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Coronavirus infection ballparking numbers

Dethraivn Mar 26th, 2020 69 Never
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  1. Ballpark of national cost of burial or cremation from mass death due to Coronavirus outbreak, not counting additional legal costs and funeral costs beyond those provided directly by funerary agencies.
  2.  
  3. Relevant figures:
  4.  
  5. National average cost of cremation alone: $1650, in 2017, according to CANA(Cremation Association of North America, the largest national organization for cremation practitioners).
  6.  
  7. National average cost of cremation without without viewing: $5,835 in 2017, according to NFDA(National Funeral Directors Association).
  8.  
  9. National average cost of cremation with viewing: $6,260 in 2017, according to NFDA.
  10.  
  11. National average cost of burial without viewing: $6,615 in 2017, according to NFDA.
  12.  
  13. National average cost of burial with viewing: $7,360 in 2017, according to NFDA.
  14.  
  15. Note: Total funeral costs are usually about double these figures, and any inheritance with or without a will that ends up contested will add legal fees on top of these numbers. This is also of course only factoring in funerary costs and thus does not include lost revenue due to the deaths. Will follow up rough ballpark estimates of that at the end.
  16.  
  17. National rate of cremation: 63.5% in 2020(projected), according to NFDA.
  18.  
  19. National rate of burial: 30.6% in 2020(projected), according to NFDA.
  20.  
  21. US population in 2020: 331 million
  22.  
  23. Average US annual income, $45,646 as of October 2019 according to US Bureau of Economic Analysis
  24.  
  25. **Global mortality rate: 4.4% as of March 24, 2020, according to WHO(World Health Organization).
  26. **US known* mortality rate: 1.4% as of March 23, 2020, according to Johns Hopkins University
  27. *True case and death numbers unknown due to shortage of testing kits, mortality rate unreliable.
  28. **If infection goes uncontrolled and insufficient medical care is provided current statistics have fatality rates above 10%, meaning more than double the shown projections of cost
  29.  
  30.  
  31. Infection and fatality numbers projected by WHO global mortality rate:
  32.  
  33. Assuming 10% infection: 33.1 million infected, 1.45 million dead
  34.  
  35. Assuming 20% infection: 66.2 million infected, 2.91 million dead
  36.  
  37. Assuming 30% infection: 99.3 million infected, 4.37 million dead
  38.  
  39. Assuming 40% infection: 132.4 million infected, 5.83 million dead
  40.  
  41. Assuming 50% infection: 165.5 million infected, 7.28 million dead
  42.  
  43. Assuming 60% infection: 198.6 million infected, 8.74 million dead
  44.  
  45. Assuming 70% infection*: 231.7 million infected, 10.2 million dead
  46.  
  47. Assuming 80% infection: 264.8 million infected, 11.65 million dead
  48.  
  49. Assuming 90% infection: 297.9 million infected, 13.11 million dead
  50.  
  51. *CDC predicted worst-case infection rate
  52.  
  53.  
  54. Infection and fatality numbers projected according by Johns Hopkins known national mortality rate:
  55.  
  56. Assuming 10% infection: 33.1 million infected, 463,000 dead
  57.  
  58. Assuming 20% infection: 66.2 million infected, 927,000 dead
  59.  
  60. Assuming 30% infection: 99.3 million infected, 1.39 million dead
  61.  
  62. Assuming 40% infection: 132.4 million infected, 1.85 million dead
  63.  
  64. Assuming 50% infection: 165.5 million infected, 2.32 million dead
  65.  
  66. Assuming 60% infection: 198.6 million infected, 2.78 million dead
  67.  
  68. Assuming 70% infection*: 231.7 million infected, 3.24 million dead
  69.  
  70. Assuming 80% infection: 264.8 million infected, 3.71 million dead
  71.  
  72. Assuming 90% infection: 297.9 million infected, 4.17 million dead
  73.  
  74. *CDC predicted worst-case infection rate
  75.  
  76.  
  77. Funerary costs of mass death according to WHO global mortality rate and NFDA projected 2020 burial to cremation rate, with viewings:
  78.  
  79. 10% infection: $9,033,300,000 ($9 billion)
  80. 921,000 cremations($5.8 billion), 444,000 burials($3.2 billion)
  81.  
  82. 20% infection: $18.12 billion
  83. 1.85 million cremations($11.57 billion), 890,000 burials($6.55 billion)
  84.  
  85. 30% infection: $27.21 billion
  86. 2.77 million cremations($17.37 billion), 1.34 million burials($9.84 billion)
  87.  
  88. 40% infection: $36.3 billion
  89. 3.7 million cremations($23.17 billion), 1.78 million burials($13.13 billion)
  90.  
  91. 50% infection: $45.33 billion
  92. 4.62 million cremations($28.94 billion), 2.23 million burials($16.39 billion)
  93.  
  94. 60% infection: $54.42 billion
  95. 5.55 million cremations($34.74 billion), 2.67 million burials($19.68 billion)
  96.  
  97. 70% infection: $63.52 billion
  98. 6.48 million cremations($40.55 billion), 3.12 million burials($22.97 billion)
  99.  
  100. 80% infection: $72.54 billion
  101. 7.4 million cremations($46.3 billion), 3.57 million burials($26.24 billion)
  102.  
  103. 90% infection: $81.64 billion
  104. 8.33 million cremations($52.11 billion), 4.01 million burials($29.53 billion)
  105.  
  106.  
  107. Funerary costs of mass death according to WHO global mortality rate and NFDA projected 2020 burial to cremation rate, without viewings:
  108.  
  109. 10% infection: $8.31 billion
  110. 921,000 cremations($5.37 billion), 444,000 burials($2.94 billion)
  111.  
  112. 20% infection: $16.68 billion
  113. 1.85 million cremations($10.79 billion), 890,000 burials($5.89 billion)
  114.  
  115. 30% infection: $25.02 billion
  116. 2.77 million cremations($16.16 billion), 1.34 million burials($8.86 billion)
  117.  
  118. 40% infection: $33.36 billion
  119. 3.7 million cremations($21.59 billion), 1.78 million burials($11.77 billion)
  120.  
  121. 50% infection: $41.75 billion
  122. 4.62 million cremations($27 billion), 2.23 million burials($14.75 billion)
  123.  
  124. 60% infection: $50.04 billion
  125. 5.55 million cremations($32.38 billion), 2.67 million burials($17.66 billion)
  126.  
  127. 70% infection: $58.45 billion
  128. 6.48 million cremations($37.81 billion), 3.12 million burials($20.64 billion)
  129.  
  130. 80% infection: $66.8 billion
  131. 7.4 million cremations($43.18 billion), 3.57 million burials($23.62 billion)
  132.  
  133. 90% infection: $75.14 billion
  134. 8.33 million cremations($48.61 billion), 4.01 million burials($26.53 billion)
  135.  
  136.  
  137. Funerary costs of mass death according to WHO global mortality rate and NFDA cremation cost with viewings:
  138.  
  139. 10% infection: $9.08 billion
  140.  
  141. 20% infection: $18.22 billion
  142.  
  143. 30% infection: $27.36 billion
  144.  
  145. 40% infection: $36.5 billion
  146.  
  147. 50% infection: $45.57 billion
  148.  
  149. 60% infection: $54.71 billion
  150.  
  151. 70% infection: $63.85 billion
  152.  
  153. 80% infection: $72.93 billion
  154.  
  155. 90% infection: $82.07 billion
  156.  
  157.  
  158.  
  159. Funerary costs of mass death according to WHO global mortality rate and NFDA cremation cost without viewings:
  160.  
  161. 10% infection: $8.46 billion
  162.  
  163. 20% infection: $16.98 billion
  164.  
  165. 30% infection: $25.5 billion
  166.  
  167. 40% infection: $34.02 billion
  168.  
  169. 50% infection: $42.48 billion
  170.  
  171. 60% infection: $51 billion
  172.  
  173. 70% infection: $59.52 billion
  174.  
  175. 80% infection: $67.98 billion
  176.  
  177. 90% infection: $76.5 billion
  178.  
  179.  
  180.  
  181. Funerary costs of mass death according to WHO global mortality rate and CANA cremation cost alone:
  182.  
  183. 10% infection: $2.3 billion
  184.  
  185. 20% infection: $4.8 billion
  186.  
  187. 30% infection: $7.2 billion
  188.  
  189. 40% infection: $9.62 billion
  190.  
  191. 50% infection: $12.01 billion
  192.  
  193. 60% infection: $14.42 billion
  194.  
  195. 70% infection: $16.83 billion
  196.  
  197. 80% infection: $19.22 billion
  198.  
  199. 90% infection: $21.63 billion
  200.  
  201.  
  202. Funerary costs of mass death according to Johns Hopkins known national mortality rate and NFDA cremation cost with viewings:
  203.  
  204. 10% infection: $2.8 billion
  205.  
  206. 20% infection: $5.8 billion
  207.  
  208. 30% infection: $8.7 billion
  209.  
  210. 40% infection: $11.58 billion
  211.  
  212. 50% infection: $14.52 billion
  213.  
  214. 60% infection: $17.4 billion
  215.  
  216. 70% infection: $20.28 billion
  217.  
  218. 80% infection: $23.22 billion
  219.  
  220. 90% infection: $26.1 billion
  221.  
  222.  
  223.  
  224. Funerary costs of mass death according to Johns Hopkins known national mortality rate and NFDA cremation cost without viewings:
  225.  
  226. 10% infection: $2.7 billion
  227.  
  228. 20% infection: $5.41 billion
  229.  
  230. 30% infection: $8.11 billion
  231.  
  232. 40% infection: $10.79 billion
  233.  
  234. 50% infection: $13.54 billion
  235.  
  236. 60% infection: $16.22 billion
  237.  
  238. 70% infection: $18.9 billion
  239.  
  240. 80% infection: $21.65 billion
  241.  
  242. 90% infection: $24.33 billion
  243.  
  244.  
  245.  
  246. Funerary costs of mass death according to Johns Hopkins known national mortality rate and CANA cremation cost alone:
  247.  
  248. 10% infection: $763.95 million
  249.  
  250. 20% infection: $1.53 billion
  251.  
  252. 30% infection: $2.29 billion
  253.  
  254. 40% infection: $3.05 billion
  255.  
  256. 50% infection: $3.83 billion
  257.  
  258. 60% infection: $4.59 billion
  259.  
  260. 70% infection: $5.35 billion
  261.  
  262. 80% infection: $6.12 billion
  263.  
  264. 90% infection: $6.88 billion
  265.  
  266.  
  267.  
  268. Ballpark of income loss due to workforce depletion in year following deaths, based on national average income by US Bureau of Economic Analysis, giving an idea of GDP loss.*:
  269.  
  270. 10% infection(global fatality rate): $66.19 billion
  271.  
  272. 20% infection(global fatality rate): $132.83 billion
  273.  
  274. 30% infection(global fatality rate): $199.47 billion
  275.  
  276. 40% infection(global fatality rate): $266.12 billion
  277.  
  278. 50% infection(global fatality rate): $332.30 billion
  279.  
  280. 60% infection(global fatality rate): $398.95 billion
  281.  
  282. 70% infection(global fatality rate): $465.59 billion
  283.  
  284. 80% infection(global fatality rate): $531.78 billion
  285.  
  286. 90% infection(global fatality rate): $598.42 billion
  287.  
  288.  
  289. 10% infection(known national fatality rate): $21.13 billion
  290.  
  291. 20% infection(known national fatality rate): $42.31 billion
  292.  
  293. 30% infection(known national fatality rate): $63.43 billion
  294.  
  295. 40% infection(known national fatality rate): $84.43 billion
  296.  
  297. 50% infection(known national fatality rate): $105.9 billion
  298.  
  299. 60% infection(known national fatality rate): $126.9 billion
  300.  
  301. 70% infection(known national fatality rate): $147.89 billion
  302.  
  303. 80% infection(known national fatality rate): $169.35 billion
  304.  
  305. 90% infection(known national fatality rate): $190.34 billion
  306.  
  307.  
  308. * Should actually skew notably higher, since fatality rate skews toward higher age range which has a higher average income. Is also not counting loss of productivity due to shrunken overall workforce and emotional stresses in addition to loss of demand and skilled labor losses and the ripple effect that will have on companies and the overall economy due to the same skew toward higher age ranges.
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