Talonraker26/11/2018
So because I'm a good student, I spent Maths today coming up with a plan (or two... or three... or four...) for how to get out of this situation and kinda ended up with 700 words. This is it:
Let's start off with what we know: Max will flip on either me or Fairy tonight and try to recruit the other one for a 4-2 majority. Max also has an idol, which he will very likely play on himself, but may just go for a big play and try to play it on someone else to eliminate Fairy/me with no tiebreaker.
First off, Fairy, I know you said you didn't want to, but even so you may be tempted to backstab me since, well, it'd be so much easier than all the shit that could go wrong with any of my plans. But even disregarding the loyalty and trust we've shared all game, backstabbing me may not be as good an idea as it seems. Remember that Max said he wanted you out before FTC as well as me. If you vote me out here, this trio is broken and unless you win FIC you're probably gone. Of course, this reasoning also applies to me - backstabbing you is just as much a bad move for me as it is for you. That being said, if you don't feel confident I'll stay with you, feel free to tell Max you're willing to backstab me to get the target onto me. Just don't actually betray me and I won't hold it against you. If the three of us manage to stick together through this tribal, we all get a spot at FTC and theres nothing that can stop that.
Now, I have a few plans for different scenarios depending on who wins immunity.
Plan A: Go for the tiebreaker. We act ignorant of Max's backstab and tell him we're voting Scott then vote Top, he can't predict it to idol him and whoever has to go up against Top has a better chance of winning the tiebreaker. The vote ends 3-3 or 3-2-1 on the off-chance Max stays faithful.
*Plan A should be used if Max wins immunity.
Plan B: Try and get either Scott or Top to waste their votes. This would most likely be done by getting them to vote for an immune Grand. The problem is that we know about Grand's idol, and Grand knows we know about his idol. A small conversation with Grand could stop us in our tracks. However, an idea I'd like to play around with is faking that we have an idol negator and are using it on Grand. Maybe we could get Top on our side like that. It wouldn't take that much work to make it convincing, and we could win the vote 3-0-1 or 3-2-0.
Plan C: Try to bring either Scott or Top to our side. I can't really think of a way to do this. Offer Top free passage to F4? He has it anyway. Offer Scott free passage to F4? He won't trust us. Try to convince them they have to avoid rocks? Maybe, but if the hosts reveal its a tiebreaker publically or they ask we're just left back in a 3-3.
Finally, Plan D: Now this one is our desparate last resort, only to be used if Scott or Top win immunity. This would be awful for us, as Max can go for an idol on the other and eliminate me or Fairy. That's why I think we should go aggressive in this situation. We tell Max "Look, we know about your bullshit, so we're reducing this to 50/50. This vote is going on a dice roll between you and (whoever is left vulnerable of Top/Scott)." Now doing this would be incredibly brave, but I don't think Max would put it past me, especially since I already did it once in the game. Hearing this, he'd have to either call our bluff, which would be very risky, or idol himself - at that point saving Scott/Top just isn't worth the risk. We're left free to vote Top/Scott and bring it down to a tiebreaker.
No matter what we decide, for now we want to appear ignorant - act like Fairy and I haven't spoken to eachother about what Max told us, try to convincingly play along with him, and hope for the best.
I know this won't be easy, but hopefully we can do it. May Arceus be with us.