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Sep 23rd, 2014
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  1. First off, we are nine months into the Ebola outbreak. It wasn't reported to WHO until March, but it began in December. Second, even if EVD cases began to head in the opposite trajectory tomorrow, (suddenly reversing to go down as fast as they're going up, which is an assumption completely detached from anything even close to something shaped like a rail) we'd still see another 5k cases. Third, its current trajectory isn't that, it is going up, faster than ever, in the history of the world (blew past that weeks ago), exponentially. Fourth, going down is hard, going up is unfortunately, more or less easy. Summary: a lot of people are going to die from Ebola. Anything less than 10,000 more cases is an unbelievable best case scenario. 100,000+ cases is well within the current epidemiological estimates. Even the optimistic ones. Even assuming the scale up in response that is occurring.
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  3. tl;dr: Shit's bad. ISIS? Fuck ISIS.
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  5. Okay. Do whatever with ISIS I guess. But Ebola. WHO declared it an unprecedented public health disaster weeks ago. Those people aren't known for having a sense of humor or a flair for drama. Take them seriously.
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