  231. disappearing.  Mainstream consumer capitalism is dying, fast and
  232. silent and for good, like its shopping malls.  There aren't any
  233. "consumers," there are just oligarchs and the rabble.
  234.  
  235. There's not a lot that's brand-new in MMXX, but under cover of the
  236. smog, old institutions and assumptions are  disappearing. You can't
  237. just say, "let's go back and do it the old way," because there is
  238. nothing left to be old-fashioned with.  The conservatives  have
  239. destroyed everything they wanted to conserve.  The liberals have
  240. nothing much to be liberal with or about, except gay sex and
  241. marijuana.
  242.  
  243. The Republican Party used to be keen on the cultural bedrock of
  244. family values, balancing the budget, nitpicking the Constitution,
  245. global imperialism, military valor, arming the populace...
  246.  
  247. right-wing, but American right-wing.  In MMXX the Republicans are a
  248. basic ethnonational party; they're quite like Russians, Hungarians
  249. or Serbs,  hicks who will put up with anything as long as it coddles
  250. their identity issues. Of course they lie about that, but since they're lying about
  251. religion and race, which everybody always lies about, they figure
  252. they've got a mighty fortress there.  It's not all that mighty.  The
  253. Confederacy lost.  Even the Nazis and the Soviets lost.
  254.  
  255. ## [permalink #8](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post8) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 01:52_
  256.  
  257. It's just not the Republican apparatchiks who have abandoned all
  258. previous moral convictions for a mess of pottage -- all the US
  259. population is like that.  The Americans used to be self-assured,
  260. mobile, visionary, inventive; now they're hunkered-down, dogmatic,
  261. disinterested in any consensus; they're 100% American-Dream-Free. The American life expectancy is in decline: they can't keep
  262. death at bay.  The American health care system is so astonishingly
  263. bad that black Americans escaped being murdered with opioids,
  264. because the racist American sickness-industry refused to prescribe
  265. them any of the pills.  This is the domestic narcotic biz version of
  266. voter suppression.  That is an unhealthy polity.
  267.  
  268. ## [permalink #9](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post9) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 01:52_
  269.  
  270. The Russians, by contrast, have learned to drink less vodka.
  271.  
  272. Their birthrate has even popped up a little.  Physically, they're
  273. improving, and I'm glad at that news  Yes, the Russians are
  274. diligently waging all kinds of asymmetrical warfare, they have built
  275. their own domestic Splinternet to subvert, repel and destroy the
  276. Internet,  and they will pitch any dreadful thing over their
  277. firewall from nerve-gas to barrel-bombs, but I feel happier about
  278. them.   They scared me, because I thought  they would die en masse
  279. of sheer disillusionment,  hapless spite,  weltschmerz and morbid
  280. despair.
  281.  
  282. Probably the Russians will manage.  They're a great nation which
  283. is not suicidal.  Their fearless leader will dump the wife of the
  284. children for a sexy gymnast, but they aren't kamikazes, and they
  285. don't need belt-bombs. The Russians in MMXX are Putin-Czarist hick
  286. fundies whose ultra-illusory worldview make literally no sense,  and
  287. deliberately so, but at least they're not dead on their feet.  Even
  288. a dopey GRU assassin from the backwoods of Siberia is less scary
  289. than a hollow-eyed zombie.
  290.  
  291. ## [permalink #10](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post10) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 01:53_
  292.  
  293. So in MMXX, we're in a world situation that claims to be
  294. post-global and post-Internet and post world-trade, where everybody
  295. wants to take back control, be great again, assure sovereign
  296. cyberspace, set tariffs, jail immigrant tots, beat up ethnic
  297. minorities, nurture billionaires, ignore science, and reduce
  298. education to assure that there are fewer brainy chicks -- but in
  299. practice, there's no big difference among the players.  They ALL do
  300. that.  There's next to no genuine cultural variety.  They all use
  301. the same hardware, slogans and techniques.
  302.  
  303. Also, there's no technological innovation in MMXX. Innovation
  304. and invention are out of style.  The closest we've got to innovation
  305. is "capital moating," where you start some allegedly technical
  306. company to screw around with, say, hotels or taxis, and throw so
  307. many billions at the project that businessmen are awed.  That's
  308. financially innovative -- sort of -- it's like the space-aviation
  309. biz staying aloft by angling subsidies.  That's not Moore's Law,
  310. there's nothing amazingly great that is busting out of the garage to
  311. set Google-Apple-Facebook-Amazon-Microsoft on their ear.  There is
  312. no wonderment, because there is no reason to wonder.
  313.  
  314. The  fix is in. The Industry has consolidated.  Best of the year
  315. lists from tech journalists have been replaced by lists of the worst
  316. things happening in tech.   For the first time in my life, it's
  317. getting hard to find any genuine technical novelty.
  318.  
  319. ## [permalink #11](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post11) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 01:53_
  320.  
  321. Unless, that is, you play Holly Herndon records -- not that
  322. Holly makes "records" out of fossil-fueled vinyl, for that would be
  323. antique.  However, I stream a lot of mp3s off the laptop into the
  324. Ibiza stereo here, and whenever I play Holly Herndon, that's when my
  325. wife stops whatever she's doing and demands "What is that?  Where
  326. did that come from?"
  327.  
  328. In her most recent effort, "Proto," it came from Dr Herndon's
  329. deep-learner Artificial Intelligence that was trained to sing in
  330. chorus with human beings, and that is some chorus.  We anticipate
  331. that Dr Herndon and her Significant Technical Associate, Matt
  332. Dryhurst, will join our chorus here in the State of the World.  They
  333. may be on tour, or DJing, but whatever happens to musicians will
  334. happen to everybody.
  335.  
  336.  
  337. ## [permalink #12](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post12) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Lena via lendie [(lendie)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 06:14_
  338.  
  339. What can one say after that bit of cheer but Happy New Year and
  340. Happy New Decade!
  341.  
  342. ## [permalink #13](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post13) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 06:45_
  343.  
  344. We're into overtourism ourselves, lately. Not the royal we, but my
  345. longtime spouse/partner Marsha and I. She's plugged into an array of
  346. travel networks, and planning trips has become her full-time
  347. preoccupation. Even as we travel, she's planning the next few trips.
  348.  
  349. We spent some time in Miami Beach recently, a shiny place with
  350. creative spunk, great food, wild clothes, a graffiti aesthetic, hot
  351. cars buzzing the streets. All I could think was how it would all be
  352. under water in a decade. It felt haunted, in a way. When you live
  353. there, do you think about this inevitable future disaster? A few
  354. years ago we visited the Washington coast, destined someday to be
  355. wiped out by a tidal wave when the Cascadia subduction zone slips.
  356.  
  357. We discussed the potential disaster with a woman working in a
  358. restaurant, and I mentioned evac signs and safety plans. She said
  359. there's no way we can escape when it hits. The safety plan is mostly
  360. to help children sleep at night, apparently. A park ranger told us
  361. she'd been living with the possibility all her life, yet she
  362. remains. She'd shaved her head, as if for frictionless escape.
  363.  
  364. ## [permalink #14](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post14) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 06:46_
  365.  
  366. Human extinction seems inevitable, at least on one level, but on
  367. another level we just keep living, moving, working, making,
  368. ruminating, traveling, entertaining, eating, sleeping, dumping  - we
  369. don't think about the inevitability of extinction any more than we
  370. think of our very specific, inevitable individual demise, in my case
  371. not many years away.
  372.  
  373. ## [permalink #15](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post15) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 06:47_
  374.  
  375. On New Years' Eve MMXX we made the short trip downtown, where we
  376. stayed the night.  We were downtown for the big Esther's Follies
  377. NYEve show, missing the fireworks, perhaps making some of our own.
  378.  
  379. We toasted the transition with the reliably energetic, wildly funny
  380. Esther's troupe, including magician Ray Anderson, whose talent was
  381. to disappear grimness and woe. If only he could extend his magic....
  382.  
  383. ## [permalink #16](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post16) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 06:47_
  384.  
  385. Walking to the hotel, we saw diverse revelers crowding the streets,
  386. lined up for pizza and beer, waving transparent balloons, dancing,
  387. spinning, drunk with the moment.  Outside the hotel, we saw a young
  388. girl in a deep blue party dress and wobbly heels, unable to stand,
  389. sitting in a puddle of ... some liquid, I won't assume. Thinking to
  390. myself, I hope that's not an omen.  In the elevator, we ride with a
  391. twenty-something man wearing a bow tie and a blank drunken stare.
  392.  
  393. Friendly, but barely able to string a sentence. Through the glass
  394. elevator as we ride up, we see sequined dresses and tuxedoes.  For
  395. them, is it a night to remember, or a hope to forget?
  396.  
  397. ## [permalink #17](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post17) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Umbaugh [(bumbaugh)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 09:44_
  398.  
  399. Whatever happens to musicians ....
  400.  
  401. So, yeah. What's happening to musicians next that we can expect to
  402. come for the rest of us? What does streaming look like, for
  403. instance, in other lines of work?
  404.  
  405. ## [permalink #18](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post18) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Alan Fletcher [(af)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 11:11_
  406.  
  407. Is it just me .. or is that the most depressing State of the World
  408. introduction we've ever had?
  409.  
  410. ## [permalink #19](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post19) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Administrivia [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 12:07_
  411.  
  412. Short link for the public view of this conversation is
  413. http://bit.ly/sotw-2020 - please feel free to share far and wide.
  414.  
  415. Suggested hashtag: #sotw-2020
  416. If you're not a member of the WELL, and you want to make a comment
  417. or ask a question, you have two options:
  418. 1) Join the WELL and add directly to the conversation, or
  419. 2) Send your comment or question > Via email to inkwell-hosts at
  420. well.com.
  421.  
  422. If you want to join the WELL, here's the link:
  423. https://www.well.com/join/
  424.  
  425. ## [permalink #20](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post20) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 12:08_
  426.  
  427. <af> It's not just you!
  428.  
  429. ## [permalink #21](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post21) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Lena via lendie [(lendie)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 12:35_
  430.  
  431. See #12
  432.  
  433. ## [permalink #22](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post22) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Alan Fletcher [(af)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 12:47_
  434.  
  435. Ah ... but <12> still implies some optimism for the year and decade.
  436.  
  437. ## [permalink #23](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post23) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Matthew McClure [(mmc)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 13:02_
  438.  
  439. Looking for green shoots in a bleak landscape.
  440.  
  441. There may not be much consumer innovation, but battery technology
  442. seems to be screaming along - lithium-sulphur, Ryden dual carbon,
  443. etc.:[ http://bit.ly/2s4LE9N](http://bit.ly/2s4LE9N) has a breezy non-technical overview.
  444.  
  445. And Mark Z. Jacobson at Stanford offers some hope with his analysis
  446. that we could provide 100% of energy requirements without fossil
  447. fuels.
  448.  
  449. And Chris Anderson and TED and doing Countdown,
  450. https://countdown.ted.com/, so the word may spread a little.
  451.  
  452. ## [permalink #24](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post24) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Matthew McClure [(mmc)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 13:03_
  453.  
  454. Oops. "and doing Countdown" would read more sensibly if I'd typed
  455. "are doing Countdown".
  456.  
  457. ## [permalink #25](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page01.html#post25) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): redraw Gantt charts in his head [(nanlev)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 14:06_
  458.  
  459. Mark Jacobson's analysis is problematic, and overlooks some
  460. real-world issues with renewables, but it's good to see someone
  461.  
  462. pushing that envelope to its farthest reaches.
  463.  
  464. ## [permalink #26](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post26) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): ixak [(ixak23)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 14:09_
  465.  
  466. "This is not exactly fascist oppression, but it's gone well beyond
  467. mere discontent.  It's an advancing cultural sensibility, like "New
  468. Dark 1.2," where everybody knows the lights have been turned out,
  469. but nobody thinks they're gonna come back on, because the guys at
  470. the fossil power plant want to make Darkness the standard."
  471.  
  472. To paraphrase a colleague of yours, Bruce, the "New Dark" is already
  473. here, it's just not  equally distributed. I started my year in the
  474. Philippines and ended it in Chad, with stops in Uganda, Palestine,
  475. and Baltimore in-between. There is a fatalistic thread that I
  476. continue to encounter around the world - the assumption in most of
  477. the developing world is that the game is rigged to favor an elite
  478. minority, and much of the white middle class seems to be figuring
  479. that out only just now.
  480.  
  481. The malaise is real, and the appeal of fascism (and other
  482. governments that rely on tribal/ethnic patronage for popular
  483. support) is it's promise that the lights will at least stay on for
  484. people like US. It seems to me that the path to countering this is
  485. to do our best to turn the lights on for everyone.
  486.  
  487. ## [permalink #27](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post27) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Kevin Welch [(kwelch)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 7 Jan 20 21:14_
  488.  
  489. My global travels this year took me to France, where in my
  490. admittedly broken French I was unable to find a single fan of
  491. Macron, which is probably not surprising given said year of riots.
  492.  
  493. It seems in our New Dark 1.2 each country has a choice between a
  494. neo-liberal overlord who will take your money and give it to their
  495. friends and a ethno-nationalist proto-fascist who will take your
  496. money and give it to their friends, with the only difference between
  497. the two being whom they're blaming for the grift instead of
  498. themselves. It's like a pan-nationalist version of the two-party
  499. system. Warren Ellis anticipated this phenomenon in
  500. Transmetropolitan when he talked about politicians being either The
  501. Smiler or The Beast.
  502.  
  503. ## [permalink #28](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post28) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 8 Jan 20 00:38_
  504.  
  505. In the last State of the World I made a passing mention of Bill
  506. Gates, so I thought I might briefly return for a glance at the
  507. Gates-ometer.  
  508. Bill informs his social media followers that he's gotten very
  509. interested in getting enough healthy sleep, and that he's deeply
  510. engaged in reading good novels.  There's also a few of Bill's
  511. customary hobbyhorse remarks about nuclear power plants and averting
  512. senile decline.
  513.  
  514. I can't blame Bill for sleeping through this one.  If I didn't have
  515. the WELL State of the World to awake me from my dogmatic slumbers,
  516. I'd be sleeping more myself, and, hey, I sleep like a top.  Also,
  517. I've got a stack of unread novels on the shelf, plus one I need to
  518. compose.  
  519. Bill, though has become "Good Billionaire" in an era of Oligarchy.
  520.  
  521. Life was more interesting to Bill when he was unique among
  522. billionaires.  Now he's on the back foot, it's like he's stuck in a
  523. traffic jam of yachts.
  524.  
  525. Bill Gates doesn't seem depressed or particularly anxious about
  526. current affairs.  It's also good that he's not being all
  527. phony-upbeat or engaging in the cherry-picking game of
  528. "things-are-awful-but."  Basically, Bill seems to be reserving his
  529. energies and trying to avoid dementia until he finds an era more
  530. hospitable to his vision of rationalist techno-philanthropy.  Maybe
  531. in an Andrew Yang Administration -- but I dunno if he will ever
  532. again participate in public life in the dynamic way he once did.
  533.  
  534. This is the first year when Bill strikes me as an old-fashioned
  535. figure,  a Boomer outwitted by events, trending toward fuddy-duddy.
  536.  
  537. ## [permalink #29](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post29) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 8 Jan 20 01:22_
  538.  
  539. I’ve spent time in nations dominated by oligarchy.  Oligarchy feels
  540. strange and different to Americans, but it’s by no means a new
  541. condition in the world.  The condition of social affairs there is
  542. not “depressing.”  It’s “humiliating.”
  543. It’s about humiliation, not sadness.  Huge class differentiation and
  544. vast wealth disparity is about humbling people.  People have to be
  545. taught there’s a lot they just can’t do that their betters can do,
  546. and they’re better off not asserting themselves or making trouble
  547. above their station, unless they’ve pledged fealty to some nobleman
  548. who commands resources.  You can see the world fumbling itself
  549. toward this kind of social situation, in events like US Senators
  550. humbly sheltering themselves in Trump’s buildings, and talentless
  551. Trump children as de facto cabinet members.
  552.  
  553. Americans are humiliated.  That’s why they’re keen on personal-power
  554. fetish symbols like handguns. They cling to the Jeffersonian-yeoman
  555. seilf-image, but that’s not the world they’re in.
  556.  
  557. ## [permalink #30](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post30) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 8 Jan 20 01:24_
  558.  
  559. The world in MMXX is not in Crisis like it was in 2008, because it’s
  560. become Oligarchic.  It’s a nascent oligarchy that is global in
  561. scope, but is unsure of itself and hasn’t written any rules. It
  562. lacks the palace etiquette of functional aristocracies.  They’re
  563. like the rude-and-crude Oligarchs in the post-Soviet Transition, and
  564. who went to the same sauna bath-houses and knew the same call-girls,
  565. but lacked a rule-of-law to protect them from murdering one another.
  566.  
  567. But they did have Putin, who got it about them and their issues,
  568. could out-murder anybody else because he was wrapped in the national
  569. flag.  The siloviki clique of the Petersburg FSB set up a stable
  570. spy-based deep-state, which is now becoming Russian Sovereign
  571. Cyberspace.  It’s not “rule of law,” but it is a stable surveillance
  572. state and a stable media-control state.  Managed democracy.
  573.  
  574. ## [permalink #31](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post31) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 8 Jan 20 01:25_
  575.  
  576. Also, Russians don’t mind it that much.  They’re upset if they’re
  577. intelligentsia or ideaiistic, but if you’re Ivan Sixpack, daily life
  578. seems doable, if not exactly truthful or  reasonable.   Moscow looks
  579. clean and shiny, your country is grabbing chunks of Ukraine in the
  580. teeth of the former international order and getting away with it,
  581. while Trump does whatever Putin says, mostly… So there are  valid
  582. reasons for patriotic national enthusiasm, because the world is
  583. coming to look like you — much more than you have to conform to the
  584. world.  
  585. So, yes, Putin is an oligarch spy autocrat and secret
  586. multi-billionaire, but compared to cheap upstarts like Erdogan,
  587. Muhammed bin Sultan, Trump, Boris Johnson, Viktor Orban in Hungary,
  588. Modi in India, Putin is visibly a seasoned statesman.  He’s, by
  589. comparison, a classy, on-top-of-it guy.   He poisons traitors, sure,
  590. but he’s KGB, so they’re suppose to do that.  If you’re Russian,
  591. it’s actually fun to watch Putin joke about murder in public.  Also,
  592. if you’re Russian and you imagine yourself being Putin, and
  593. wondering, well, what would I do in his place — yeah.  They’d do
  594. what he does.  They’d have to get a little narrow-eyed and cold at
  595. heart, but hey, James Bond. Enough said.
  596.  
  597. Even the Central Asian gymnast mistress doesn’t bother them.  Why
  598. that chick isn’t world-famous, I’ll never know.  She’s like an
  599. Ivanka Trump who can twist herself into a pretzel. A more fantastic
  600. court-mistress even than Carla Bruni-Sarkozy, and that’s saying
  601. something.
  602.  
  603. ## [permalink #32](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post32) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 8 Jan 20 01:26_
  604.  
  605. So in MMXX I don’t think Russians are “depressed.”  If so, less
  606. depressed than normal for them.  They may be getting a little
  607. spooked about Siberia being on fire and  those springlike winters in
  608. Moscow, but since a lot of that is their fault, they’re especially
  609. motivated to lie about it.  After all, they don’t burn all that much
  610. carbon themselves, they just sell it to other people who burn it.
  611.  
  612. The world is remaking itself in their image, and after decades of
  613. abject moral, political, economic and military defeat they are a
  614. vanguard state in 02020.  If you know a lot about them, you can
  615. kinda outguess how things are likely to go in this decade -- or, at
  616. least, the beginning of it.
  617.  
  618. ## [permalink #33](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post33) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Administrivia - !Important! [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 8 Jan 20 05:44_
  619.  
  620. We provided the WRONG EMAIL for sending comments and questions!
  621. The correct email is
  622.  
  623. (((( inkwell at well.com ))))
  624. Shorter, easier to type, and it works!
  625.  
  626. Apologies to all who got bounce messages...
  627.  
  628. ## [permalink #34](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post34) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Brian Slesinsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 8 Jan 20 05:45_
  629.  
  630. > Via email from Brian Slesinksy:
  631. I'm wondering if anyone wants to comment on the state of the Maker
  632. community? We might have had the last bay area Maker Faire last
  633. year, though I stopped going a while ago since it seemed like I was
  634. seeing the same stuff. The shelves at Fry's are bare, even here in
  635. Silicon Valley. But online, everything seems fine? There are useful
  636. vendors, you can order lots of interesting parts, and there are
  637. plenty of hacks on Hackaday, and lots of educational material.
  638.  
  639. I just got into musical electronics last year and I'm personally
  640. having lots of fun. But it feels a bit like woodworking, kind of an
  641. eccentric hobby that some people are into but hardly world-changing.
  642.  
  643. Attempting to make just one thing myself also got me reflecting on
  644. our utter dependence on the global supply chain. You can unplug from
  645. social networks, sure, but where are you going to buy your stuff? If
  646. you make it yourself, where do you buy parts and tools? Not to
  647. mention outsourced services like laser cutting and PCB board
  648. manufacture. It's hardly "buy nothing" day; I'm ordering more stuff
  649. than ever.
  650.  
  651. People are down on world trade but I don't think anyone's really
  652. contemplated what it would be like to try to go it alone. A large
  653. nation with lots of manufacturing capability could maybe do it, if
  654. they're willing to do without on some things. Maybe China would
  655. manage it assuming Trump has convinced them to seriously try?
  656.  
  657. (Probably not.)
  658. The nationalistic mood doesn't seem much in touch with globalist
  659. reality?
  660.  
  661. ## [permalink #35](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post35) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Giorgos Georgiadis [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 8 Jan 20 05:52_
  662.  
  663. > Via email from Giorgos Georgiadis:
  664. I, for one, enjoyed the introduction. Depressing? Most definitely,
  665. but I can do "depressing": twenty teens showed me how. But it also
  666. offers clarity, and that's both a high-quality drug and a solid base
  667. for discussion.
  668.  
  669. What about institutions? Should we try to prop them up, like
  670. fortifications to help us weather the "political climate" change? Or
  671. should we let them crumble and build new ones in the midst of chaos?
  672.  
  673. (I left the term deliberately undefined. Could be
  674. benevolent-looking, like Temples of Knowledge AKA libraries,
  675. universities and the like, or
  676. oligarchy-targeted-by-oligarchy-for-subversion like parliamentary
  677. democracy, or anything in between or sideways.)
  678.  
  679. ## [permalink #36](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post36) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 8 Jan 20 06:48_
  680.  
  681. "News" isn't what it used to be.
  682.  
  683. The daily newspaper and end of day news broadcast were the limited
  684. and often ignored sources of news in my youth. Most people had no
  685. idea what was happening in the world. They were engaged in work or
  686. in various ludic endeavors - living their lives without much thought
  687. of the rest of the world. At the end of the day my father sprawled
  688. on the couch supposedly reading the Wall Street Journal, but he
  689. didn't read much before snoozing.
  690.  
  691. ## [permalink #37](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post37) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 8 Jan 20 06:49_
  692.  
  693. Mass media evolved and brought more of the world into our homes -
  694. the fifteen minute news recap at the end of the day extended to
  695. thirty minutes. We would glance at the newspapers and background the
  696. news broadcasts. We didn't think enough about the news to questions
  697. whether it was effectively vetted, whether it was biased, whether it
  698. was "fake."
  699.  
  700. ## [permalink #38](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post38) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 8 Jan 20 06:49_
  701.  
  702. Flash forward to my reality du jour in MMXX: flooded with
  703. personalized news feeds, not so much biased as tailored to my
  704. biases, as interpreted algorithmically by newsbots operated
  705. variously by Apple, Google, Facebook, et al.  24/7 news via the
  706. Internet and via cable news left (MSNBC), right (Fox), and center
  707. (arguably CNN, though if you're far enough right of center, CNN is
  708. on your left).
  709.  
  710. News is delivered in crazy-quilt stacks via Apple News or Google
  711. News - aggregators that deliver constantly-updated news feeds. And
  712. it's weird: the news stacks include in close proximity hard news of
  713. politics and disaster, op-eds tailored to the bot's interpretation
  714. of my opinion states, glamfest reports (e.g. the recent Golden
  715. Globes - what were they wearing?), crime reports, reporting on the
  716. latest Saturday Night Live (now apparently newsworthy), latest
  717. thinking about health and nutrition - subject to change from one
  718. study to another, food recipes,  news of climate emergency and
  719. environmental collapse, advice for entrepreneurs, business
  720. calculations, sports reports, market reports, superhero updates,
  721. streaming schedules, more politics, more and more politics...
  722.  
  723. ## [permalink #39](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post39) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 8 Jan 20 06:49_
  724.  
  725. It appears that many have cable news running nonstop in their homes,
  726. at least while they're awake, possibly while they're sleeping. The
  727. cable channels news channels aren't delivering news as we usually
  728. think of it, diverse reports of global happenings as you might hear
  729. from still-reliable NPR.  The present an endless stream of political
  730. updates and opinions, usually delivered by a moderator with 4-5
  731. pundits on call to provide echoes of opinions. While cable
  732. journalists may aspire to deliver real political news, in prime time
  733. the shows tend to be more opinion than news. Arguable propaganda -
  734. washing the brains of millions of people whose opinions are also
  735. reinforced by tailored news feeds and social media memes.  In the US
  736. and probably elsewhere, populations are politicized like never
  737. before.
  738.  
  739. It's a mess. Solutions are hard to come by.  Some of us who have
  740. been involved with the Internet throughout its evolution saw the
  741. potential danger in manipulation of the information ecosystem by
  742. unscrupulous actors, and we often advocated teaching digital
  743. literacy and critical thinking as an antidote to widespread
  744. misinformation and disinformation campaigns. So far as I know,
  745. that's never happened.
  746.  
  747. ## [permalink #40](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post40) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Kevin Welch [(kwelch)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 8 Jan 20 07:06_
  748.  
  749. I think an endless drumbeat of credulous skepticism as the only
  750. recipe to prevent getting fleeced in this world is behind a lot of
  751. people's inability to discern information from disinformation.
  752.  
  753. Intellectually milquetoast poobahs have spent the better part of a
  754. century telling people via non-sequitur allusions to such works as
  755. 1984, Brave New World, Fahrenheit 451, hell, even The Illuminatus
  756. Trilogy, that everything they're told from any source of authority
  757. is a lie, regardless of the actual evidence. It's the same credulous
  758. skepticism promoting such a bizarre internet phenomenon as Flat
  759. Earth. People in power say the Earth is round, and they never tell
  760. the truth, so it must be flat.
  761.  
  762. ## [permalink #41](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post41) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 8 Jan 20 07:47_
  763.  
  764. A "Message of Joy," posted 24 hours ago by Max Casacci, the lead
  765. guitarist of Turin's best-known rock band "Subsonica."  Things seem
  766. to be pretty lively in Max's digital recording studio, which has
  767. walls paved with screens the size of movie posters.
  768.  
  769. https://soundcloud.com/maxcasacci/messaggio-di-gioia
  770.  
  771. ## [permalink #42](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post42) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 8 Jan 20 08:34_
  772.  
  773. > everything they're told from any source of authority
  774. > is a lie, regardless of the actual evidence
  775. Tim Leary famously encouraged his followers, and anyone else who
  776. would listen, to "question authority."
  777. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Question_authority)
  778. The counterculture of the sixties and seventies was skeptical of
  779. traditional authority, but accepted "alternative facts" and
  780. theories, including conspiracy theories.  This thinking preceded and
  781. fed into the alt-right/alt-light movements and the current supposed
  782. "post-truth" political landscape.
  783.  
  784. At this point, who can you believe? Best to be skeptical of
  785. everything and have a well-tuned critical faculty. It's unfortunate
  786. that grifters have seized political power and popular attention, via
  787. methods for undermining institutional trust. But undermining that
  788. trust started a long time ago, it's just drifted from healthy to
  789. unhealthy skepticism.
  790.  
  791. ## [permalink #43](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post43) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Angie Coiro [(coiro)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 8 Jan 20 09:07_
  792.  
  793. Good questions from Brian Slesinksy. The makers' credos ("If you
  794. can't open it, you don't own it" is one example) posit them in
  795. defiance to throwaway culture and the massive machines that
  796. encourage and enable it.
  797.  
  798. It's overboard to say that to be a maker today is a revolutionary
  799. act, but there's at least a drop of truth there.
  800.  
  801. ## [permalink #44](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post44) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 8 Jan 20 10:03_
  802.  
  803. I agree that makers can be part of a revolution, along with co-ops.
  804.  
  805. Make me think of voluntary simplicity, which never quite became a
  806. movement:
  807. http://simplicitycollective.com/start-here/what-is-voluntary-simplicity-2  We need that kind of thinking now, more than ever.
  808.  
  809. ## [permalink #45](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post45) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Richard Lawler [(richardl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 8 Jan 20 19:16_
  810.  
  811. I'm involved with the local maker movement in Sebastopol, the former
  812. home of the former Make Magazine and former Maker Faire. It doesn't
  813. feel revolutionary. We help people fix their things (lamps usually).
  814.  
  815. We teach people how to use some new tech (laser cutters, CAD, CNC
  816. and microcontrollers) and old tech (jewelry making, welding and
  817. woodworking). If feels a lot like what local government used to
  818. provide as community enrichment at libraries and recreation centers
  819. before Prop 13. And big tech no longer wants anything to do with
  820. Maker. The code camp movement better watch their back.
  821.  
  822. ## [permalink #46](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post46) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Gary Gach [(ggg)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 8 Jan 20 19:49_
  823.  
  824. Are those who hastily rebrand these days "The Roaring Twenties"
  825. ill-advised? ( Remember how the original ended. ) How long does it
  826. take to brand a decade when one's in it?
  827.  
  828. Meanwhile, what shall we call the decade past?
  829.  
  830. Or are decades an entrenched formality superceded by digital time?
  831.  
  832. I remember the seismic shock in the business cycle when early Java
  833. issued an upgrade twice within the same quarter.  How long before
  834. the Singularity?  etc.
  835.  
  836. This year, I’ve observed the slow insinuation of AI into writing.
  837.  
  838. Whole articles are now being written and published by program.
  839.  
  840. (Probably ads too. Maybe also tv-series? ) And it's not just
  841. reading. Handling my correspondence for me, Google Mail offers me a
  842. small but nuanced thesaurus of choices with which to respond,
  843. automatically.
  844.  
  845. I can personally attest to the benefits of voluntary simplicity,
  846. Jon, to the degree I’ve embraced this in my own life. (I prepare my
  847. own meals. Driven a car for but three months in my adult life, San
  848. Francisco being walkable, and with great public transportation. No
  849. tv. See no need for a cell phone.  Is vegetarianism part of that
  850. too? ) And I know I’m not the only one. We recognize & respect each
  851. other.
  852.  
  853. Co-ops, in my book, are great, 'tho I've yet to be engaged in any,
  854. so can't speak personally. Meanwhile, I subscribe to Platform.Coop,
  855. which I find a great bunch of futurists. Here's their year in review
  856. [ https://platform.coop/blog/the-year-in-platform-cooperatives/](https://platform.coop/blog/the-year-in-platform-cooperatives/)
  857. And, along with your ever-buoyant, refreshing, eclectic, vital and
  858. needful annual notes in general, Bruce – thanks a bushel & a heap
  859. for the amazing music links. ( Do you maintain an online playlist,
  860. or channel to subscribe to? Or is that now a retro concept. )  Here
  861. are two note-bending, mind-opening renditions of a Gnossienne by
  862. Satie that might lend new meaning in our times to what was known
  863. "world music."  They nourish my aspiration to live in a world that,
  864. instead of being more and more a monoculture ( Satie as Muzak ), is
  865. as open to imagination and creative possibility as the clear blue
  866. sky is wide – bringing us closer together in our diversity –
  867. Van-Anh Vo
  868. [ https://youtu.be/nyUk4O5hrc4](https://youtu.be/nyUk4O5hrc4) [ 2011 ]
  869. & an even more simple rendition[ https://youtu.be/-WgLCn6VN-8](https://youtu.be/-WgLCn6VN-8) [ 2012
  870. ]
  871. ( would you call the camera position more of a close up ?
  872.  
  873. I believe the Russian call that "bigger" rather than closer. )
  874. &
  875. Arturo O'Farrill & The Afro Latin Jazz Orchestra
  876. https://youtu.be/QwzdYaP2x7k  [ 2013 ]
  877. ( Maybe your wife will ask, "What's that!"? )
  878. They're not from the past year – but the past decade – which, again,
  879. I'm still just starting to try to wrap my midget head around.  
  880.  
  881. ## [permalink #47](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post47) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 9 Jan 20 01:08_
  882.  
  883. So, on the subject of geopolitics of the 2020s, how do you
  884. figure out how things are likely to work during this decade?
  885.  
  886. Well, military theorists have been talking about "plutocratic
  887. insurgency" since 2011, but once you're reached today's condition of
  888. oligarchy, it's no longer an "insurgency," it's a genuine political
  889. arrangement which has to create new social norms after buying or
  890. hollowing out all the old ones.
  891.  
  892. So the most interesting new institutional innovation is what the
  893. Russians call the "curator" figure.  The world's foremost "curator"
  894. is the guy known as "Putin's Cook," Yevgeny Prigozhin.  The 2020s
  895. are pretty much at the feet of this guy.  He's doing great.
  896.  
  897. Prigozhin is a former Saint Peterburg gangster who swore fealty
  898. to Putin, early on -- he ran Putin's favorite restaurant and owned a
  899. Petersburg grocery chain.   Now Prigozhin supplies a lot of Russian
  900. army chow and has become a   state-supported mogul.
  901.  
  902. Also Prigozhin deputized to run all kinds of wildly damaging
  903. offshore operations.  He's got a private mercenary army called
  904. "Wagner" which has been very busy in Ukraine, Syria and Libya, as
  905. well as a cyberwar outfit called "Internet Research Agency" which
  906. employs hundreds of trolls to disrupt elections.  Along with other
  907. holdings.
  908.  
  909. Of course Prigozhin takes his orders directly from Putin, but
  910. he's never been in the Russian government and never will be.
  911.  
  912. There's no reason for Prigozhin to be in Putin's government, because
  913. the government is a stumbling block for oligarchic dominance.  A
  914. "curator" doesn't belong to the state, he is private and belongs to
  915. an oligarchy, and he's informally licensed to use huge sums of
  916. billionaire money to raise as much hell as possible, anywhere
  917. outside the nation-state's formal boundaries.
  918.  
  919. Also, if he's caught performing this global piracy by some
  920. other government, the government simply denies that they have
  921. anything to do with him, and tells them to go pound sand.
  922.  
  923. ## [permalink #48](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post48) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 9 Jan 20 01:08_
  924.  
  925. The Iranian general who just got blown up, Qassim Soleimani, is
  926. pretty much a picture-perfect "curator," except the Iranians put a
  927. uniform on him.  Other than that, he did everything Prigozhin did,
  928. in the same way, and even on the same battlefields with the same oil
  929. derricks.
  930.  
  931. Eric Prince of Blackwater aka Akademi, the brother of Trump
  932. Education Secretary Betsy Devos, is a "curator."  When Trump was
  933. trying to shake down the TV comedian who currently runs Ukraine,
  934. Giuliani had the "curator" offshored henchman role.
  935.  
  936. Oligarchs lack other good ways to get stuff done, because the
  937. normal mechanisms of governance belong to what they dismiss as the
  938. "deep state."  They are old-fashioned and too much trouble, which is
  939. why Trump can rub-out General Soleimani even though the USA at the
  940. moment has no Director of National Intelligence,  no Homeland
  941. Security Secretary, no head of Customs and Border Protection , no
  942. head of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, no State Department
  943. Under Secretary of Arms Control, and no Navy Secretary.  These
  944. officials were all in the way, and even though they were  linchpins
  945. of American global military-industrial supremacy, they're also,
  946. just, clutter in the 2020s.
  947.  
  948. ## [permalink #49](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post49) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 9 Jan 20 01:09_
  949.  
  950. The World Trade Organization is about to collapse because Trump
  951. won't appoint anybody to serve in it.  Trump prefers Oligarch
  952. trade-wars where the children of Chinese tech dynasties are
  953. kidnapped. In Oligarchy, you don't want tiresome negotiation through
  954. global bureaucracies: you want other billionaires to kiss the ring
  955. and bow the knee.
  956.  
  957. ## [permalink #50](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page02.html#post50) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 9 Jan 20 01:09_
  958.  
  959. "Curators" do a lot of the work that covert intelligence
  960. services used to do, but they're not covert, they're just
  961. privatized.  It's become difficult to hide spies in the 2020s,
  962. because there is so much casual, yet ubiquitous surveillance going
  963. on.  Everybody knows the names, ranks and faces of the spy-soldiers
  964. that Putin sent to poison people in London.  The USA's covert
  965. operations have been devastated, mostly by Chinese cyberwarriors who
  966. mopped up all the federal recruitment records.  So it's very hard to
  967. remain actually secret.  Instead, you have to use privatized
  968. cut-outs, and also, you just have to deny. You can get impeached for
  969. massive legal misbehavior; but then you just shrug and say, fine, so
  970. what?  Stonewall it.  Lie about everything all the time. Guerrillas in the mist.
  971.  
  972. ## [permalink #51](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post51) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 9 Jan 20 01:10_
  973.  
  974. "Curators" are illegal and even war-criminals, but if nobody
  975. can enforce the former laws, it becomes a realm of Machiavellian
  976. maneuver among the super-rich.  If you're a veteran of the New York
  977. real estate biz, the law is a series of suggestions.  New York real
  978. estate has been around a long time.  It's older than the USA.So modern "curators" are more like privateering warlords than
  979. spies or political operatives, but a basic geopolitical problem
  980. arises when they try to legitimize their activities and hold on to
  981. whatever they stole.  Nobody has set up any system to allow that
  982. yet, and privatized global marauding goes against the Westphalian
  983. Order.  Even if you conquer Ukraine, you can't get named "Lord
  984. Conqueror Duke of Ukraine."  Embarrassingly, you have to fake it
  985. indefinitely.
  986.  
  987. ## [permalink #52](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post52) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 9 Jan 20 01:10_
  988.  
  989. At the moment there's a big to-do in Libya as rival warlords
  990. are backed by the Turks and the Russians.  In theory, this ought to
  991. lead to de-facto offshore Ottoman and Czarist colonies in Africa, a
  992. source of oil and cheap labor, or whatever they imagine they are
  993. getting there.
  994.  
  995. The Libyans are so screwed-up by their Curse of Oil that they'd
  996. probably be better off as colonial slaves of the rapacious Turks and
  997. cruel Russians; at least they could get to the grocery store without
  998. being shot by snipers, and they could probably get some potatoes.
  999.  
  1000. However, even though Libya's getting sectioned off and
  1001. colonized by curators -- apparently -- the UN, NATO, the usual
  1002. power-payers, China even, they all say nothing about it.   Putin and
  1003. Erdogan confer privately about it, while everybody else looks in the
  1004. other direction.  Nobody else wants to risk conquering and pacifying
  1005. Libya.  They all figure, probably correctly, that it's a quagmire.  
  1006.  
  1007. So in MMXX, poor Libya is supposed to get pacified through the
  1008. actions of curator warlords, packs of hired mercenaries, and fleets
  1009. of killer drones.  Okay: assuming that somehow works, what will
  1010. Libya use for postage stamps?  What kind of money will they have?
  1011.  
  1012. What passports? Will Amazon do deliveries?   Are they stateless
  1013. Somalia with better-equipped white-guy marauders? What gives with
  1014. that?  It's so interesting.
  1015.  
  1016. ## [permalink #53](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post53) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 9 Jan 20 01:11_
  1017.  
  1018. Also, "curators" don't have to be huge; they can be a fast,
  1019. dinky two-man operation.  Carlos Ghosn, who is just a mere common
  1020. automobile millionaire, hired an ex Green-Beret and a Lebanese
  1021. militiaman to escape the Japanese rule of law and smuggle him off to
  1022. Lebanon.  And that worked -- he got smuggled away in a pirate chest,
  1023. yo-ho-ho.  
  1024.  
  1025. Millionaires didn't used to do brazen stuff like that, because
  1026. they were afraid of the international order.  No big reason to fret
  1027. about that now.
  1028.  
  1029. ## [permalink #54](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post54) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 9 Jan 20 11:41_
  1030.  
  1031. In this new reality of "all power to the billionaire oligarchs,"
  1032. Donald Trump's ascendance seems to fit, but he's got a problem.
  1033.  
  1034. You can see that he's a wild bull, because he's so intimate with
  1035. bullshit, but his supporters LIKE having a wild bull tearing through
  1036. the house. The didn't like the decor, they wanted an excuse to
  1037. redecorate. Tear it apart, and we'll rebuild it.
  1038.  
  1039. But what happens when he's wrecked the refrigerator, uprooted the
  1040. plumbing, torn through the walls, broken all the windows? He's
  1041. taking out the decor you didn't like, but he's tearing through
  1042. everything else. He's destroying the stuff you still want and need.
  1043.  
  1044. You can look the other way, but sooner or later the food's spoiling
  1045. and the rain's getting in.
  1046.  
  1047. To hold power, a boss bull like Trump has to do one thing: he has to
  1048. make his people feel safe.  The problem with this wild bull is that
  1049. he's goring everone and everything in sight.  He demands loyalty but
  1050. he's never loyal.
  1051.  
  1052. Sooner or later, he's gonna be Lonesome Rhodes. It just seems
  1053. inevitable. The best teflon coating wears away, sooner or later.
  1054.  
  1055. (See[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Face_in_the_Crowd_(film](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Face_in_the_Crowd_(film)) if you
  1056. don't get that reference.)
  1057.  
  1058. ## [permalink #55](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post55) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Angie Coiro [(coiro)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 9 Jan 20 11:56_
  1059.  
  1060. Lonesome Rhodes needed that one person willing to turn the
  1061. microphone up. I don't know if anyone around Trump is willing to be
  1062. that person.
  1063.  
  1064. ## [permalink #56](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post56) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Kevin Welch [(kwelch)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 9 Jan 20 12:05_
  1065.  
  1066. The microphone has been turned up plenty of times around Trump, see
  1067. the infamous Access Hollywood tape. The problem is it's never been
  1068. turned up on anything that was a deal-breaker for his base.
  1069.  
  1070. Although, I've grown so cynical and morbidly impressed with his
  1071. base's ability to resolve their cognitive dissonance around the man
  1072. that I truly think Trump could get hot-mic'ed saying that he's
  1073. secretly handing America over to communist antifa Muslim atheists
  1074. and his followers would applaud this brilliant 4-D chess move that
  1075. owns the libs, somehow...
  1076.  
  1077. ## [permalink #57](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post57) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 9 Jan 20 17:11_
  1078.  
  1079. I'm sure there's a line, even for his followers. But the real
  1080. question is what it will take for the Senate and Justice Department,
  1081. currently in his pocket, to say enough is enough.
  1082.  
  1083. ## [permalink #58](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post58) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 9 Jan 20 17:18_
  1084.  
  1085. Meanwhile, we should yank the trunk of the elephant in the room:
  1086. climate change.
  1087.  
  1088. "Is it wrong to be hopeful about climate change?"
  1089. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200109-is-it-wrong-to-be-hopeful-about-cl
  1090. [imate-change](https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200109-is-it-wrong-to-be-hopeful-about-climate-change)
  1091. "No individual will bend the emissions curve alone. No writer,
  1092. modeling team, no forest firefighter, no environmental lawyer will
  1093. carry the day. But if you’re looking for hope, there might be a
  1094. space in constructing something together – in responsive hope. No
  1095. single coral restoration programme will heal the wounds inflicted on
  1096. reefs around the world, but perhaps networks offer a way forward.
  1097.  
  1098. That collective goal, and the space of uncertainty in that
  1099. 'perhaps,' is our hope."  
  1100.  
  1101. ## [permalink #59](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post59) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Andrew Alden [(alden)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 9 Jan 20 19:04_
  1102.  
  1103. When it comes to climate, we're all Lilliputians, but together we can lasso
  1104. Gulliver.
  1105.  
  1106. ## [permalink #60](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post60) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Fri 10 Jan 20 02:55_
  1107.  
  1108. > Via email from Brian Slesinksy:
  1109. "I'm wondering if anyone wants to comment on the state of the Maker
  1110. community? We might have had the last bay area Maker Faire last
  1111. year, though I stopped going a while ago since it seemed like I was
  1112. seeing the same stuff."
  1113.  
  1114. This subject of the Maker Movement is of keen interest to me
  1115. personally, because I was a columnist for MAKE magazine and curator
  1116. of the "Casa Jasmina" maker house-of-the-future in Turin.
  1117.  
  1118. ## [permalink #61](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post61) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Fri 10 Jan 20 02:56_
  1119.  
  1120. "Movements," as opposed to institutions, tend to go somewhere, and
  1121. then they stop.  So "Making" was an eclectic tumbleweed of a lot of
  1122. moving novelties that I enjoyed learning about, such as Web 2.0,
  1123. open source hard ware, 3Dprinting, artisanal electronics,
  1124. shareables, fabrication labs, public hacker events, sneaking weird
  1125. cyberpunk DIY personal projects into dead Italian factories, and
  1126. even more!
  1127.  
  1128. I'm happy I was involved with that.  It was truly illuminating, and
  1129. worth every minute.  Thanks to Making, I'm much more at ease with
  1130. topics and activities that would likely have been forever closed to
  1131. me as a career novelist.   I know a lot more about material culture
  1132. now, and I'm even far more personally handy than I once was.
  1133.  
  1134. However, fifteen years is a rather long time for any "movement."
  1135.  
  1136. Nobody talks about "Web 2.0" any more; the Internet was famously
  1137. "built with O'Reilly books," but Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon,
  1138. Microsoft, Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent, those vast post-Internet
  1139. entities are not built with O'Reilly books, and O'Reilly was the
  1140. source of Make, the way Whole Earth was the source of the WELL.
  1141.  
  1142.  
  1143. ## [permalink #62](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post62) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Fri 10 Jan 20 02:58_
  1144.  
  1145. Even the Maker Movement had to meet some bills,  it couldn't
  1146. run just on raw joy and sweat equity.  For Make that was the
  1147. magazine, selling some tools and tie-ins, and throwing big,
  1148. profitable public events quietly underwritten by tech companies.
  1149.  
  1150. Eventually they suffered a cash crunch when their discreet alliance
  1151. with the corporations broke down.
  1152.  
  1153. In MMXX, if you're a tech company enamored with making, you
  1154. just build your own fab-lab in the basement and give it to the
  1155. engineers as a playroom/R&D lab.  You don't need hand-holding from
  1156. MAKE magazine columnists.
  1157.  
  1158. https://www.architecturaldigest.com/story/this-monogram-appliance-began-as-a-b
  1159. [right-idea-in-a-makerspace](https://www.architecturaldigest.com/story/this-monogram-appliance-began-as-a-bright-idea-in-a-makerspace)
  1160.  
  1161. These big-time sponsors figured out that they could have
  1162. trained professionals tinkering.  They don't need a massive popular
  1163. movement of random tinkerers tinkering -- that doesn't convey to
  1164. them any genuine research and development benefit.  Nobody tinkers
  1165. up a functional and legal mass-market stove or refrigerator.  
  1166. Makers are hobbyists and popular-mechanics people, they mostly make
  1167. toys, games, collectibles, costumes, and Burner-style FX
  1168. knick-knacks that approach technology-art, device art, and machine
  1169. art.  Activities dear to my heart, but they're not heavy industry
  1170. and they rarely scale.
  1171.  
  1172. ## [permalink #63](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post63) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Fri 10 Jan 20 02:58_
  1173.  
  1174. Then there's the experience of the "Makers" themselves -- as
  1175. in, what are accomplishing here, what is your own end goal?  Is this
  1176. something you do on the weekends, like building ships in a bottle,
  1177. or are you a designer/engineer light-manufacturer who is at it all
  1178. day?  If you're a professional craftsperson, you'll need to
  1179. manufacture instead of tinkering --- because"real artists ship."
  1180. You want inventory, patrons, a customer base, maybe a brick and
  1181. mortar shop -- maybe you use some digital tools, but you're a
  1182. self-employed skilled laborer, and good luck with it.
  1183.  
  1184. If you don't ship any product, and you're a professional
  1185. tinkerer, then you're actually into "Makertainment" rather than
  1186. making.  You want to record and sell your process as a form of
  1187. monetizable performance-art.
  1188.  
  1189. ## [permalink #64](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post64) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Fri 10 Jan 20 02:59_
  1190.  
  1191. Maker-entertainment is quite a different animal than the "Maker
  1192. Movement," because there's a lot more money and fame in it.  This is
  1193. Adam Savage pulling down Starbucks sponsorship money for harnessing
  1194. an aeolopile gizmo with liquid nitrogen.
  1195.  
  1196. https://youtu.be/aNTq7qOAFeg
  1197.  
  1198. Okay, that monetizable Youtube stunt is super-entertaining if
  1199. you ask me, but it's not "making," even though Adam shows you
  1200. exactly how he makes it.  It's a paid commercial for Starbucks by
  1201. other means, and also, if you yourself screw around with liquid
  1202. nitrogen, you're gonna get frostbite scars.  Adam, by contrast, is a
  1203. globe-trotting veteran TV star with numerous employees.
  1204.  
  1205. Here in MMXX, this is the post-Maker state of the art here:
  1206. Adam Savage, pro entertainer and special FX dude. I have to say I
  1207. learn a lot from him, and I actually pay money to be a member of
  1208. "Tested."
  1209.  
  1210. It doesn't much surprise me that the show-biz aspects of Making
  1211. would turn into show-biz.  That was always the most Californian
  1212. thing about it.
  1213.  
  1214. ## [permalink #65](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post65) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Fri 10 Jan 20 03:02_
  1215.  
  1216. As for our  own"Maker House of the Future" in Turin, man, that
  1217. was super.  So much fun.   You would not believe the free, adulatory
  1218. publicity we reaped for that, especially my spouse,  "The Jasmina of
  1219. Casa Jasmina," the feminist maven of the "Internet of Women Things."
  1220.  
  1221. Jasmina became famous in Turin,  almost a mythical figure, because
  1222. she was the hostess of this avant-garde local house "Casa Jasmina."
  1223.  
  1224. That house was the only aspect of the Via Egeo ex-factory
  1225. complex that was much frequented by Italian women.  We had female
  1226. astronauts and female museum curators in there.  The female mayor
  1227. dropped by.  Some great parties, too.  All of the Torino Great and
  1228. Good were trying to sit on our squeaky plywood furniture.  It went
  1229. on for years!
  1230.  
  1231. Today that factory complex is civilizing, normalizing, almost
  1232. gentrifying.  Via Egeo 16 used to be more or less a squat that
  1233. everybody ignored, but it got extensively renovated and is earning
  1234. money, so it makes no legal sense to have a place that is basically
  1235. a weird hotel room inside the middle of a design-office space.  The
  1236. legal contradictions of trying to do too much at once got in our
  1237. way, and also, Turin is getting rather sensitive about the
  1238. out-of-control AirBnB thing.  So, in Jan 15, Casa Jasmina ceases to
  1239. exist.
  1240.  
  1241. A clean exit is never that bad a fate for any act of futurism.
  1242.  
  1243. Casa Jasmina was becoming a showplace of aging Maker gizmos from
  1244. five years ago.  Also, Via Egeo still has a so-called "Fab Lab" down
  1245. in its basement, but I'm not sure why they need that MIT
  1246. nomenclature in 2020.  They could just buy the robots, routers,
  1247. laser-cutters, 3DPrinters, for they've become pretty standard.
  1248.  
  1249. ## [permalink #66](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post66) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Fri 10 Jan 20 03:03_
  1250.  
  1251. At "Casa Jasmina" we never made any profit, because we also had
  1252. a covert alliance with a corporation.  In our case, it was the
  1253. open-source hardware outfit "Arduino," with CEO Massimo Banzi as our
  1254. maestro, theorist and gray eminence.  Like a lot of hobby startups
  1255. Arduino had some rough times, but they've pulled through, and at CES
  1256. in Vegas this year, out came the first mainstream industrial Arduino
  1257. product, the "Arduino Portenta."
  1258.  
  1259. https://blog.arduino.cc/2020/01/07/arduino-goes-pro-at-ces-2020/
  1260. The "Portenta" is not a maker-style "innovation platform," it's an
  1261. open-source heavy-duty industrial device, and why not?  I dunno if
  1262. it'll sell, but in terms of where the maker movement went as it
  1263. developed with the years, that makes sense to me.  You "innovate,"
  1264. and you either write down the experiment and close the lab, or else
  1265. it turns into something commonplace that is no longer "innovative."
  1266. That's what the calendar is all about. Don't cry if it's gone,
  1267. rejoice that it was ever there.
  1268.  
  1269. ## [permalink #67](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post67) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Fri 10 Jan 20 06:53_
  1270.  
  1271. "Casa Jasmina" is over, but in the meantime, Internet-of-Things
  1272. industry booster Stacey Higginbotham says today that the entire idea
  1273. of a "smart home" has to be abandoned.  If they're run in the
  1274. surveillance-marketing fashion that they are today, no sane person
  1275. ought to trust one.
  1276.  
  1277. https://mailchi.mp/iotpodcast/stacey-on-iot-ces-madness?e=10392a4747
  1278. *Sometimes it's better to pleasantly waste some time on cool Maker
  1279. hobbies than it is to toss billions of dollars in VC money out the
  1280. window.
  1281.  
  1282. ## [permalink #68](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post68) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Fri 10 Jan 20 08:27_
  1283.  
  1284. I was never a committed maker, though I had connections to Make
  1285. Magazine and was part of an installation, at the first Austin Maker
  1286. Faire, on the "DIY house of the future." Mostly smoke and mirrors,
  1287. that installation had nothing to do with the Internet of Things
  1288. smart home/wired home mythology. It was focused more on making than
  1289. information systems: with advances in building technologies and
  1290. materials, we could have user-configurable homes, flexible modular
  1291. structures. Art generated from resident brainwaves. Consoles for
  1292. user-configured electronic murals and music.  Movable walls and
  1293. configurable rooms.
  1294.  
  1295. But I was more drawn to the culture than to the practice of making,
  1296. which had its beginnings with Whole Earth ("access to tools and
  1297. ideas"). The Whole Earth project was my most compelling influence as
  1298. an adult. It brought me here, to the WELL, and it encouraged my
  1299. eclectic, generalist mindset. I miss the Whole Earth/Point
  1300. Foundation organization and its many outputs, but I see the "tools"
  1301. aspect reflected in maker culture. We need a project to manifest,
  1302. again, the spirit of self-directed experimentation and adventure. A
  1303. framework for the curious, discarding passive consumerism for active
  1304. tinkering.
  1305.  
  1306. Bruce also mentioned Stacey Higginbotham's piece rightly
  1307. acknowledging that much of the "Internet of Things" framework has
  1308. been out of whack. What was missing - a strategic understanding of
  1309. what users would want in a smart home, vs a bunch of gadgets wired
  1310. together without a clear overriding concept of the value of that
  1311. integration. I like that I can control my thermostat from my smart
  1312. phone, but I don't need my thermostat to talk to my refrigerator or
  1313. my stove. It would be more useful if my home could gather data about
  1314. the environment and manage energy use based on some set of
  1315. user-guided parameters, and do that with complete security and
  1316. trust.  Also Pliny Fisk and I were talking years ago about building
  1317. just that kind of home, and networking it with the neighborhood, so
  1318. that there would be cooperative targeting of energy goals, and forms
  1319. of sharing so far undefined.  There could be a gamification aspect,
  1320. as well. As a by-product, you would have a more robust relationship
  1321. with your neighbors.  I don't see that happening anywhere, at least
  1322. not yet.
  1323.  
  1324. My last post mentioned climate change, and I'll repeat part of the
  1325. bit I quoted from a BBC article: "... if you’re looking for hope,
  1326. there might be a
  1327. space in constructing something together – in responsive hope. No
  1328. single coral restoration programme will heal the wounds inflicted on
  1329. reefs around the world, but perhaps networks offer a way forward."
  1330.  
  1331. Maybe we could deploy maker energy and IoT innovation, and build
  1332. popular networks of response to the crisis. I say popular as
  1333. distinct from government: it's clear that world governments are
  1334. failing to respond, so it's up to the rest of us to address the
  1335. problem.
  1336.  
  1337. ## [permalink #69](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post69) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Fox [(brucefox)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sat 11 Jan 20 16:31_
  1338.  
  1339. Hi Folks,  Some newish things coming up in the last couple of weeks:
  1340. The Americans know who you are. The Americans listen to what you
  1341. say.  The Americans know where you are.  The Americans can smite you
  1342. from afar with no warning.  These are characteristics that only used
  1343. to be ascribed to the gods.  The Americans are doing these things
  1344. (for good or ill) on a regular basis in this last decade and pretty
  1345. much no one else in the world can put the combination together.
  1346.  
  1347. But, like the gods of old, the leadership doesn't seem to have the
  1348. best outcomes for mankind as the central goal.  
  1349.  
  1350. And the Iranians, trusting in their god, shot off what must have
  1351. been the entire year's budget for ballistic missiles in one go, with
  1352. a 26% failure rate and managed to not actually hurt anyone.  So some
  1353. anti-aircraft unit got "buck fever" and took out an airliner (oh
  1354. praise allah).  These nitwits, warned buy their generals to shut
  1355. down civil aviation for the hostilities went for the money and kept
  1356. the airport open.  I don't like or support Mr. T but it is clear
  1357. there are dimmer bulbs in the leadership of the world.
  1358.  
  1359. So I wonder, will the next general of the Quds force want to be
  1360. out and about rallying the militias of the middle east when he knows
  1361. the Americans know who he is, listen to his every radiated
  1362. conversation, know his location, and can center punch his moving car
  1363. with a 50 Kg missile pulling the trigger half the world away?
  1364.  
  1365. ## [permalink #70](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post70) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sat 11 Jan 20 23:50_
  1366.  
  1367. Speaking of artists who can make unlikely contraptions in their
  1368. garage, the San Francisco Museum of Modern Art is having a
  1369. retrospective show of the technology art work of Rafael
  1370. Lozano-Hemmer.
  1371.  
  1372. He is definitely one of the most advanced and capable tech-artists
  1373. of this century. If you ever want to light up an entire city with
  1374. interactive lasers, Rafael is your guy.
  1375.  
  1376. https://www.wired.com/beyond-the-beyond/2020/01/rafael-lozano-hemmer-san-franc
  1377. [isco-moma/](https://www.wired.com/beyond-the-beyond/2020/01/rafael-lozano-hemmer-san-francisco-moma/)
  1378. He's also the only artist I know who is Mexican-Canadian, which
  1379. seems like a really cool thing to be when you think about it.
  1380.  
  1381. ## [permalink #71](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post71) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 12 Jan 20 00:13_
  1382.  
  1383. Here’s a nice retrospective of “Electronic Dance Music” in the last
  1384. decade.  You’ll note that EDM has some inherent youth appeal because
  1385. your Boomer parents don’t like it, but also it’s the only form of
  1386. pop music production that seems to be technically advancing.
  1387.  
  1388. Nobody’s done anything new or remarkable with electric guitars in
  1389. quite a while — they have become as stable as the theremin, which,
  1390. in the year MMXX, is one hundred years old.  Mankind has had an
  1391. entire ecentury of electronic music….
  1392.  
  1393. https://pitchfork.com/features/article/2010s-reverberations-of-edm-skrillex-ze
  1394. [dd/](https://pitchfork.com/features/article/2010s-reverberations-of-edm-skrillex-zedd/)
  1395. EDM has got new methods of democratized production, with YouTube
  1396. tutorials, Ableton plug-ins, and sample packs you can buy on line.
  1397.  
  1398. And then, if you’re a big draw and you’ve gotten to the arena stage,
  1399. you can wire up a bunch of LED billboards and put on a garish
  1400. multimedia show that’s basically a traveling theme-park.  And that’s
  1401. monetizable!  Wow!
  1402.  
  1403. “Whatever happens to musicians will happen to everybody,” and
  1404. really, the ruthless punishment these artists absorb, while
  1405. continuing somehow to survive and emit more or less coherent noises,
  1406. it just astonishes me.  Symphony orchestras and opera still somehow
  1407. exist in our world, next to these musical EDM entrepreneurs who
  1408. squeak by like self-employed circuit-bending crafts people from the
  1409. Maker Movement.
  1410.  
  1411. ## [permalink #72](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post72) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 12 Jan 20 03:06_
  1412.  
  1413. *Okay, maybe it was a bit cruel of me to claim that the guitar is as
  1414. stable as the theremin, because of course you can plug grandpa's
  1415. electric guitar into an FX box that is basically an EDM rig.
  1416.  
  1417. https://neuraldsp.com/quad-cortex
  1418. *Lookah all the knobs and buttons on that! "Quad Cortex is the most
  1419. powerful floor modeler on the planet. With 2GHz of dedicated DSP
  1420. from its Quad-Core SHARC® architecture, this ludicrous amount of
  1421. processing capacity provides limitless sound design possibilities."
  1422.  
  1423. ## [permalink #73](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post73) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 12 Jan 20 03:08_
  1424.  
  1425. <scribbled by bruces Sun 12 Jan 20 03:08>
  1426.  
  1427. ## [permalink #74](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post74) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Gary Gach [(ggg)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 12 Jan 20 07:11_
  1428.  
  1429. <70> If I may pause for a moment on the San Francisco connection
  1430. here – it makes sense that SF MOMA is presenting this, rather than,
  1431. say, San Jose Museum of Art, now that the two cities have made an
  1432. historic handshake: Silicon Valley keeps the hardware, San Francisco
  1433. explores the software. It's a leap to say that rock&roll lightshows
  1434. of the '60s have evolved and transformed, but the fact is light is
  1435. becoming an element in public spaces here.  
  1436. No flying billboards yet, as from out of Blade Runner. It's still
  1437. all noncommercial and arty. Salesforce Tower has a different "movie"
  1438. that plays in its peak every night, barely recognizable images taken
  1439. from daily life transformed into shifting shapes and color form. The
  1440. Bay Bridge is also a nightly lightshow of sorts – thanks to an
  1441. outfit called Illuminate.org.
  1442.  
  1443. Their latest, in Grace Cathedral, sold out for 2019 the moment it
  1444. was announced: a projector of 300,000 lumens has been hoisted up and
  1445. fastened into the flying buttresses to create a 100-foot curtain of
  1446. shifting light and color, in a space beside the interfaith chapel,
  1447. where the labyrinth sits, in a 15-minute composition of music and
  1448. light.
  1449.  
  1450. https://gracecathedral.org/events/grace-light/
  1451.  
  1452. ## [permalink #75](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page03.html#post75) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 12 Jan 20 07:39_
  1453.  
  1454. This talk about lightshows and projections makes me think of Luke
  1455. Savisky's "Eye of Texas" projection on New Year's Eve 2006 in
  1456. Austin:[ https://www.austinchronicle.com/arts/2008-02-08/589099/](https://www.austinchronicle.com/arts/2008-02-08/589099/) Luke
  1457. (https://lukesavisky.com/) has always been an ambitious and creative
  1458. video artist. Ahead of his time - he was doing this sort of thing
  1459. back in the 90s. The projections just kept getting larger.
  1460.  
  1461. Also around 2005-2006, while working with the Digital Convergence
  1462. Initiative here in Austin, I was engaged in speculative converations
  1463. with Kim Smith, who was looking ahead of the curve with flat screen
  1464. development. Kim saw the potential to have flat screens everywhere,
  1465. including massive displays. Prescient - I see screens everywhere,
  1466. some scaled to immensity.
  1467.  
  1468. Diverse shadows on our 21st century cave walls... What will the
  1469. 2020s bring? More light, less shadow?
  1470.  
  1471. ## [permalink #76](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post76) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 12 Jan 20 08:38_
  1472.  
  1473. We bloggers (or webloggers) around the turn of the 21st century
  1474. argued that our unfiltered and diverse voices would yield a better
  1475. perspective on truth, surfacing stories and details that mainstream
  1476. media would inherently miss.  Some of us had been trained as
  1477. journalists and advocated teaching journalistic process and ethics
  1478. to bloggers.  The Internet would bring the democratization of
  1479. knowledge, etc.  
  1480. Utopian visions of the future of the Internet always looked on the
  1481. shiny side and failed to consider the potential for wicked dark
  1482. clouds to form.  In fact blogs and social media were ideal petri
  1483. dishes for viral growth of malevolent propaganda.  And with the
  1484. mainstreaming of Internet access, access spread to populations not
  1485. known for critical thinking and discretion. Our efforts had evolved
  1486. an ecosystem for distribution of weaponized memes. This only sunk in
  1487. when Donald Trump, a grifter know for his Twitter presence and
  1488. cultivation of conspiracy theories, was elected President in 2016.
  1489.  
  1490. Since then he's been aggressively constructing false narratives
  1491. while taking power (and money) and sharing with affiliated cohorts,
  1492. undermining democratic intention and the rule of law.
  1493.  
  1494. ## [permalink #77](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post77) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 12 Jan 20 08:38_
  1495.  
  1496. As Bruce said earlier, Trump's ascendance reflects a global trend, a
  1497. reaction to globalism, to the sense of eroding borders that is
  1498. attributable somewhat to the evolution of the Internet. A backlash,
  1499. leveraged by wealthy opportunists and authoritarian bullies.
  1500.  
  1501. That's one view, anyway. But the world is still spinning, artists
  1502. are still creating, makers are still making, opposition is
  1503. percolating, people (in the US, at least) still have jobs, inner
  1504. cities appear to be thriving, suburban dads are still mowing their
  1505. weekend lawns, retirees are cruising and watching their investments
  1506. appreciate... the world is full of contradictions.
  1507.  
  1508. ## [permalink #78](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post78) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 12 Jan 20 08:39_
  1509.  
  1510. Half of America is fearing the worst, the other half feels safe and
  1511. secure with Mad King Orange's persistent sales pitch. How long will
  1512. they apply snake oil to their various wounds before they realize
  1513. it's not working, they're not secure or safe. In fact a storm is
  1514. coming, forecast by science, ignored by a faction more concerned
  1515. with short-term profit than long-term survival.  The mayor of Amity
  1516. Island ignores the malevolent shark approaching.
  1517.  
  1518. ## [permalink #79](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post79) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 12 Jan 20 08:48_
  1519.  
  1520. What to do in MMXX? This is a critical time, we have to act on
  1521. climate change mitigation now, though now might be so late that we
  1522. have to focus on adaptation as well.  As individuals we can find
  1523. ways to reduce our carbon footprints, but individual action isn't
  1524. enough.  We need acknowledgement of the problem and urgent action to
  1525. curb emissions at government/policy levels, and within corporations.
  1526.  
  1527. We must vote for candidates who grasp the problem and are committed
  1528. to the challenge.  If you march in the streets, focus on addressing
  1529. climate change as your cause.
  1530.  
  1531. In his 100th Viridian Note, Bruce wrote:
  1532. "There are three basic activities we Viridians can fruitfully
  1533. pursue: we can create new concepts, we can spread ideas, and we can
  1534. be a moral force by example.
  1535.  
  1536. "Being small and diffuse is a tactical advantage for those three
  1537. activities. We can never expect to rule the planet by Papal decree,
  1538. but we're by no means without potential influence. Small diffuse
  1539. groups get quite a lot done in the world.
  1540.  
  1541. "If we Viridians successfully affect the course of events, it won't
  1542. be by lobbying, staging elections, shipping products, or passing
  1543. laws. It'll be by making a new world seem plausible, by becoming
  1544. early adapters, and by the Vaclav Havel method of publicly "living
  1545. in truth."
  1546.  
  1547. "Becoming an effective early adapter means finding new things and
  1548. processes, and making them modish. It's about cause celebres,
  1549. theatricality, publicity stunts, and hype.
  1550.  
  1551. "Creating buzz is something at which we Viridians should excel.
  1552.  
  1553. Besides, it's fun."
  1554.  
  1555. http://www.viridiandesign.org/notes/76-100/00100.html
  1556.  
  1557. ## [permalink #80](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post80) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Justin Pickard [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 12 Jan 20 08:56_
  1558.  
  1559. > Via email from Justin Pickard:
  1560. In <inkwell.vue.507.5>, Bruce mentions that neither Estonia nor
  1561. Dubai are, perhaps, quite as redolent of the future as they once
  1562. were. With this overarching sense of clumping or convergence, that
  1563. the differences between individual countries' fates are a matter of
  1564. flavour or degree, rather than anything more fundamental, I wonder
  1565. if a country-by-country weather forecast is the most helpful way to
  1566. be slicing things.
  1567.  
  1568. With that in mind, are there any smaller places (cities, landscapes,
  1569. retail parks, UNESCO world heritage sites, whatever) that feel like
  1570. particularly good points of reference, in figuring out the shape of
  1571. things to come? What about people? Any individuals we should be
  1572. keeping an eye on, or who aren't getting the attention they deserve?
  1573.  
  1574. And how about those things that overspill or ignore the borders of
  1575. the modern nation-state?
  1576.  
  1577. ## [permalink #81](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post81) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Brian Slesinsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 12 Jan 20 08:58_
  1578.  
  1579. > Via email from Brian Slesinsky:
  1580. Besides show-biz, it seems like the other way for makers to ship is
  1581. using Kickstarter? Then you really need to figure out how to
  1582. manufacture stuff. It seems like a lot of Kickstarter campaigns fail
  1583. at various stages. They can fail up front by raising money, or raise
  1584. the money and then discover manufacturing is harder than they
  1585. thought and fail to ship. Or sometimes they do eventually manage to
  1586. ship, but months or years after they said they would.
  1587.  
  1588. Seems like if you succeed then you've started a small business,
  1589. which is great if that's the business you want to be in.
  1590.  
  1591. As a retired tinkerer I was thinking about what my deliverable would
  1592. be, and since I'm a software guy who's dabbling in hardware, I think
  1593. my shippable is a video and a recipe. So, I'm thinking about some
  1594. kid who watches the video and wants to build the thing for cheap.
  1595.  
  1596. What tools do they need, what parts do they buy? I could buy fancy
  1597. equipment for myself, but I'm not going to if it limits the audience
  1598. for my recipe. Downloading a pattern and ordering something cheap
  1599. from a laser-cutting service seems pretty doable, along with buying
  1600. some parts at Home Depot. There are services where you can have a
  1601. PCB board made, but I'll want to make sure the soldering is easy to
  1602. do with a cheap soldering iron and basic skills, or avoid it
  1603. altogether if there's a way.
  1604.  
  1605. If it's popular, maybe one of the musical electronics companies will
  1606. have someone in Shenzhen manufacture a nicer copy of it and then you
  1607. won't need to build it yourself anymore.
  1608.  
  1609. I'm paying some attention to the computer keyboard enthusiasts, who
  1610. pay surprising amounts of money to have a computer keyboard made
  1611. just the way they like it. (Or maybe to make videos with keyboards
  1612. in them? Hard to tell.) The keyswitches are made by a handful of
  1613. companies and there are tiny vendors who apparently buy parts in
  1614. bulk and sell them in smaller quantities, or assemble a keyboard if
  1615. you're willing to pay. I need to buy keyswitches too, so I'm glad
  1616. they exist.
  1617.  
  1618. This all seems like rather consumer-oriented behavior? It's what you
  1619. do when you can't find exactly what you want on Amazon and you're
  1620. enough of an enthusiast that you won't settle for what's out there.
  1621.  
  1622. The companies aligned with this behavior sell parts and services, so
  1623. you're still buying stuff, just different stuff.
  1624.  
  1625. It seems like show-biz and making stuff aren't entirely distinct?
  1626.  
  1627. People who watch cooking shows do cook themselves sometimes. This
  1628. might be more the lighter side of education. YouTube seems to be how
  1629. people learn things nowadays, if they just want to do it and not get
  1630. credentials proving you learned it.
  1631.  
  1632. Maybe education and show-biz are merging a bit? You have the
  1633. theoretical side where they teach stuff that there's no way you're
  1634. going to do yourself but is conceptually interesting, and then
  1635. there's the more practical side.
  1636.  
  1637. ## [permalink #82](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post82) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Brian Slesinsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 12 Jan 20 08:59_
  1638.  
  1639. > Via email from Brian Slesinsky:
  1640. Regarding the Internet of Things, it seems like a large subset is
  1641. the Internet of Cameras?
  1642.  
  1643. At our house it is mostly my wife who buys the cameras. We have
  1644. cameras outside pointed at the front porch where the packages get
  1645. dropped because we once had a package stolen. It's reassuring when
  1646. we're traveling. Also, we have a dash-cam because the other drivers
  1647. are crazy, though the dash-cam isn't on much and doesn't seem to be
  1648. effective for much of anything. A lot of this seems to be about
  1649. which side of the camera you're on, if it's pointed at someone else
  1650. you feel better.
  1651.  
  1652. I did buy a camera for my mother in the form of a Google Nest Hub
  1653. Max. This was strictly for easier video chat and it does the job. We
  1654. chat every morning, it's great. It's a nice photo frame too. But
  1655. getting through the install up to the point where we could video
  1656. chat was honestly scary for her. Particularly the part where it
  1657. insisted on learning to recognize her voice. It's like, a normal
  1658. phone doesn't insist on this, so why now?
  1659.  
  1660. But suppose it didn't need to be trained? It feels like this is a
  1661. matter of product design and technology getting a little bit better.
  1662.  
  1663. She is happy with the switch. You turn it off and it says
  1664. "microphone and camera are off!" This is just what people want.
  1665.  
  1666. Geeks may want a physical shutter or verifiable open source
  1667. binaries, but if your product says "microphone and camera are off"
  1668. in an authoritative voice, I think a lot of people will go for it.
  1669.  
  1670. ## [permalink #83](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post83) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Sigmundur Halldorsson [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 12 Jan 20 09:00_
  1671.  
  1672. > Via email from Sigmundur Halldorsson:
  1673. One of  the most remarkable TV series of 2019 was HBO's Chernobyl -
  1674. a story many of us are familiar with. The show was so relevant to
  1675. 2019 as it had a very powerful comment on truth vs.
  1676.  
  1677. disinformation/propaganda "It [truth] is always there, whether we
  1678. see it or not, whether we choose to or not. The truth doesn’t care
  1679. about our needs or wants. It doesn’t care about our governments, our
  1680. ideologies, our religions. It will lie in wait for all time.” These
  1681. words from nuclear scientist Valery Legasov, who would then be
  1682. quoted "What is the cost of lies? It’s not that we’ll mistake them
  1683. for truth. The real danger is that if we hear enough lies, then we
  1684. no longer recognize the truth at all. What can we do then? What else
  1685. is left but to abandon even the hope of truth." - so have we reached
  1686. that point? Where we should abandon all hope of truth? Because there
  1687. was a very strong warning embedded in that TV series (and the
  1688. Chernobyl disaster as a whole) in that "Every lie we tell incurs a
  1689. debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid." - so this
  1690. seemed to reflect the situation we are in right now. What with
  1691. alternative facts, climate change deniers, disinformation efforts
  1692. and all that - are we seeing a way out? At least I'm seeing some
  1693. tools to enable me to spot bots on Twitter - or is this state of
  1694. affairs working in favor of the oligarchy? So we'll get lots more of
  1695. it in 2020? Have we generally come to the conclusion that the
  1696. removal of quality control (aka editors) from the distribution of
  1697. "news" and "information" in the name of "democratization of
  1698. information" was a mistake and that we need solutions (be those
  1699. based on biased AI or biased people) in order to get away from a
  1700. world of alternative facts? Are we seeing serious efforts in this
  1701. area?
  1702.  
  1703. ## [permalink #84](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post84) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Kieran O'Neill [(oneillk)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 12 Jan 20 15:05_
  1704.  
  1705. I would note that it's very interesting to see Jon talking about
  1706. voluntary simplicity on one page, and the Veridian movement on the
  1707. next. I still remember Bruce's excoriating remarks about "hairshirt
  1708. environmentalism" from way back when.
  1709.  
  1710. But it's not a bad juxtaposition to be making. If you look at the
  1711. Millenial generation, we've been were propelled by a combination of
  1712. relative poverty and a sense of environmental responsibility to
  1713. pursue not-always-voluntary simplicity. But at the same time, we
  1714. were a more connected generation than any before us. Phones, tablets
  1715. and laptops were cheap. Rent, cars, property and all the traditional
  1716. accoutrements of the middle class weren't.  So you had "hipsters"
  1717. riding around on bicycles, growing organic vegetables in square-foot
  1718. raised beds, and making their own jam, while meticulously
  1719. documenting everything to their friends on Facebook, Instagram and
  1720. Twitter. It's been a kind of favela chic environmentalism.
  1721.  
  1722. And now Gen Z is coming of age, and they're more connected and more
  1723. economically disadvantaged than ever before. They're going to be
  1724. interesting to watch -- how they practice environmentalism, how they
  1725. organise, and how they vote, especially as the Boomers start dying
  1726. off. The statistics I've seen seem to suggest that Gen Z is more in
  1727. favour of race and immigrant rights, more in favour of gender and
  1728. LGBTQ+ rights, and more in favour of socialism than any before them.
  1729.  
  1730. ## [permalink #85](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post85) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): ixak [(ixak23)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 12 Jan 20 18:33_
  1731.  
  1732. As we think about the rise of nativism and anti-immigrant sentiment
  1733. across Europe and the US (and elsewhere), I was struck by something
  1734. I noticed in Uganda. Uganda is one of the larger refugee-hosting
  1735. countries. They have a population of about 42 million, and they’ve
  1736. taken in more than a million refugees, mostly from South Sudan and
  1737. the DRC. This type of activity isn’t exclusive to them, but it’s
  1738. worth noting in the context of their past history. In the late 80s
  1739. and early 90s, during the Rwandan civil war, Uganda absorbed many
  1740. Rwanda refugees, and future President Museveni incorporated them
  1741. into his military/security apparatus (even to the point of
  1742. appointing future Rwandan president Paul Kagame as his head of
  1743. military intelligence). There are those who see echoes of this in
  1744. the current Ugandan stance towards refugees – the DRC and South
  1745. Sudan are deeply unstable neighbors, and their refugee populations
  1746. provide touchpoints for Uganda’s regional intelligence networks as a
  1747. bulwark against current and future border conflicts and regional
  1748. upheavals.
  1749.  
  1750. Similar stances can be seen in Jordan and Turkey’s attitudes towards
  1751. the Syrian refugee networks – better to have fugitives from an
  1752. unstable neighbor who want or owe you favors than to make them your
  1753. enemies. This was also the US attitude towards Cuban refugees from
  1754. the 60s well on into the 90s, while the Pakistani government has
  1755. used FATA-based Pashtun factions to render parts of Afghanistan
  1756. unstable and persistently ungovernable since the Russians invaded.
  1757.  
  1758. In this context it’s useful to see where similar gates are open in
  1759. response to ethnonationalism’s rising tides. Certainly the
  1760. government of Bangladesh is absorbing Rohingya Muslims from Myanmar,
  1761. and if the BJP in India succeeds in its anti-Muslim agenda, both
  1762. Bangladesh and Pakistan will have to accommodate outmigration or
  1763. even expulsion of substantial numbers of Indian Muslims (in India,
  1764. even small percentages result in big numbers). Ethiopia hosts large
  1765. numbers of Eritreans refugees as well, despite minor thaws in their
  1766. respective relationships.
  1767.  
  1768. Which brings me to my point of curiosity – who’s going to do this
  1769. for the Uighurs? There’s 11+ million of them in China, and maybe
  1770. they aren’t fleeing in large numbers at the moment, but China’s
  1771. obviously concerned enough to toss 5% of Xinjiang into concentration
  1772. camps just on the off-chance that the Muslims there might continue
  1773. to feel less “Chinese” than would otherwise be desirable. If
  1774. outflows increase, it’ll be interesting to see who’s willing to host
  1775. them in ever-increasing numbers.
  1776.  
  1777. ## [permalink #86](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post86) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Mon 13 Jan 20 00:16_
  1778.  
  1779. https://www.politico.eu/article/fayez-al-sarraj-tentative-ceasefire-russia-tur
  1780. [key-takes-hold-in-libya/](https://www.politico.eu/article/fayez-al-sarraj-tentative-ceasefire-russia-turkey-takes-hold-in-libya/)
  1781. Here’s current developments in Libya, where the United Nations, the
  1782. European Union, and the USA are just sorta staring in bemusement as
  1783. Erdogan, plus Putin and his deniable offshore curator-army, have
  1784. arranged a Libyan cease-fire.  If there really is a genuine
  1785. cease-fire in Libya that is sustainable, then I’m not sure what kind
  1786. of hold the Turks and Russians have on the violent factions in
  1787. Libya.   Why would the Libyan warlords do anything that Turks or
  1788. Russians say — out of sheer gratitude?  
  1789. The Russians and the Turks are by no means natural allies, so it’s
  1790. hard to understand how they would jointly maintain a client state in
  1791. Libya.  How do they divvy up the loot without backstabbing each
  1792. other?
  1793.  
  1794. I'd be guessing that they somehow establish a duopoly-on-violence
  1795. and then settle in to drain different Libyan oil-patches, but that’s
  1796. not all that easy, either.   Everybody thinks the oil will pay for
  1797. the invasion and it never does.   So what are they getting into,
  1798. what’s on their mind?  How would they protect Libya from all the
  1799. other interested parties who have been destroying Libya all this
  1800. time, such as Egypt, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates. ISIS and
  1801. various Chinese drone manufacturers?
  1802.  
  1803. Russian couldn’t defeat Afghanistan and Turkey can’t defeat Kurds,
  1804. so why are they begging for this new trouble?  Is it just Napoleonic
  1805. hubris from two tough-guy male oligarchs?
  1806.  
  1807. Also, what if they win?
  1808.  
  1809. ## [permalink #87](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post87) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Mon 13 Jan 20 00:19_
  1810.  
  1811. It makes me wonder if “frozen conflict” might become a more general
  1812. situation.  Why can’t more people live  just like “Abkhazia,”
  1813. “Transdnistria,” “Crimea,” “Novorussia,” “South Ossetia,” which are
  1814. all fake-states under Russian protection?    As for Turkey,  it has
  1815. long possessed illegal “Turkish Cyprus” and also the new Turkish
  1816. protectorate zone in Syria that Trump retreated from, which doesn’t
  1817. even have a name yet.   I don’t expect the Turks to leave that area,
  1818. by the way.  At least: not Erdogan.
  1819.  
  1820. Maybe the Russians and Turks could become so geopolitically
  1821. influential that they can legitimize these various places they’ve
  1822. grabbed — (or, from their domestic point of view, places that fell
  1823. into their laps and that they are nobly defending from the likes of
  1824. savage Greeks and Ukrainians).
  1825.  
  1826. In the case of “Turkish Cyprus” that’s been an unrecognized area
  1827. ever since the early 1970s.  It’s an anomalous zone, generations
  1828. old, that sustains itself mostly with gambling, retirees and heroin.
  1829.  
  1830. Imagine a vast planetary proliferation of Turkish Cypruses.  I’ll
  1831. give it one thing: Turkish Cyprus is a heavily armed Turkish
  1832. military occupation zone and it sure is “peaceful.”  I’ve been
  1833. there: you can hear a pin drop.
  1834.  
  1835. ## [permalink #88](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post88) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Mon 13 Jan 20 00:23_
  1836.  
  1837. Then there’s other people’s post-Westphalian land-grab problems,
  1838. occupied Palestine, Golan Heights, Kosovo… and endlessly “failed
  1839. states” like Congo, Yemen, Afghanistan…. If you add in the
  1840. possibility of waves of refugees,  as ixak23 remarks, due to ethnic
  1841. purges, or rising seas, in a planetary landscape that’s physically
  1842. unstable from climate change, you might be looking at a 22nd century
  1843. where national walls and borders are physically unworkable.  The
  1844. nation-state system, of staking out the acreage with gates and
  1845. barbed wire,  has to be abandoned like the Maginot Line.   You end
  1846. up with a different, novel, planetary security order, as in: what
  1847. mercenary army do you pay mafia protection to, and are you on
  1848. somebody’s belt-and-road trading system…
  1849. A situation where nobody obeys nation-states any more, they’re
  1850. archaic, and you’ve got an oligarchic situation that looks more like
  1851. Dark Age Italian city-states.  Not any post-national “world
  1852. government,” but a pulverized world that’s got some networked
  1853. patches of high-tech governance on it, here and there, with vast
  1854. barbarian hordes of AirBnB nomads.
  1855.  
  1856. ## [permalink #89](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post89) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Mark McDonough [(mcdee)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Mon 13 Jan 20 01:03_
  1857.  
  1858. London looks like a city-state with an archaic nation state
  1859. inconveniently attached.
  1860.  
  1861. ## [permalink #90](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post90) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): ixak [(ixak23)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Mon 13 Jan 20 02:40_
  1862.  
  1863. "The
  1864. nation-state system, of staking out the acreage with gates and
  1865. barbed wire,  has to be abandoned like the Maginot Line.   You end
  1866. up with a different, novel, planetary security order, as in: what
  1867. mercenary army do you pay mafia protection to, and are you on
  1868. somebody’s belt-and-road trading system…"
  1869. Well, GPC is back at the top of the agenda for the US State
  1870. Department
  1871. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-12-10/age-great-power-competition
  1872. But internally they've changed a key word in the acronym. In a
  1873. telling revision (despite its usage in the linked article), it no
  1874. longer stands for "Great Power Competition" but now refers to
  1875. "Global Power Competition."
  1876.  
  1877. ## [permalink #91](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post91) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Mon 13 Jan 20 06:25_
  1878.  
  1879. I can't read the whole article at Foreign Affairs (pay wall), but I
  1880. see this in the second paragraph:
  1881. "... the United States is gearing up for a new era—one marked not by
  1882. unchallenged U.S. dominance but by a rising China and a vindictive
  1883. Russia seeking to undermine U.S. leadership and refashion global
  1884. politics in their favor."
  1885.  
  1886. The current administration has seemed to facilitate the undermining
  1887. of U.S. leadership, and the State Department appears to be in
  1888. Trump's pocket, so I'm wondering just how the United States is
  1889. "gearing up"? I suppose I should subscribe and read the whole
  1890. article.
  1891.  
  1892. ## [permalink #92](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post92) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Mon 13 Jan 20 06:34_
  1893.  
  1894. https://www.fastcompany.com/90450641/total-chaos-how-trumps-washington-is-kill
  1895. [ing-the-next-generation-of-tech](https://www.fastcompany.com/90450641/total-chaos-how-trumps-washington-is-killing-the-next-generation-of-tech)
  1896. That Fast Company article says that ideological chaos and government
  1897. dysfunction are undermining technology development in the U.S.: "But
  1898. Washington’s extreme dysfunction forces decision-making onto cities
  1899. and states. To make matters worse, extremists on both the far left
  1900. and the far right—who make up the majority of voters in low-turnout
  1901. local primary elections—now hold most of the power. When that
  1902. happens, balanced decision-making goes right out the window. So
  1903. instead of weighing the pros and cons of each public policy,
  1904. reaching a compromise, and then giving everyone certainty and
  1905. resolution, tech regulation today is a battle zone."
  1906.  
  1907. Consequently: "A world where Washington is unable to accomplish
  1908. virtually anything and where local governments are dominated by
  1909. ideological interests is a world that only puts us further behind
  1910. countries and governments that are still able to logically regulate
  1911. technology. It’s a world where we can’t protect kids from online
  1912. predators or consumers from overreaching monopolies because every
  1913. issue has to be relitigated dozens and dozens of times, rather than
  1914. patiently debated and resolved once and for all. It’s a world that
  1915. drives away new jobs and tax revenue for the sake of likes and
  1916. retweets."
  1917.  
  1918. ## [permalink #93](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post93) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Kieran O'Neill [(oneillk)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Mon 13 Jan 20 11:04_
  1919.  
  1920. Re: the Foreign Policy article, it's worth noticing that both
  1921. authors are Trump apparatchiks who left the administration to start
  1922. a think tank called the "Initiative on great power competition for
  1923. U.S. and allies/partners".
  1924.  
  1925. Re post-Westphalian limbo-states, how about Puerto Rico or Hong Kong?
  1926.  
  1927. ## [permalink #94](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post94) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 14 Jan 20 05:03_
  1928.  
  1929. Justin Pickard remarks:
  1930. “I wonder if a country-by-country weather forecast is the most
  1931. helpful way to be slicing things.
  1932.  
  1933. “With that in mind, are there any smaller places (cities,
  1934. landscapes,
  1935. retail parks, UNESCO world heritage sites, whatever) that feel like
  1936. particularly good points of reference, in figuring out the shape of
  1937. things to come? What about people? Any individuals we should be
  1938. keeping an eye on, or who aren't getting the attention they deserve?
  1939.  
  1940. And how about those things that overspill or ignore the borders of
  1941. the modern nation-state?”
  1942. “Well, yeah — people from superpowers tend to overestimate
  1943. governments and what they can achieve.  It’s often rather
  1944. superstitious, like the assumption that the Archbishop can lead
  1945. prayers about the weather.
  1946.  
  1947. *When you’re in a small, weak country with a dinky, indifferent
  1948. government, people tend to tackle their big problems culturally.
  1949.  
  1950. “It’s really shameful and inappropriate that scandalous-person there
  1951. should be doing something so wicked that is so unlike
  1952. Us-Here-in-Ruritania.”  There’s a ton of that scoldiness in modern
  1953. social media because there’s no such thing as a legislative remedy.
  1954.  
  1955. *So if governments are less potent and worth less attention, what
  1956. matters now? — and I’m thinking it’s most likely oligarchs.  Why
  1957. waste time fretting about Republican elected officials, when
  1958. right-wing Congresspeople don’t care about each other?  Obviously
  1959. they care about Trump, the Murdochs and the Kochs.
  1960.  
  1961. ## [permalink #95](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post95) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 14 Jan 20 05:04_
  1962.  
  1963. *It would be good to have some authoritative, vetted publication
  1964. along the line of “Foreign Policy” that covered the politically
  1965. active ultra-rich.  Admittedly, they mostly work though cut-outs and
  1966. think-tanks, they don’t hop out of the limo and personally kick ass
  1967. and take names, but it would make interesting reading.  Especially,
  1968. oligarchs themselves would read it.
  1969.  
  1970. *it’s not unusual that the wealthy should dominate governments.  But
  1971. the semi-covert breed of oligarch called “curator” is new — rich,
  1972. offshored warlords.  Maybe they’re better understood as rich people
  1973. usurping what are normally nation-state prerogatives.  Certainly
  1974. they’ve got as much wealth as many nation-states, and they also have
  1975. arms and soldiers.
  1976.  
  1977. *Also, armed oligarchs, the curators, want to kill each other.
  1978.  
  1979. They’re not, like, cordial rich-guy pals at Davos Forum.  For years
  1980. Erik Prince of Blackwater has been urging anyone who listens to
  1981. assassinate the Iranian General Suleimani, and Prince finally got
  1982. his way.  So you have to wonder if maybe it’s open season on armed
  1983. billionaires from now on.  
  1984.  
  1985. ## [permalink #96](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post96) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 14 Jan 20 05:04_
  1986.  
  1987. *There are places on earth that aren’t in nation-states, like those
  1988. frozen conflicts and state-failure areas that I mentioned earlier.
  1989.  
  1990. However, the truly novel development for 02020 is the
  1991. Xinjiang-style, Kashmir-Style, Internet blackout zone, inside a
  1992. functional nation.  
  1993. *You just shut down the cellphone towers and the routers and leave
  1994. the rebels to stew in their info-darkness.  India even blacked-out
  1995. their own capital for a while.  It would not surprise me to see this
  1996. practice spread or even get written into law: like, Kashmir is on
  1997. double-secret probation!  They can’t have any Internet or phones
  1998. until they bow the knee!!
  1999.  
  2000. *So what is daily life like in these newly-deprived areas?  We know
  2001. what a pre-Internet situation looks like, but a post-Internet
  2002. situation — what are the political implications?  If you live there,
  2003. what are you supposed to do with yourself?
  2004.  
  2005. *In Cuba they have long had what they call “the Weekly Packet,”
  2006. which is a terabyte thumb-drive of, just, samizdat copied Internet
  2007. stuff for the blacked-out Cuba-zone.  It’s rather like a monthly
  2008. State of the World summary, but with lots of stolen entertainment.  
  2009. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Paquete_Semanal
  2010. So should EVERYBODY read that “packet”? Would it do any good in
  2011. Kashmir or Xinjiang?  Should somebody build a USA Paquete, just in
  2012. case the Washington Post and New York Times get blacked-out as
  2013. enemies-of-the-people, or maybe a QAnon Paquete so you can continue
  2014. your heroic struggle against pedophile pizza parlors after Facebook
  2015. bans you?  Nobody has thought any of this through.
  2016.  
  2017. ## [permalink #97](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post97) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 14 Jan 20 08:23_
  2018.  
  2019. Speaking of curators... all television news in Russia is in a
  2020. relationship to the state similar to Fox News' relationship to the
  2021. Republican party (which is attempting to become synonymous with "the
  2022. state," seeking complete and total dominance of government).
  2023.  
  2024. A 2017 Guardian piece describes how it works: "... reporters working
  2025. for state news outlets – which effectively are almost all news
  2026. outlets in Russia – are public servants first and journalists second
  2027. (if at all)."
  2028.  
  2029. Interesting comment: "... in the US and in Russia, the media are
  2030. often distracted with outrage over absurd behaviour and nonsensical
  2031. public statements while ignoring what those in power want to be
  2032. ignored."
  2033.  
  2034. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/24/putin-russia-media-state
  2035. [-government-control](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/24/putin-russia-media-state-government-control)
  2036.  
  2037. ## [permalink #98](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post98) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Tiffany Lee Brown (T) [(magdalen)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 14 Jan 20 12:39_
  2038.  
  2039. "vast barbarian hordes of AirBnB nomads."
  2040.  
  2041. chortle!
  2042.  
  2043. i would love to see what a post-Internet something looks like. i would miss
  2044. y'all, but i'd welcome people existing in real life, engaging with their
  2045. real communities, coming out of their global-bubble-pods  to break bread
  2046. and fix roads and take on climate collapse together.
  2047.  
  2048. ## [permalink #99](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post99) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 14 Jan 20 13:38_
  2049.  
  2050. Online relationships are valuable, we don't have to ditch those
  2051. connections in order to have physical community. They sorta work
  2052. together, in fact. We just have to define the real problems, and
  2053. deal with 'em. Spending time together online is not a problem, but
  2054. jacking in obsessively to the exclusion of other aspects of our
  2055. lives is most certainly a Bad Thing. It's okay to look through the
  2056. window of your device from time to time, but it's wrong to fall
  2057. through a virtual rabbit hole, to lose your sense of reality, to
  2058. confuse media with experience.
  2059.  
  2060. One of my talks was about a confusion driven by the persistence of
  2061. sci-fi notions in contemporary culture. Star Wars, Star Trek, Marvel
  2062. Universe et al have become myths that we almost believe. And we
  2063. believe without real evidence that time travel could be a thing,
  2064. that interplanetary travel is inevitable, that ships might travel at
  2065. warp speed through wormholes, that artificial intelligence will
  2066. evolve to resemble human intelligence/awareness. Our constant media
  2067. exposure to fictional narratives leaves us confused about what's
  2068. real.
  2069.  
  2070. Perhaps we should take more time to just be, to see things as they
  2071. are, to get to know our minds apart from embedded narratives.  
  2072. I've noticed in media an increase in horrific fantasy imagery and
  2073. narrative, and wonder what that's doing to our heads... to our
  2074. beliefs... to our expectations.
  2075.  
  2076. Garbage in... what's coming out?
  2077.  
  2078. ## [permalink #100](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page04.html#post100) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Tiffany Lee Brown (T) [(magdalen)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 14 Jan 20 19:27_
  2079.  
  2080. totally with you on that, jonl! GIGO for sure.
  2081.  
  2082. >  Perhaps we should take more time to just be
  2083. yes. i find it surprisingly difficult. my mind wants to spend all its time
  2084. chunking away at geopolitics and gender issues and community politics and
  2085. and and and. some of us require substantial amounts of time away from
  2086. screens and news media in order to recover a bit of sanity and balance. a
  2087.  
  2088. one-hour walk a few times a week doesn't cut it.
  2089.  
  2090. ## [permalink #101](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post101) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 15 Jan 20 02:43_Although I truly admire its honesty, and it even cheers me up to
  2091. see it said, this is one of the most wistful things I’ve read in
  2092. ages.  November 8, 2016: that dreadful day when Big Tech first
  2093. turned evil!  The day when WIRED magazine should have switched from
  2094. relentless Industry booster to a moralizing scold!
  2095.  
  2096. WIRED is a little late at managing that transition, but they’re
  2097. done it now.
  2098.  
  2099. Poor WIRED!   If I could have shown this screed to Jane Metcalfe
  2100. and Louis Rossetto on the day they first appeared on my Austin
  2101. doorstep — “Hi!  We’re starting a cool new magazine in San
  2102. Francisco, would you like to write for us?” I bet they would have
  2103. run home to Amsterdam and cried.
  2104.  
  2105. https://www.wired.com/story/wired25-work-together-fix-mess-we-made/
  2106.  
  2107. ## [permalink #102](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post102) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 15 Jan 20 02:45_
  2108.  
  2109. https://www.wired.com/story/wired25-work-together-fix-mess-we-made/
  2110.  
  2111. With that said, that said, in my opinion, the tech scene is
  2112. kinda overdoing it with the self-scourging tech-lash.  The techies
  2113. happen to be top dogs in a particularly rotten era, so people
  2114. naturally blame them for most-everything.  Also, the tech moguls
  2115. love the limelight and would much rather look like massive baddies
  2116. than just blundering morons who ran themselves into a ditch.
  2117.  
  2118. Sometimes a hand-wringing mea culpa is a great way to play drama
  2119. queen.
  2120.  
  2121. When you look around, obviously the other major industries are
  2122. just as bad or worse than Big Tech is.  Other big American
  2123. industries are not moral exemplars of corporate good-citizenship and
  2124. kindness to the user-base.  The US has become a crooked country, and
  2125. its industries look and act crooked. Real estate is wicked, cruel, unworkable.  The car biz kills and
  2126. pollutes. The arms biz, it’s huge and takes whatever it wants.
  2127.  
  2128. Aviation is crashing headlong, electricity blacks people out,
  2129. nuclear was an awful, irretrievable mistake in tech development….
  2130.  
  2131. Cable TV is blatantly corrupt and exploitative, the most fiercely
  2132. hated US biz of them all, while Big Pharma kills people outright,
  2133. and even agriculture lives on handouts….. The fossil-fuel biz is
  2134. super-ultra-terrible,  literal crush-the-world bad.  They’ve become
  2135. super-villains, in a trip-to-The-Hague level of
  2136. crime-against-humanity.  There’s never been a major industry so
  2137. wicked as people who can melt the poles, set continents on fire and
  2138. lie about it.  They make Zuckerberg look like a Teletubby.
  2139.  
  2140. Even American church pastors are actively wicked in MMXX,
  2141. they’re become pro-Trump race-hate misogynists.  You couldn’t dream
  2142. of deriving a serious moral lesson from any major American preacher
  2143. — they’re men of God, but they’re starkly obvious nogoodniks.  Bill
  2144. Gates has ten times the moral authority of any American theocrat —
  2145. because  at least the guy’s a serious philanthropist who puts in the
  2146. hours.  America’s full-time ethical leaders are blatant Elmer Gantry
  2147. figures that no sane stakeholder would trust with a burnt-out match.
  2148.  
  2149. ## [permalink #103](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post103) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 15 Jan 20 02:46_
  2150.  
  2151. You can’t be a morally squeaky-clean commercial enterprise
  2152. within a corrupted society.  That can’t be done.  Professional
  2153. integrity isn’t possible either — the editor of WIRED is arguing
  2154. here that software engineers ought to act more like
  2155. engineer-engineers, but China is a Communist-engineering
  2156. technocracy.  China’s got engineers out the wazoo, and they’re
  2157. engineering Xinjiang and face-surveillance.  Osama bin Laden was an
  2158. engineer.  Engineers are just a profession like doctors or lawyers,
  2159. and those professions can’t look good when politics are crooked and
  2160. the health system kills people.
  2161.  
  2162. The simple truth is, it is humiliating to live in an oligarchy.
  2163.  
  2164. Injustice prevails, and most people have to sacrifice their freedom,
  2165. dignity and initiative.  It feels like a bad scene all around
  2166. because it’s indeed just plain bad, and with few paths of moral
  2167. redemption.   Cool hardware in your hand doesn’t redeem you from the
  2168. general air of corruption, arrogance, oppression, repression, and
  2169. all-around shame and sleaze.
  2170.  
  2171. ## [permalink #104](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post104) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 15 Jan 20 02:46_
  2172.  
  2173. Unlike this WIRED editorial, I don’t think that the tech biz
  2174. has the innate ability to grab its own bootstraps, clean itself up
  2175. and march ahead manfully.  That’s like expecting American
  2176. health-care to miraculously reform itself because doctors and nurses
  2177. somehow become more Hippocratic.  
  2178.  
  2179. What will likely happen is no particular reform, or maybe bits
  2180. and pieces, while a Black Swan appears that makes all these concerns
  2181. seem irrelevant.  Reading this ten years from now will be like
  2182. reading about people trying to reform their videotape rental biz.
  2183.  
  2184. Voltaire lived in an Oligarchy, and he was an Enlightenment
  2185. figure.  The lesson of Voltaire is that it’s better to be honest
  2186. than to try to be good.
  2187.  
  2188. ## [permalink #105](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post105) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce McLaughlin [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 15 Jan 20 08:19_
  2189.  
  2190. > Via email from Bruce McLaughlin:
  2191. Perhaps “sci-fi notions in contemporary culture” became popular
  2192. because people were looking for stories to hang all of the
  2193. technological changes we have been going through on.
  2194.  
  2195. I think “horrific fantasy imagery and narrative” may be an attempt
  2196. by people to come to grips with the global political move to
  2197. oligarchy along with the disastrous effects of global warming. In 20
  2198. years Game of Thrones may seem like a truer account of the world
  2199. than West Wing.
  2200.  
  2201. Over the course of history there have been human settlements and
  2202. civilizations run by people who did not value the truth. I think
  2203. that is where we are headed now. Pointing this out is not going to
  2204. be enough to stop it.
  2205.  
  2206. ## [permalink #106](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post106) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Alberto Cottica [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 15 Jan 20 08:47_
  2207.  
  2208. From Alberto Cottica, via a mutual friend:
  2209. I enjoyed the broad, grim sweep of Bruce’s “everywhere is kind of
  2210. the same” in Posts 5 to 7. But I wonder: where does that leave the
  2211. European Union? That’s the one polity that can never go
  2212. ethno-nationalist, not without completely disintegrating. I live in
  2213. Brussels, with maybe half a foot in the Eurosphere. From where I
  2214. stand I can see the EU shudder and lurch, but to be honest I have no
  2215. idea where all this is going. The EU does seem to have a chance to
  2216. do something completely different – almost an obligation to do so,
  2217. just by sheer inertia in a world that has suddenly changed its
  2218. direction. The buzzwords are getting weirder (“Green EU Deal”,
  2219. “Internet of Humans”), and von der Leyen is still mostly an unknown
  2220. quantity.
  2221.  
  2222. Any intuition to share from you guys?
  2223.  
  2224. Thanks, keep up the good work!
  2225.  
  2226. ## [permalink #107](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post107) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Emily Gertz [(emilyg)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 15 Jan 20 09:00_
  2227.  
  2228. >>>
  2229. That Fast Company article says that ideological chaos and government
  2230. dysfunction are undermining technology development in the U.S.: "But
  2231. Washington’s extreme dysfunction forces decision-making onto cities
  2232. and states. To make matters worse, extremists on both the far left
  2233. and the far right—who make up the majority of voters in low-turnout
  2234. local primary elections—now hold most of the power. When that
  2235. happens, balanced decision-making goes right out the window. So
  2236. instead of weighing the pros and cons of each public policy,
  2237. reaching a compromise, and then giving everyone certainty and
  2238. resolution, tech regulation today is a battle zone."
  2239.  
  2240. >>>
  2241. Can we pause for a moment to laugh at, or cry over, what passes for
  2242. "far-left" these days in the eyes of a publication like Fast
  2243. Company? Most of the positions of today's Democratic Party activists
  2244. who are furthest "left" from the party's center would be perfectly
  2245. recognizable to FDR or LBJ. And not because those positions are
  2246. unpopular; but because one side has done a great job for the past
  2247. few decades of spreading reactionary disinformation, while the other
  2248. mostly dozed off and let it happen.
  2249.  
  2250. As someone whose job involves reporting on and analyzing
  2251. environmental and climate politics, I feel desperate for better ways
  2252. to describe positions we've called "right" and "left" for the past
  2253. 150 years.
  2254.  
  2255. ## [permalink #108](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post108) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 15 Jan 20 10:49_
  2256.  
  2257. "because one side has done a great job for the past few decades of
  2258. spreading reactionary disinformation, while the other mostly dozed
  2259. off and let it happen."
  2260.  
  2261. I would say that differently. I would say one side had declared war,
  2262. and the other side didn't have enough of a clue to realize it.
  2263.  
  2264. ## [permalink #109](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post109) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): those Andropovian bongs [(rik)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 15 Jan 20 10:52_
  2265.  
  2266. Very well said.
  2267.  
  2268. ## [permalink #110](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post110) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 15 Jan 20 11:47_
  2269.  
  2270. I stumbled onto this one while trying to improve my mood and slide
  2271. the black dog out the door... One reason we have to be cheerful:
  2272. toilets are more effective than ever, and using less water than
  2273. ever.
  2274.  
  2275. "The long, sustained greening of American johns has been one of the
  2276. most transformative factors in keeping drought-stricken western
  2277. cities from running dry. The proof is in the water meters: In cities
  2278. from Denver to Las Vegas to Phoenix, water use is either staying
  2279. stable or going down, even while populations continue to rise."
  2280.  
  2281. https://reasonstobecheerful.world/how-toilets-saved-the-west/
  2282.  
  2283. ## [permalink #111](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post111) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Paulina Borsook [(loris)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 15 Jan 20 12:04_
  2284.  
  2285. in the spirit of 'as above so below'
  2286. larry lessig suing the nytimes for 'clickbait defamation'
  2287. the .org top level domain registry sold under stealth of night to
  2288. private equity.
  2289.  
  2290. ## [permalink #112](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post112) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 16 Jan 20 01:56_
  2291.  
  2292. *The new World Economic Forum "Global Risk Report" is out for MMXX.
  2293.  
  2294. I generally leaf through these every year.
  2295.  
  2296. *They rarely surprise me, but I enjoy reading the world's problems
  2297. framed in anodyne Swiss technocrat-ese.  It's language that's easy
  2298. to parody.  I could write just like that myself, if I didn't prefer
  2299. to discuss the same topics in a wisecracking, cyberpunk,
  2300. jargon-laden bohemian dialect.
  2301.  
  2302. *Normally the Davos crowd just worry about what CEOs worry about, ie
  2303. economics, but now they're plenty worried about drowning and/or
  2304. being on fire.  From a CEO's perspective, of course.
  2305.  
  2306. *I'm getting a little worried about the personal safety of the
  2307. well-to-do globalists who show up for Davos.  I'm not sure they
  2308. understand the moral effect it would have if some ticked-off
  2309. oligarch "curator" decided to strafe Davos with a drone.  Of course
  2310. everybody would assume it was some commie terrorist or fundie zealot
  2311. attacking the rich, but the rich don't get it about the predatory
  2312. rich attacking the Establishment rich. They don't get it that the
  2313. oligarchs are arming and there's no leash left.
  2314.  
  2315. https://www.weforum.org/global-risks
  2316.  
  2317. ## [permalink #113](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post113) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 16 Jan 20 01:58_
  2318.  
  2319. *Here's a few excerpted quotes from the WEF Risks Report -- I like
  2320. the way they class up our WELL discussion here. They should flash by
  2321. in the WELL discourse, much like Davos women of the European
  2322. mistress-class, sleek, multilingual secretary-assistants with
  2323. leather clipboards, who emerge from limos clad in Armani.  For a lot
  2324. of Davos attendees, it's basically a week-long event of top-end
  2325. sex-tourism, a kind of Swiss Ibiza with celebrity lectures instead
  2326. of disco.  You kind of have to see that to believe it, but, well,
  2327. that's who they are.
  2328.  
  2329. "Powerful economic, demographic and technological forces are shaping
  2330. a new balance of power. The result is an unsettled geopolitical
  2331. landscape — one in which states are increasingly viewing
  2332. opportunities and challenges through unilateral lenses. What were
  2333. once givens regarding alliance structures and multilateral systems
  2334. no longer hold as states question the value of long-standing
  2335. frameworks, adopt more nationalist postures in pursuit of individual
  2336. agendas and weigh the potential geopolitical consequences of
  2337. economic decoupling. (...)
  2338. "Amid this darkening economic outlook, citizens’ discontent has
  2339. hardened with systems that have failed to promote advancement.
  2340.  
  2341. Disapproval of how governments are addressing profound economic and
  2342. social issues has sparked protests throughout the world, potentially
  2343. weakening the ability of governments to take decisive action should
  2344. a downturn occur. Without economic and social stability, countries
  2345. could lack the financial resources, fiscal margin, political capital
  2346. or social support needed to confront key global risks."
  2347.  
  2348. ## [permalink #114](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post114) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 16 Jan 20 01:59_
  2349.  
  2350. WEF climate crisis MMXX, paging Greta Thunberg:
  2351. "Climate change is striking harder and more rapidly than many
  2352. expected. The&#8232;last five years are on track to be the warmest
  2353. on record, natural disasters are becoming more intense and more
  2354. frequent, and last year witnessed unprecedented extreme weather
  2355. throughout the world. Alarmingly, global temperatures are on track
  2356. to increase by at least 3°C towards the end of the century—twice
  2357. what climate experts have warned is the limit to avoid the most
  2358. severe economic, social and  environmental consequences.
  2359.  
  2360. "The near-term impacts of climate change add up to a planetary
  2361. emergency that will include loss of life, social and geopolitical
  2362. tensions and negative economic impacts.  For the first time in the
  2363. history of the Global Risks Perception Survey, environmental
  2364. concerns dominate the top long-term risks by likelihood among
  2365. members of the World Economic Forum’s multistakeholder community;
  2366. three of the top five risks by impact are also environmental (see
  2367. Figure I, The Evolving Risks Landscape 2007–2020)....
  2368.  
  2369. *The graphics are good in this "Global Risks Report."  I recommend
  2370. it. I pay attention, hey, I'm not even kidding.
  2371.  
  2372. https://www.weforum.org/global-risks
  2373.  
  2374. ## [permalink #115](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post115) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 16 Jan 20 07:58_
  2375.  
  2376. Increasingly often I have to turn off the news feeds, hide the
  2377. phone, ditch the computers, shut down the rather imposing flat
  2378. screen that fills our living room wall, and look outside the
  2379. surrounding windows, where the grass is growing same as it's grown
  2380. my whole life. Birds fly by and squirrels scurry along the fence.
  2381.  
  2382. It's much warmer than before, but not yet distressingly so.
  2383.  
  2384. While the world has changed so much in my seven decades, and change
  2385. has hyper-accelerated over the last couple of decades, I remind
  2386. myself that the computer-mediated world inside my head isn't the
  2387. real world; my newsfeeds don't represent reality accurately. When
  2388. I'm still, following my breath, everything is change and everything
  2389. his changeless.  In the wildest of times, silence is crucial.
  2390.  
  2391. ## [permalink #116](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post116) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): bill braasch [(bbraasch)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 16 Jan 20 16:20_
  2392.  
  2393. Climate change is giving us a physics lesson on momentum.  Seeing is
  2394. believing. The second derivative of ocean temperature is positive.  We are
  2395. warming the ocean faster year over year.
  2396.  
  2397. FUDDs Law:  If you push something hard enough, it will fall over.
  2398.  
  2399. Off to Davos to kick that around.  It turns out to be a banking problem.
  2400.  
  2401. ## [permalink #117](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post117) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Gary Gach [(ggg)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 16 Jan 20 17:13_
  2402.  
  2403. Expand on that last sentence, a little, Bill?
  2404.  
  2405. ( please ? )
  2406.  
  2407. ## [permalink #118](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post118) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): bill braasch [(bbraasch)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 16 Jan 20 20:45_
  2408.  
  2409. BlackRock recently said they were going to take climate impact into
  2410. its banking decisions.  There’s certainly money to be made in the
  2411. transition to green energy.  
  2412.  
  2413. ## [permalink #119](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post119) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Fri 17 Jan 20 02:17_
  2414.  
  2415. Okay, what is Vladimir Putin up to?  Why does he have to dissolve
  2416. his own government and fire everybody, when events seem to be going
  2417. great for him?  You’re not supposed to lead a revolutionary coup
  2418. d’etat against your own government when you yourself already control
  2419. everything in it.  That looks either Maoist or whimsical, and
  2420. neither one of those is good.
  2421.  
  2422. Maybe Putin’s trying to demonstrate that the legal Russian
  2423. government is paper-thin and he can actually rule by secret decree
  2424. by just using spies, “curators” and billionaire oligarchs.  Maybe
  2425. the facade of legality is more trouble to have to him than it’s
  2426. worth.  But people do like to have these cover stories.  If you’re a
  2427. spy and you have no cover story, you’re not even a “spy.”  You’re
  2428. just some guy standing on a heap of cash with a cluster of
  2429. headphones and telescopes.  People can see you.  They might shoot at
  2430. you.  You’re like a crab without a shell.
  2431.  
  2432. ## [permalink #120](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post120) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Fri 17 Jan 20 02:18_
  2433.  
  2434. Nobody seems to have seen this event coming, especially inside
  2435. Russia.  They’re just kinda standing around gawping.  I hope that
  2436. Vladimir hasn’t simply wigged-out, just gone unilateral and guzzled
  2437. his own bathwater.  Vladimir never drinks vodka, but he’s an old man
  2438. who still fancies himself as a muscular judo tough-guy.  An aging
  2439. man who dumps the mother of the children for a much younger gymnast
  2440. mistress, that’s the kind of guy who is gonna skin-pop a lot of
  2441. performance enhancers. Maybe his judgement is wandering, and he’s
  2442. getting impulsive.
  2443.  
  2444. I don’t think that Vladimir takes the Libya thing seriously, because
  2445. he shouldn’t be pulling an internally destabilizing stunt while also
  2446. launching a daring, offshored imperialist adventure.  Something’s
  2447. just not adding up here.  I guess it’s time for some Kremlinology.
  2448.  
  2449. ## [permalink #121](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post121) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Fri 17 Jan 20 06:36_
  2450.  
  2451. The Guardian has this Putin quote: "We all have to think together
  2452. how to build a structure of power so that it better corresponds to
  2453. the pre-election period and prepares the country for the period
  2454. after the presidential election in March." Their interpretation:
  2455. "Today's events suggested that Mr Putin was determined to install
  2456. trusted allies in positions of influence before his departure from
  2457. power next year."
  2458.  
  2459. CNN: "By taking steps to tighten his grip on power, Putin is also
  2460. sending a message to the wider world. More Putin in Russia means
  2461. more Putin on the international stage. And if the last few years
  2462. have taught us anything, that means a Russia willing to go to
  2463. extraordinary lengths to act as a direct rival for influence to the
  2464. US-led world order -- and create more headaches for America and its
  2465. allies."
  2466.  
  2467. Maybe he's making room in his government for an expatriate Trump?
  2468.  
  2469. ## [permalink #122](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post122) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): ixak [(ixak23)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Fri 17 Jan 20 07:31_
  2470.  
  2471. As far as Putin’s objectives in Russia and in Libya, he’s definitely
  2472. becoming concerned with his legacy. His actions in Russia are most
  2473. likely the result of cognitive dissonance between his desire for a
  2474. Russia with strong institutions that will survive him, crossed with
  2475. his desire to have those institutions subject to his singular
  2476. authority. You can’t have both, but he’s still going to try.
  2477.  
  2478. The Libya thing is far more complex, and raises the topic of what
  2479. Russia’s goals are in Africa altogether. The allure of having
  2480. leverage over a weak oil-rich state with Mediterranean port access
  2481. and (relative) proximity to both southern Europe and the Atlantic is
  2482. pretty evident. Overland access to armaments markets are also an
  2483. obvious plus, given the popularity of cold war arms and vehicles
  2484. across the continent. Just about every African country I’ve been to
  2485. that has an air force has a few MI-24s and MI-17s in their air, and
  2486. the reality is that you can buy 40 used MI-17s for the cost of a
  2487. single used Blackhawk helicopter. And like software, armaments
  2488. aren’t just a product anymore, they’re a service with ongoing
  2489. training and maintenance contracts that persist beyond the initial
  2490. weapon purchase (AAAS? Armaments as a service?). The utility of
  2491. Russian activity in a place like Madagascar is much less obvious,
  2492. but it’s definitely happening.
  2493.  
  2494. All of this happens at an interesting time for both French and US
  2495. military engagement in Africa. Recent French casualties from the
  2496. helicopter crash in Mali have spurred some reconsideration of their
  2497. role in the Sahel, but Macron’s paternalistic attitude towards
  2498. Francophone Africa has also triggered a “don’t let the door hit you
  2499. in the ass” backlash on the part of the various African leaders. The
  2500. US DoD is also rethinking their AFRICOM footprint and general
  2501. commitment to their African allies. This would shift the burden for
  2502. US security assistance in Africa almost exclusively to the State
  2503. Department, which is far less able to operate outside of major urban
  2504. centers in the more unstable countries. I mention this because
  2505. target locations for groups like AQIM, Boko Haram and ISIS in Africa
  2506. seem to be moving to weaker and weaker states that are less able to
  2507. control their own territory. The circumstances in Burkina Faso and
  2508. Mali, for example, have degraded dramatically just over the past
  2509. year, with extremist groups killing hundreds of soldiers, and
  2510. thousands of civilians in those two countries alone.
  2511.  
  2512. Understanding that there are plenty of good arguments for
  2513. anti-interventionism, what should be done for countries that are
  2514. outgunned by malicious non-state actors in their midst and
  2515. desperately asking for assistance?
  2516.  
  2517. ## [permalink #123](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post123) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): The ineluctable modality of the risible. [(patf)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Fri 17 Jan 20 18:58_
  2518.  
  2519. > Russian governmental reorg.
  2520.  
  2521. Perhaps the simple story is not only simple but true: oil.
  2522.  
  2523. There was something I read at one point that I never followed up
  2524. upon: the biggest single part of the backstory to the collapse of
  2525. the Soviet Union had to do with a price of oil which, after the Arab
  2526. oil shocks in the 70s, cratered again in the 80s.  Apparent here:
  2527. http://chartsbin.com/view/oau
  2528. One part of that story is price-supply push: the price rises of the
  2529. 70s greatly aided both North Sea oil in Europe and Alaskan oil for
  2530. the US.  It'd be interesting to do the research to see just where
  2531. elsewhere further new supply came online.
  2532.  
  2533. It takes time though for things to play out and it took something on
  2534. the order of 10 yrs before this really undermined the finances of
  2535. the Soviet Union.
  2536.  
  2537. There's a thing to keep in mind.  I worked these numbers once (but
  2538. don't have that in front of me now) - oil is king of commodities and
  2539. may represent half or more of all natural resource revenue
  2540. worldwide.  So as much as the SU/Russia has all these other natural
  2541. resources - diamonds, etc - income from oil is crucial and there's
  2542. no substitute.
  2543.  
  2544. John D Rockefeller said something to the effect of: oil is the best
  2545. business you can be in - and the second best.  When times are good,
  2546. profits gush.  Might be hard to know what to do with all the cash.
  2547.  
  2548. Proximately, oil again crashed from > $100/bbl to its present range
  2549. of 50-60 in 2014, so it's been half its former value for something
  2550. like 5-6 yrs.  It takes time for things to play out - and Vlad just
  2551. reorganized his govt.
  2552.  
  2553. The Russians are an ingenious people and I imagine there are a lot
  2554. of inside stories of the brilliant successes they've had
  2555. maintaining, and even [somewhat] increasing oil production in
  2556. Russia's aging fields.  That's a lot of the story why their interest
  2557. in the Arctic is so acute.  Even supposing effective Arctic
  2558. geopolitical brinksmanship, and the Russians seize a very large part
  2559. of the Arctic for exploration, the capital costs are going to be
  2560. astonishing.  This is not your grandfather's west Siberian field.
  2561.  
  2562. It's part of the Russian shtick though to believe they can rise to
  2563. heroic deeds in particular (historically) those that attach to
  2564. taming new, and impossibly difficult, geographies.  We'll see.
  2565.  
  2566. Declining demography doesn't help.
  2567.  
  2568. So Vlad, and the Russians generally, are in a pickle.  I think we
  2569. ascribe a Russian, or Soviet, govt more stability than is justified
  2570. and it's pretty clear how that worked out last time.  On the
  2571. positive side for them the economics of kleptocracy probably are
  2572. better historically understood than Communism so that helps - if
  2573. you're Putin & Co.
  2574.  
  2575. Cyberwarfare?  Still a sideshow to oil.  Hopes are high.  As far as
  2576. I can see the most successful cyber attack wasn't anything either
  2577. the Russians or Chinese did - rather it was Stuxnet which was the
  2578. product of an Israeli-US collaboration.
  2579.  
  2580. It would seem that the Soviet Union's, and Russia's, perennial
  2581. geostragtice role is spoiler and while it's a less expenisve
  2582. proposition than say hegemon, it still has its bills to be paid and
  2583. there's nothing even remotely on the horizon that can pay those
  2584. bills like oil.
  2585.  
  2586. ## [permalink #124](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post124) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): The ineluctable modality of the risible. [(patf)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Fri 17 Jan 20 19:37_
  2587.  
  2588. This is always useful.  Where does Russia make its money on export
  2589. markets?
  2590.  
  2591. https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus/
  2592. It's dominated by the dark brown industrial category on the left
  2593. whose official name is "Mineral Products" where in Russia's case
  2594. that means hydrocarbons.  If I total the 4 largest numbers I get
  2595. (+ 28 17 5.8 4.7)
  2596. 55.5
  2597. 55.5% of all exports by dollar value.  Actually, that's better
  2598. (less) than other oil exporters such as Saudi Arabia or Venezuela
  2599. whose intl income is pretty much all oil.
  2600.  
  2601. Wheat is tiny - in dollar value.  What about Russian arms sales?
  2602.  
  2603. https://www.army-technology.com/features/arms-exports-by-country/
  2604. For 2018, #2 behind the US but, while geopolitically important, arms
  2605. bring in only $6.4 bln.  Which leads me to wonder: is the Russian
  2606. arms industry even profitable and if it isn't it's a drain, but a
  2607. small one.  The Soviet Union massively subsidized arms production
  2608. (and one assumes oil income helped in that regard) and arms
  2609. production may well still be subsidized.  Probably provides a lot of
  2610. employment in a country that doesn't have many industries - to speak
  2611. of in volume terms.
  2612.  
  2613. ## [permalink #125](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page05.html#post125) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sat 18 Jan 20 10:20_
  2614.  
  2615. https://www.occrp.org/en/investigations/the-chefs-global-footprints
  2616. Here's an article about attempting to follow the "curator" Yevgeny
  2617. Prighozin by following his private jets.  Jets are still subject to
  2618. planetary regulation, so they're a traceable stand-in for Prigozhin
  2619. himself.  Even though there's no particular reason that Prigozhin
  2620. should be inside any particular plane (he has several). Occasionally
  2621. his wife and kids release a selfie from within a plane, because
  2622. they're not spooky "curators" themselves, they're just common,
  2623. everyday rich people.
  2624.  
  2625. Maybe Prigozhin could cover his tracks in future by buying a fleet
  2626. of time-share jets, and then hopping on and off of them.  
  2627. Since Prighozhin came to prominence after the seizure of Crimea,
  2628. he's been in a lot of odd places.  Generally he sets up some
  2629. commercial enterprise on the ground in Whatever-stan, as well as
  2630. shuffling in some tough-guy militia.
  2631.  
  2632. ## [permalink #126](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post126) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sat 18 Jan 20 12:14_
  2633.  
  2634. By the way, when Putin gets directly asked about Prigozhin, he asks
  2635. why the Western powers don't restrain George Soros.
  2636.  
  2637. ## [permalink #127](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post127) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Gregory Prinsze [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sat 18 Jan 20 16:53_
  2638.  
  2639. My friend Mark Petrakis posted this, written by Gregory Prinsze, on
  2640. Facebook:
  2641. "Democracy" was a temporary phase of history which allowed bankers
  2642. to take control from the earlier generation of dominant power
  2643. players: the Church and the old European monarchies.
  2644.  
  2645. Once the influence of the Church and the monarchies was sufficiently
  2646. diminished, the next goal for the bankers and their oligarchical
  2647. cronies was to increasingly take control of "democracy" itself, a
  2648. process which picked up momentum and sophistication throughout the
  2649. 20th century.
  2650.  
  2651. The next steps are increasing privatization (already well underway)
  2652. and eventually phasing out "democracy" altogether. The final
  2653. destination is intended to be a global tyranny run by a tiny gang of
  2654. supremacist psychopaths and their technocrat commissars... a utopia
  2655. for them, and a cleverly disguised gulag for everyone else.
  2656.  
  2657. There's no question that this is happening, yet most people keep
  2658. relying on bankster-owned mainstream media for their "understanding"
  2659. of the world, and keep voting for the same old D and R
  2660. bankster-approved politicians, almost all of whom serve the
  2661. oligarchs regardless of party affiliation.
  2662.  
  2663. Control of the "education" system and mainstream media has played a
  2664. huge role in making this possible, but it's still obvious
  2665. nonetheless. So, why does it continue? Because of cognitive
  2666. dissonance, laziness, group think, and fear of being seen as an
  2667. "outsider" or worse yet a "conspiracy theorist."
  2668.  
  2669. The result is a political form of Stockholm Syndrome, and it will
  2670. soon lead to what Manhattan Project physicist Charles Galton Darwin
  2671. described as the perennial ruling elite goal: "A more perfect form
  2672. of slavery"... one in which the population is so perfectly
  2673. conditioned that they don't even recognize their own servitude. As
  2674. Aldous Huxley correctly predicted, they will be taught to "love
  2675. their servitude"... we're almost there."
  2676.  
  2677. ## [permalink #128](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post128) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sat 18 Jan 20 16:54_
  2678.  
  2679. (That last was posted with permission from its author.)
  2680.  
  2681. ## [permalink #129](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post129) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Renshin Bunce [(renshin)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sat 18 Jan 20 16:58_
  2682.  
  2683. ...and it's depressing as hell. I marched today, not because I think
  2684. this or any other march will change anything, but because I want it
  2685. on the record that I disagree with the government takeover that
  2686. we're living under currently.
  2687.  
  2688. ## [permalink #130](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post130) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sat 18 Jan 20 17:00_
  2689.  
  2690. I'm thinking I don't have a clue what's true anymore. We're in a
  2691. storm of conflicting narratives.
  2692.  
  2693. ## [permalink #131](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post131) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Administrivia [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sat 18 Jan 20 17:10_
  2694.  
  2695. Our MMXX State of the World jam is set to end Monday, which is
  2696. incidentally Martin Luther King Day in the USA.
  2697.  
  2698. Keep those cards and letters rolling in... inkwell at well.com.
  2699.  
  2700. Keep reading and keep sharing:[ https://bit.ly/sotw-2020](https://bit.ly/sotw-2020)
  2701.  
  2702. ## [permalink #132](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post132) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 19 Jan 20 01:52_
  2703.  
  2704. *It's hard to count the oligarchs here.  On the other hand, it makes
  2705. one understand why Putin would say that Soros is the same as
  2706. Prigozhin.  Every player involved in the Trump Ukraine racket thinks
  2707. that Soros is the same as Prigozhin.  That's they're consensus: it's
  2708. all about oligarch-on-oligarch culture war.
  2709.  
  2710. *No wonder the top Republican guy in the impeachment is actively
  2711. involved in the scheme at the same time that he dismisses the US
  2712. Congress as a side-show.
  2713.  
  2714. https://www.thedailybeast.com/lev-parnas-dishes-on-kushner-maduro-and-soros?re
  2715. [f=scroll](https://www.thedailybeast.com/lev-parnas-dishes-on-kushner-maduro-and-soros?ref=scroll)
  2716. “The consensus was that the reason Trump had the Russiagate and
  2717. everything that was happening was because Soros and the Democrats
  2718. controlled certain U.S. embassies in Eastern Europe, particularly
  2719. the Ukrainian one, and were able to help with the Manafort stuff and
  2720. all other kinds of stuff that basically caused problems in the Trump
  2721. World,” he said.
  2722.  
  2723. So the effort to influence Zelensky’s administration included
  2724. machinations against Soros, he said—in particular, to push Zelensky
  2725. to distance himself from people perceived to be close to
  2726. billionaire. That push and the push for political favors for Trump
  2727. were one and the same, he said. In retrospect, Parnas said, the
  2728. Soros focus grew out of an atmosphere he described as cult-like.
  2729.  
  2730. When asked if he believed his former allies’ claims about the
  2731. billionaire, he said he got sucked in at the time.
  2732.  
  2733. “When you’ve got the president saying it, you’ve got his attorneys
  2734. saying it, you’ve got all these congressmen saying it, you’ve got
  2735. all these senators saying it—again, when I say Trumpworld, that
  2736. small inner-whatever, everybody would talk about it: ‘This Soros
  2737. guy.’ That’s why I look at it as a cult.” (((It's sort of like a
  2738. "cult," but it's a lot more like a group of courtiers who hang out
  2739. with an oligarch.  They're not supposed to be swayed by public
  2740. opinion, their whole purpose is in serving oligarchy.)))
  2741. Soros, a survivor of the Holocaust, has regularly been portrayed as
  2742. a super-villian in Kremlin propaganda, and some of Trump’s allies
  2743. have echoed that description as the president’s impeachment troubles
  2744. have grown. DiGenova sparked outrage just last month after claiming
  2745. Soros “controls” the State Department....
  2746.  
  2747. ## [permalink #133](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post133) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 19 Jan 20 02:01_
  2748.  
  2749. *Not looking real perky in the Libyan "peace talks." The pro-Russian
  2750. side just shut off the oil flow while the pro-Turkish side is flying
  2751. in hundreds, maybe thousands, of armed Syrian war veterans.
  2752.  
  2753. *The twenty-first century's terror-war never exactly ends, but it
  2754. does tend to migrate from place to place.  Maybe the future really
  2755. is about Africa, after an entire generation of the Mideast getting
  2756. torn-up.
  2757.  
  2758. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security-envoy-idUSKBN1ZH0AQ
  2759.  
  2760. ## [permalink #134](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post134) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 19 Jan 20 02:09_
  2761.  
  2762. This Deloitte tech-trends publication is interesting because of its
  2763. bold lack of objectivity about the future.  On the contrary, it's
  2764. full of free ads for Deloitte clients of the C-level who appear with
  2765. head-shots say stuff like, "oh yeah, we believe totally in
  2766. (buzzword), we think it's great."
  2767.  
  2768. Of course Deloitte are just consultants, so maybe the tech-trends in
  2769. tech trends will be to get more to the point.  I can imagine a
  2770. Chinese Politguro approved tech trends where Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent
  2771. and maybe Huawei all appear on the same page and declare, "Well,
  2772. these are the tech trends because we're going to MAKE them the tech
  2773. trends."  Like, twenty-first century futurism with Chinese
  2774. characteristics.
  2775.  
  2776. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/focus/tech-trends.html
  2777.  
  2778. ## [permalink #135](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post135) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 19 Jan 20 02:55_
  2779.  
  2780. *I can't possibly let a State of the World MMXX go by without some
  2781. mention of this fantastic Dominic Cummings meditation.  Cummings is
  2782. a top political advisor to Boris Johnson.
  2783.  
  2784. *The whole thing is good, with a lot of extravagant links to weird
  2785. things that a modern political operative ought to properly know.  
  2786. Then it ends with this declaration that he wants to hire characters
  2787. from science fiction novels.  Since there's no way Cummings can
  2788. actually do that, it's more the declaration that he WANTS to do
  2789. that, which is interesting.  
  2790. *A virtual character like the Idoru from William Gibson's "Idoru," a
  2791. modern government might be able to generate and hire a fictional
  2792. character like that.  As press secretary, for instance. Or a
  2793. completely fake Dominic Cummings, a political expert that you claim
  2794. to have on staff, but is not really there.
  2795.  
  2796. https://dominiccummings.com/2020/01/02/two-hands-are-a-lot-were-hiring-data-sc
  2797. [ientists-project-managers-policy-experts-assorted-weirdos/](https://dominiccummings.com/2020/01/02/two-hands-are-a-lot-were-hiring-data-scientists-project-managers-policy-experts-assorted-weirdos/)
  2798. "G. Super-talented weirdos
  2799. "People in SW1 talk a lot about ‘diversity’ but they rarely mean
  2800. ‘true cognitive diversity’. They are usually babbling about ‘gender
  2801. identity diversity blah blah’. What SW1 needs is not more drivel
  2802. about ‘identity’ and ‘diversity’ from Oxbridge humanities graduates
  2803. but more genuine cognitive diversity.
  2804.  
  2805. "We need some true wild cards, artists, people who never went to
  2806. university and fought their way out of an appalling hell hole,
  2807. weirdos from William Gibson novels like that girl hired by Bigend as
  2808. a brand ‘diviner’ who feels sick at the sight of Tommy Hilfiger or
  2809. that Chinese-Cuban free runner from a crime family hired by the KGB.
  2810.  
  2811. If you want to figure out what characters around Putin might do, or
  2812. how international criminal gangs might exploit holes in our border
  2813. security, you don’t want more Oxbridge English graduates who chat
  2814. about Lacan at dinner parties with TV producers and spread fake news
  2815. about fake news.
  2816.  
  2817. "By definition I don’t really know what I’m looking for but I want
  2818. people around No10 to be on the lookout for such people.
  2819.  
  2820. "We need to figure out how to use such people better without asking
  2821. them to conform to the horrors of ‘Human Resources’ (which also
  2822. obviously need a bonfire)."
  2823.  
  2824. *And, for good measure, here's a recent piece from British offshored
  2825. SF writer and journalist, about how the science fiction of the
  2826. 1980s, set in the 2020s, differs from the actual 2020s.  Some food
  2827. for thought here.  Am I sorry I did it, now that a lot of it looks
  2828. pretty goofy?  No. Not really.  On the contrary, it makes me want to
  2829. write something about the 2060s.
  2830.  
  2831. https://onezero.medium.com/how-science-fiction-imagined-the-2020s-f8e98a5bc729
  2832.  
  2833. ## [permalink #136](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post136) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 19 Jan 20 04:13_
  2834.  
  2835. Alberto Cottica remarks:
  2836. I enjoyed the broad, grim sweep of Bruce’s “everywhere is kind of
  2837. the same” in Posts 5 to 7. But I wonder: where does that leave the
  2838. European Union? That’s the one polity that can never go
  2839. ethno-nationalist, not without completely disintegrating. I live in
  2840. Brussels, with maybe half a foot in the Eurosphere. From where I
  2841. stand I can see the EU shudder and lurch, but to be honest I have no
  2842. idea where all this is going. The EU does seem to have a chance to
  2843. do something completely different – almost an obligation to do so,
  2844. just by sheer inertia in a world that has suddenly changed its
  2845. direction. The buzzwords are getting weirder (“Green EU Deal”,
  2846. “Internet of Humans”), and von der Leyen is still mostly an unknown
  2847. quantity.
  2848.  
  2849. Any intuition to share from you guys?
  2850.  
  2851. *It's all about Margrethe Vestager, the EU digital czarina.  She's
  2852. basically the only entity in modern tech that looks like governance.
  2853.  
  2854. *I follow Margrethe in social media and I gaze in mild wonderment at
  2855. everything she does... I think her aim is to tame Big Tech into an
  2856. enterprise that is more like aerospace.  Meaning Airbus style
  2857. aerospace, not like that American Boeing junk that falls out of the
  2858. sky.  
  2859. She's one of Europe's best technocrats. Pick of the litter, really.
  2860.  
  2861. She's one of the least-scary power-players in modern politics.  If I
  2862. got email from Vestager, I wouldn't dive under the couch, I'd be
  2863. inclined to listen with care and be all cordial.  Whereas, if I got
  2864. email from Prigozhin, I'd be updating my will.
  2865.  
  2866. *With that said, though, there's something rather "curator" like
  2867. about Margrethe Vestager. It's like EU democratic politics just
  2868. sorta gave up and decided to let Margrethe handle everything because
  2869. actual governance  just gets in the way.
  2870.  
  2871. ## [permalink #137](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post137) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 19 Jan 20 06:25_
  2872.  
  2873. Cory Docotorow waxes techno-utopian:
  2874. https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2020/jan/17/the-case-for-cities-where-youre
  2875. [-the-sensor-not-the-thing-being-sensed](https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2020/jan/17/the-case-for-cities-where-youre-the-sensor-not-the-thing-being-sensed)
  2876. "The case for ... cities that aren't dystopian surveillance states"
  2877. "If we decide to treat people as sensors, and not as things to be
  2878. sensed – if we observe Kant’s injunction that humans should be
  2879. 'treated as an end in themselves and not as a means to something
  2880. else' – then we can modify the smart city to gather information
  2881. about the things and share that information with the people."
  2882.  
  2883. City centers in large and popular metropolitan areas are starting to
  2884. feel more like theme parks. The people who live downtown pay seven
  2885. figures for condos in multiuse highrises. Tour guides are always
  2886. waxing nostalgic about how the city used to be a friendly and
  2887. affordable town, before the gods of commerce created the new digital
  2888. weather systems, raining profit on corporations.  Smart cities are
  2889. not smart for everybody. Ask the guy living in a box under the
  2890. bridge how smart he thinks the city is.
  2891.  
  2892. ## [permalink #138](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post138) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 19 Jan 20 07:26_
  2893.  
  2894. Firehose media feed from Apple News, one of many sources of
  2895. patchwork news. Just part of today's feed, no wonder my head is
  2896. spinning:
  2897. Impeachment impeachment impeachment.
  2898.  
  2899. Amish sex scandals.
  2900.  
  2901. Meghxit
  2902. Immodium abuse
  2903. Conor McGregor's latest "ultimate fight"
  2904. Kidnapped teen snapchats a clue leading to her recovery
  2905. Trump's grudges
  2906. The FBI can unlock some phones, but not others
  2907. Ageotypes
  2908. Groom sexually assaults waitress at his wedding reception
  2909. GirlsDoPorn is no more
  2910. Trump "loves America" but hates American cities
  2911. Mrs. Maisel is marvelous
  2912. Amber Heard has a girlfriend
  2913. Kim Kardashian as criminal justice reformer
  2914. Casper, a mattress company that is a tech company
  2915. Roomba deals!
  2916.  
  2917. SpaceX launch
  2918. Apple's iPhone 12
  2919. Behringer clones synths from Moog to Roland
  2920. Police robots are not smart
  2921. Great USB hub!
  2922.  
  2923. The most excellent egg sandwich
  2924. Nazi propaganda in Brazil
  2925. Medicaid block grants
  2926. One Trump lawyer called another "dangerous"
  2927. Marlin Kemmerer wanted to hold Congress hostage in 1932
  2928. Biden Biden Biden
  2929. Bernie and Trump have something(s) in common
  2930. Guiliani ranting
  2931. Trump's legal wranglings.
  2932.  
  2933. Rebel Wilson lost weight
  2934. Reba McEntire is down for a "Tremors" reboot
  2935. US Companies pushing green energy in Europe
  2936. Google Home's music setup
  2937. Microsoft's new browser
  2938. Natural alternative to diet pills
  2939. Lose weight fast!
  2940.  
  2941. Superfoods
  2942. Carb myths
  2943. Diagnosing flu
  2944. Giant squid
  2945. Hemorrhoid remedies
  2946. Coronavirus
  2947. Binaural beats
  2948. Relocating feisty lions
  2949. China phases out single use plastics
  2950. Wild bears in Alaska
  2951. Tunisia curbs coastal erosion
  2952. Solar power in Qatar
  2953. Daytrips
  2954.  
  2955. ## [permalink #139](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post139) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Lena via lendie [(lendie)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 19 Jan 20 08:19_
  2956.  
  2957. How is it that central and South America never are part of these
  2958. discourses?
  2959.  
  2960. So much going on there -countries like Venezuela imploding, native
  2961. tribes taking big corps to court, Amazon heading to ecological
  2962. disaster, how climate change is affecting the continent,
  2963. reforestation efforts where land has been logged out, oil industry
  2964. no longer pumping out revenues, general political governance heading
  2965. more and more to the right and cartels running Mexico - that’s all
  2966. off the top of my head.
  2967.  
  2968. I mean, jeez, if you wanna be all grim and depressed, take some big
  2969. looks there.
  2970.  
  2971. ## [permalink #140](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post140) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce McLaughlin [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Sun 19 Jan 20 17:10_
  2972.  
  2973. > Via email from Bruce McLaughlin:
  2974. In his book, “Capitalism in the 21st Century,” Thomas PIketty
  2975. suggests that wide income disparity with a small group at the top is
  2976. the equilibrium state of capitalism. Events where large amounts of
  2977. capital are destroyed (wars, depressions, disasters, etc.) knock the
  2978. system out of equilibrium. What happens afterwards is that capital
  2979. owners have to pay people to rebuild (growth), rather than charging
  2980. them as much as possible for being alive (rent seeking).
  2981.  
  2982. With this theory he explains the post WWII prosperity in Europe,
  2983. Japan, and the US, along with the post WWII, Civil War, Famine, and
  2984. another Civil War prosperity of China. China was in the right phase
  2985. of development to be low bidder on the job of making a smartphone
  2986. for everybody on the planet, which extended their prosperity. They
  2987. are heading back to equilibrium now.
  2988.  
  2989. What makes the current cycle different from older cycles like the
  2990. Gilded Age in the US? Computers, cheap and fast communication and
  2991. transportation, cheap and deadly weapons. How will the oligarchs use
  2992. these new capabilities in the next decade? It’s not going to be
  2993. pretty...
  2994.  
  2995. ## [permalink #141](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post141) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Mon 20 Jan 20 02:00_
  2996.  
  2997. *Well, it seems that everybody in the world agrees that the Libyans
  2998. ought to stop fighting, including the Russians, the Turks and even
  2999. the Libyan factions.  I hate to play the cynic here, because it
  3000. would be great to see an oil war negotiated away.  "Peace Breaks Out
  3001. in MMXX," that would be fabulous news.
  3002.  
  3003. *However, I have a sneaking suspicion that this cordial national
  3004. paperwork implies that the situation is about to explode with
  3005. extra-national proxy actors.  I'd be happy to be proven wrong.
  3006.  
  3007. *At least The Donald's not involved, so who knows, maybe this Berlin
  3008. agreement really is good news for the state of our world.
  3009.  
  3010. *It's also of considerable interest that Prime Minister Boris
  3011. Johnson would simply stroll up to Putin face to face in Berlin and
  3012. tell Putin to knock it off with poisoning people (at least in
  3013. Britain).  Of course everybody knows Putin did that, while Johnson
  3014. lives in his own fantasy world and will riff nonsense at any length
  3015. about anything.  Still, it's odd that BoJo would just,
  3016. undiplomatically, truth-bomb that in a way, and in venue,  where all
  3017. the heavy players would overhear.  Boris Johnson is truly a strange
  3018. guy.  If his underling wants to recruit "super-talented weirdos,"
  3019. he'll have a hard time hiring someone weirder than the boss.
  3020.  
  3021. ## [permalink #142](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post142) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Mon 20 Jan 20 02:02_
  3022.  
  3023. *Some of the Libya reportage from "Politico Europe."
  3024.  
  3025. "DIPLOMACY STILL WORKS: The international community, or at least the
  3026. parts that are most influential in Libya, agreed on a 55-point,
  3027. nine-page document at a conference hosted by German Chancellor
  3028. Angela Merkel in Berlin on Sunday. They call for the return to a
  3029. political process in the country, and most importantly, say they
  3030. will refrain from military interventions and respect the arms
  3031. embargo in place. The signatories include Russia, Turkey, Egypt and
  3032. the Emirates — which were represented at the highest level. Here
  3033. are the conclusions."
  3034.  
  3035. (((There's the pdf of the English-language version of the new
  3036. treaty.  It's odd to be in an era where they just pop up and you can
  3037. thumb through 'em for yourself.)))
  3038. https://www.bundeskanzlerin.de/resource/blob/656734/1713866/7982684117074dea50
  3039. [70983ebb136249/2020-01-19-berlin-conference-on-libya-data.pdf](https://www.bundeskanzlerin.de/resource/blob/656734/1713866/7982684117074dea5070983ebb136249/2020-01-19-berlin-conference-on-libya-data.pdf)
  3040. "Now the hard(er) part: Following up, implementing and guaranteeing
  3041. the agreement holds will be the next — difficult — task; EU foreign
  3042. ministers will attempt to do so as early as today at a meeting in
  3043. Brussels...."  (((Every government finds it easy to agree on
  3044. not-shipping arms, because all the arms-shipping is being done by
  3045. "curators," not governments.  There's a rumor that the current
  3046. leader of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, may be appointed by Putin as a
  3047. kind of satrap of Syrian and Libyan affairs.  If so, well, that
  3048. Kadyrov guy's a complete savage.  He's up for anything.)))
  3049. "Putin also squeezed in a tête-à-tête with British PM Boris Johnson,
  3050. who told him that Britain is still furious over the attempted
  3051. assassination of former Russian intelligence officer Sergei
  3052. Skripal in Salisbury in March 2018, and that U.K.-Russia relations
  3053. can’t return to normal yet."
  3054.  
  3055. ## [permalink #143](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post143) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): The ineluctable modality of the risible. [(patf)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Mon 20 Jan 20 12:26_
  3056.  
  3057. Libya's oil reserves, esp. with US fracked oil now in the global
  3058. equation, aren't considerable - at least in terms of the world price
  3059. of oil or geostrategically generally - so I assume the interest of
  3060. Libya, in particular for Russia, but Turkey as well, is as one more
  3061. lever that might destabilize Europe.  And not just for Libyans
  3062. leaving the country, since that population isn't large (Libya has a
  3063. population of only 6.375 mln.), but in particular other people
  3064. elsewhere in Africa (or futher east in the ME even as far as
  3065. Afghanistan) who want to flee to Europe.
  3066.  
  3067. https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/italian-foreign-minister-luigi-di-m
  3068. [aio-europe-stands-to-lose-the-most-a-a4453de7-d1e8-464b-b220-c3cbbd153cab](https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/italian-foreign-minister-luigi-di-maio-europe-stands-to-lose-the-most-a-a4453de7-d1e8-464b-b220-c3cbbd153cab)
  3069. There are currently 700,000 migrants in the country who want to go
  3070. elsewhere and that can pretty much only be Europe.
  3071.  
  3072. I imagine Johnson is feeling vindicated and in a position of
  3073. strength given the Conservatives' powerful December electoral
  3074. victory.  Labor in disarray, etc.
  3075.  
  3076. ## [permalink #144](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post144) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Lena via lendie [(lendie)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Mon 20 Jan 20 18:19_
  3077. <rant on>
  3078. You guys should be ashamed of yourselves.  White guys pontificating
  3079. about the state of the world leaving out half the world - curiously
  3080. the brown and black part - Latin America and Africa.  I've begun to
  3081. suspect this is partically ignored because it is outside your
  3082. comfort zones or knowledge zones or interest zones so half the world
  3083. simply doesn't appear on the globes that you look at.
  3084.  
  3085. You could write a state of the world based on the Amazon and I'd bet
  3086. it *would* be a state of the world.  The environmental and
  3087. ecological issues alone affect the entire planet.
  3088.  
  3089. Latin America and Africa may not be the players of your world but
  3090. god knows without them there wouldn't be much of your world.  They
  3091. are exploited by the world you speak of - Eurocentric, US, Putin (do
  3092. you call it Russia these days, heck if I know or care), China,
  3093. Middle East Oil.  
  3094. This other half of the world is starving, much without potable
  3095. water, just barely surviving, without agency.  Latin America doesn't
  3096. have refugees, Africa has those.
  3097.  
  3098. You can talk about oil yet here and getting closer is a huge water
  3099. problem that could instigate wars.  There isn't enough and more
  3100. there isn't enough clean water without toxins.  Australia is already
  3101. in the throes of dealing with this - desalination projects happening
  3102. or in the works.  Who's the likely leader and knowledge center?
  3103.  
  3104. Israel.
  3105.  
  3106. What about looking at the state of the world through humanity?  One
  3107. that has decreasing empathy, increasingly tolerates sociopathy, has
  3108. less and less sense of the common good and welfare and increasingly
  3109. creates tribes (special interest groups) pitting themselves against
  3110. each other (or manipulate a la "Let's you and him fight")thus losing
  3111. what agency they had in the larger view, one that uses chemicals and
  3112. toxins to grow foods at the same time as they destroy the earth they
  3113. use?
  3114.  
  3115. Where is love or kindness or compassion in any of these worlds?
  3116.  
  3117. How about discussing these things?
  3118.  
  3119. <rant off>
  3120.  
  3121. ## [permalink #145](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post145) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Renshin Bunce [(renshin)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Mon 20 Jan 20 19:29_
  3122.  
  3123. (Cheering)
  3124.  
  3125. ## [permalink #146](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post146) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Tiffany Lee Brown (T) [(magdalen)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Mon 20 Jan 20 19:43_
  3126.  
  3127. bravo, lendie! wow.
  3128.  
  3129. yes. i want to hear about that state of the world, or the state of that
  3130. world.
  3131.  
  3132. ## [permalink #147](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post147) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 21 Jan 20 02:25_
  3133.  
  3134. Hey, <lendie>, thanks for the rant! I would feel more ashamed if I
  3135. pretended any kind of expertise about the Global South, but we
  3136. certainly welcome contributions like yours.
  3137.  
  3138. The true "state of the world" is so much more than any of us can
  3139. grasp. I often feel like the blind man who happened to grab the
  3140. elephant's rectum, the world being so much more than I can ever
  3141. know, the awesome and terrifying breadth of global diversity. If we
  3142. think we know the world because we "read the news," we're just
  3143. kidding ourselves.
  3144.  
  3145. Especially if we think we know something because we were watching
  3146. Fox News, or MSNBC, or CNN, which are all about divisive politics.
  3147.  
  3148. Those cable channels facilitate by attention and misrepresentation
  3149. the power of the corrupt and unhinged.
  3150.  
  3151. The exclusion of the Global South is unfortunately too common...
  3152.  
  3153. check out
  3154. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/15/opinion/politics-global-south.html
  3155. "... the global South has often been well outside the spotlight.
  3156.  
  3157. Much of our global attention and reporting have been focused on the
  3158. deceptions and distortions afflicting elections in the industrial
  3159. West, such as those that unfolded amid the U.S. presidential race in
  3160. 2016.
  3161.  
  3162. "There is a grave danger in overlooking the consequences of this
  3163. inattention, not only in terms of global democratization and
  3164. democratic consolidation, but also in the specific ways the use of
  3165. social media is impacting democratic processes in the South."
  3166.  
  3167. ## [permalink #148](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post148) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Lena via lendie [(lendie)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 21 Jan 20 02:38_
  3168.  
  3169. So how are you going to change this next year?
  3170.  
  3171. ## [permalink #149](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post149) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 21 Jan 20 04:51_
  3172.  
  3173. Uhm, Libya is in Africa.
  3174.  
  3175. Venezuela is a kind of South American Libya.  Maybe some day someone
  3176. will write a definitive history about their endless panoply of
  3177. curses and disorders.  It's frankly beyond me.
  3178.  
  3179. ## [permalink #150](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page06.html#post150) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 21 Jan 20 05:02_
  3180.  
  3181. It seems that Holly Herndon and Mat Dryhurst will not be able to
  3182. join us (unless they show up afterward for a post-midnight set).
  3183.  
  3184. They got caught up in touring to support the new album.   It’s a
  3185. pity, because as musicians go they’re about the most erudite and
  3186. chatty ones that I’ve ever met.
  3187.  
  3188. As for next year, maybe Lauren Beukes could be persuaded to show up.
  3189.  
  3190. She’s the most cyberpunk South African ever.  Also, her new sci-fi
  3191. short story collection “Slipping” is pretty good.
  3192.  
  3193. I’m a little embarrassed that I didn’t say more this year about the
  3194. ongoing ruckus in India.  I met some science fiction writers in
  3195. Bangalore last year, so now I kinda know what gives with them
  3196. social-media-wise, and man are they upset in MMXX.  I’ve never seen
  3197. such politically ticked-off science fiction writers.  They’re
  3198. yelling their heads off, but everybody’s too busy impeaching
  3199. Presidents or breaking up Europe to keep up with India.  Or Hong
  3200. Kong either, where the intelligentsia are smoldering every day.
  3201.  
  3202. ## [permalink #151](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post151) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 21 Jan 20 05:17_
  3203.  
  3204. After the State of the World closes, I’ll be devoting some attention
  3205. to jury duties for our electronic art festival in Turin, “Share
  3206. Festival.”  The theme for MMXX is “Riots: Here We Are.”
  3207. A rather apt and timely theme, I hope you’ll agree.  There’s still a
  3208. week or so to send in entries if you are into the production of
  3209. net.art, device art, machine art, code art, generative art and that
  3210. good-old-fashioned formerly-new media.
  3211.  
  3212. https://www.toshareproject.it/call-for-share-prize-xiii-edition-riots-here-we-
  3213. [are/](https://www.toshareproject.it/call-for-share-prize-xiii-edition-riots-here-we-are/)
  3214. And if you’re up for the big time of tech art, why not “Ars
  3215. Electronica”?  It’s got the “Golden Nica,” the Oscar of the tech art
  3216. world.  
  3217. ******
  3218. Prix Ars Electronica 2020
  3219. Submit your entry now to the most traditional media art competition
  3220. in the world!
  3221.  
  3222. The following categories will be announced for the 2020 Prix Ars
  3223. Electronica:
  3224. Computer Animation, Digital Communities, Interactive Art + and u19 -
  3225. create your world.
  3226.  
  3227. The winners will receive the prestigious Golden Nicas, prize money
  3228. of up to 10,000 euros per category and a prominent appearance at the
  3229. Ars Electronica Festival in Linz
  3230. (9 to 13 September 2020).
  3231.  
  3232. You can find out how to submit or nominate your artistic project at
  3233. ars.electronica.art/prix! The submission deadline is March 2, 2020.
  3234.  
  3235. The participation is free of charge.
  3236.  
  3237. Since 1987, the Prix Ars Electronica has been held annually for
  3238. media artists from around the world. You’ll be able to find out
  3239. which Prix jurors the many artists will be able to present this year
  3240. and which projects have been submitted and awarded prizes on our Ars
  3241. Electronica Blog.
  3242.  
  3243. We are looking forward to your submission and wish you good luck!
  3244.  
  3245. Your Ars Electronica Team
  3246. *****
  3247. Every year I do this jury work, and really, the panoply of ingenuity
  3248. there always impressed me and raises my morale.  So many strange,
  3249. creative, inventive things from a some basement, some attic, some
  3250. home-made lab in the corner of whateverness.  It gives me a baseline
  3251. faith in the resilience of humanity.   Not that things are always
  3252. good —that’s too much to ask — but that they’re always interesting.
  3253.  
  3254. ## [permalink #152](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post152) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 21 Jan 20 09:40_
  3255.  
  3256. It's been two weeks; this is when we normally end the conversation.
  3257.  
  3258. But it's a soft stop, the topic is open for more posts. Feel free to
  3259. continue.
  3260.  
  3261. Thanks to all who've contributed, from on or off the WELL. Hopefully
  3262. we're all gaining insight. It's been a bit bleak this year... the
  3263. pendulum's swung to a dark place. But we're here for each other, and
  3264. we can always hope...
  3265.  
  3266. ## [permalink #153](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post153) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Angie Coiro [(coiro)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 21 Jan 20 10:07_
  3267.  
  3268. That's lovely, Jon. Thanks for that thought.
  3269.  
  3270. ## [permalink #154](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post154) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jon Lebkowsky [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 21 Jan 20 15:06_
  3271.  
  3272. (Blushing!)
  3273.  
  3274. ## [permalink #155](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post155) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): George Mokray [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 21 Jan 20 15:07_
  3275.  
  3276. > Via email from George Mokray:
  3277. If you want to know how to save coral reefs, you shouldv  talk to
  3278. Tom Goreau of the Global Coral Reef Alliance
  3279. (http://globalcoral.org).  Tom uses Wolf Hilbertz' biorock
  3280. technology which should make Bruce Sterling happy as he uses the
  3281. idea in one of his novels.  Tom is also one of the leaders of the
  3282. geotherapy (NOT geoengineering) community.
  3283.  
  3284. ## [permalink #156](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post156) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jane Hirshfield [(jh)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Tue 21 Jan 20 18:17_
  3285.  
  3286. I came late to reading this this year, and just want to thank Jon,
  3287. Bruce, and everyone who came in with some really substantial
  3288. questions and comments and perceptions.
  3289.  
  3290. The dark mood feels right to me, given the state of the world, and
  3291. any glimmer of reason to hope (as the post just before this is, as
  3292. well as Jon's) is greatly appreciated.
  3293.  
  3294. ## [permalink #157](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post157) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Bruce Sterling [(bruces)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 22 Jan 20 01:21_
  3295.  
  3296. Thirty-three years of Boing Boing.  Nobody's perfect, and things
  3297. don't always go well, but there's a lot to be said for tenacity.  
  3298. *And the long-standing WELL, too, may it find favor among the gods;
  3299. when the WELL was a bulletin-board-system, I once found its server
  3300. and sat on it.
  3301.  
  3302. https://boingboing.net/2020/01/21/boing-boing-is-20-or-33-year.html
  3303. With any kind of luck, we'll be back next year.
  3304.  
  3305. ## [permalink #158](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post158) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): John Spears [(banjojohn)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 23 Jan 20 08:43_
  3306.  
  3307. Btw, what will historians call this age?
  3308.  
  3309. The Anti-enlightenment?
  3310.  
  3311. The Age of Fake?(from fake news to fake impeachment trails, etc)
  3312.  
  3313. ## [permalink #159](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post159) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): those Andropovian bongs [(rik)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 23 Jan 20 08:59_
  3314.  
  3315. I'm not so sure there will be historians all that much longer.
  3316.  
  3317. ## [permalink #160](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post160) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): David Gans [(tnf)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 23 Jan 20 09:34_
  3318.  
  3319. The Great Endarkenment
  3320.  
  3321. ## [permalink #161](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post161) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Jane Hirshfield [(jh)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 23 Jan 20 11:05_
  3322.  
  3323. Or if we may be extremely lucky as well as extremely proactive, The
  3324. Small Endarkenment.
  3325.  
  3326. (great phrase, gans)
  3327.  
  3328. ## [permalink #162](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post162) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): David Gans [(tnf)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 23 Jan 20 12:52_
  3329.  
  3330. It did not originate with me, but I put it into a song:
  3331. Endarkened forces are clamping down
  3332. On us unconfirming souls
  3333. Waving flags and bashing "fags"
  3334. And burning truth like coal
  3335. Now, I don't know but I've been told
  3336. The naming rights have all been sold
  3337. Hell is hot and heaven's cold, and
  3338. It's gonna get worse before it gets better
  3339. It's gonna get worse before it gets better
  3340. It's gonna get worse before it gets better
  3341. But I know it's gonna get better
  3342.  
  3343. ## [permalink #163](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post163) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): bill braasch [(bbraasch)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 23 Jan 20 13:23_
  3344.  
  3345. 2020 is our 35th year as well.sf.ca.us, aka well.com .
  3346.  
  3347. Chinese New Year begins this weekend.  Wrap up your loose ends, pay
  3348. your bills.  The Year of the Metal Rat, the start of a 12 year metal
  3349. cycle.
  3350.  
  3351. Anything you’d like to opine about rats or metal?  
  3352.  
  3353. ## [permalink #164](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post164) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): those Andropovian bongs [(rik)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 23 Jan 20 13:24_
  3354.  
  3355. I envy you your gift for your gift for words, and your optimism.
  3356.  
  3357. ## [permalink #165](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post165) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): those Andropovian bongs [(rik)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 23 Jan 20 13:25_
  3358.  
  3359. Slip.
  3360.  
  3361. ## [permalink #166](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post166) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): David Gans [(tnf)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Thu 23 Jan 20 16:59_
  3362.  
  3363. > and your optimism
  3364. "Hope is an obligation," as <mtheo> once said in a very different context.
  3365.  
  3366. ## [permalink #167](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post167) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): John Spears [(banjojohn)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Fri 24 Jan 20 13:08_
  3367.  
  3368. Thank you, Gans, the Endarkening is right on target, hopefully not
  3369. the Great Endarkening....
  3370.  
  3371. Great lyrics, too, but I can't say I feel the optimism expressed the
  3372. last line. I suspect that's part artistic license. I often think
  3373. about Dylan's lyric, penned a few years ago: "it's not dark yet, but
  3374. it's getting there...".
  3375.  
  3376. ## [permalink #168](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post168) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Stuart [(sjs)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Mon 27 Jan 20 05:39_
  3377.  
  3378. I met a young girl, she gave me a rainbow
  3379.  
  3380. ## [permalink #169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169) of [169](https://people.well.com/conf/inkwell.vue/topics/507/State-of-the-World-2020-Bruce-St-page07.html#post169): Vasilios Koronakis [(jonl)](https://people.well.com/truenames.html) _Wed 29 Jan 20 08:12_
  3381.  
  3382. > Via email from Vasilios Koronakis:
  3383. Bravo, bravo Lena! (re <inkwell.vue.507.144>)
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