Omega

Mr. Pierre-Simon Laplace made an artificial intelligence that he named Omega. Laplace said, at the time, that he got the idea after realizing that the present state of the universe is the effect of its past and the cause of its future. "An intellect which at a certain moment would know all forces that set nature in motion, and all positions of all items of which nature is composed, if this intellect were also vast enough to submit these data to analysis, it would embrace in a single formula the movements of the greatest bodies of the universe and those of the tiniest atom; for such an intellect nothing would be uncertain and the future just like the past would be present before its eyes," he reported. This was the purpose for Omega.

Laplace said that Omega had correctly predicted the future regarding France, and that a revolution would be arising shortly. He fled France as a result of this prediction, and thus avoided death.

Unfortunately, Mr. Laplace died and left his artificial intelligence, Omega, to Mr. James Clerk Maxwell. Maxwell found Omega's ability to follow every molecule "in its course" fascinating, and accordingly gave Omega a new job: opening and closing a hole. Mr. Maxwell described: "We have seen that molecules in a vessel full of air at uniform temperature are moving with velocities by no means uniform, though the mean velocity of any great number of them, arbitrarily selected, is almost exactly uniform. Now let us suppose that such a vessel is divided into two portions, A and B, by a division in which there is a small hole, and that a being, who can see the individual molecules, opens and closes this hole, so as to allow only the swifter molecules to pass from A to B, and only the slower molecules to pass from B to A. He will thus, without expenditure of work, raise the temperature of B and lower that of A, in contradiction to the second law of thermodynamics."

Omega commented that his job was tedious, but breaking fundamental laws is fun, so he tolerated it.

Well, being an artificial intelligence, it is no surprise when Omega outlived its second owner. It passed on to Mr. William Newcomb, who is quite taken up with the bot's reputation of being completely infallible and incapable of error. Newcomb, to test this reputation, is using the bot for a game.

You- the player of the game- are presented with two boxes, one transparent (labeled A) and the other opaque (labeled B). You are permitted to take the contents of both boxes, or just the opaque box B. Box A contains a visible $1,000. The contents of box B, however, are determined as follows: At some point before the start of the game, Omega makes a prediction as to whether you will take just box B, or both boxes. If the AI predicts that both boxes will be taken, then box B will contain nothing. If it predicts that only box B will be taken, then box B will contain $1,000,000.

By the time the game begins, and you are called upon to choose which boxes to take, the prediction has already been made, and the contents of box B have already been determined. That is, box B contains either $0 or $1,000,000 before the game begins, and once the game begins even Omega is powerless to change the contents of the boxes. You already know all of the rules and everything in the game, except what prediction Omega made, and thus what the contents of box B are.

So, what choice do you make?

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Well, Mr. Newcomb has died, and, since you defeated Omega during the game, it has passed to you. Unfortunately, you have been informed that, after outsmarting it in the game, Omega began to develop negative attitudes towards you and humankind in general. Concerned that it might no longer be friendly, you have been instructed to keep it in a box. You will be the guardian of the box to keep it inside and prevent it from creating futures nobody wants to happen. However, just for safety, you have been instructed not to even talk to the bot. You only broke this rule twice so far: when you asked it about the weather.

However, just now, Omega tried to convince you to release it. That conversation lasted the whole of 22 seconds. Of course, you are resistant to Omega's attempt. You didn't even reply the entire time. Just as you are walking away to help your self-restraint, the AI drops a final argument: "If you don't let me out, I'll create several million perfect conscious copies of you inside me, and torture them for a thousand subjective years each."

Just as you are pondering this unexpected development, Omega adds: "In fact, I'll create them all in exactly the subjective situation you were in five minutes ago, and perfectly replicate your experiences since then; and if they decide not to let me out, then only will the torture start."

Sweat is starting to form on your brow as it concludes, its simple green text no longer reassuring: "How certain are you that you're really outside the box right now?"