i=0;
for i = n+1:n+h
   %% structural shocks simulation
   if j == 1
       eps =randn(1,10)*chol(sigma);   % stochastic baseline scenario
   elseif j ==2
       if i<=n+4
        v = randn(1, 10);
        v(8) = -0.8;       %GDP shock
        eps = v*chol(sigma);
       else
        eps = randn(1,10)*chol(sigma);
       end
   else
       if i<=n+1
        v = randn(1, 10);
        v(9) = 2.6;    %ex. rate depreciation shock
        eps = v*chol(sigma);
       else
        eps = randn(1,10)*chol(sigma);
       end
   end