Sapphire Rival 2 on +speed

Routing Rival 2 on +speed

The peculiarities of this fight are intriguing. Because you need to tank an Absorb before hitting your first Mud Shot (or else Absorb will heal off some of the damage you do), the fight is routed such that you must always be outsped turn 1 against Grovyle, and always outspeed it turn 2. Because Grovyle has 45 speed, this means 30 speed is the number to avoid at all costs for this fight, as it means risking a speedtie no matter what. 29 speed is fine, while 31 speed allows you to skip X Speed altogether (only possible on L19). This all depends on a number of factors, including the number of Zubats (if any) KOed in Granite Cave. The following table shows which IV spreads produce a Marshtomp with 30 speed at the given levels, depending on number of Zubats KOed (note that this is only possible on a +spe nature anyway).

Fig. 1: Shtomps with 30 speed
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| Level? | Zubats? | IV range |
|-----------------------------|
| L18    | 0-4     | 27+IV+   |
|-----------------------------|
| L18    | 5-8     | 26+IV+   |
|-----------------------------|
| L18    | 9+      | 25-30IV+ |
|-----------------------------|
| L19    | 0-2     | 21-25IV+ |
|-----------------------------|
| L19    | 3+      | 20-24IV+ |
 -----------------------------

L19 Zubat count includes the 2 speed EVs you would gain from fighting Youngster Timmy, as he is the fastest way to get L19 for Grovyle.

The decision of how to approach this problem is tangled in another strength of the high IV +speed Mudkip, namely the ability to outspeed TnL with few extra EVs.

Consider the following:
- 29+IV+ naturally outspeeds TnL with no extra EVs
- 28IV+ outspeeds TnL with 4 extra EVs
- 27IV+ outspeeds TnL with 8 extra EVs
- 26IV+ outspeeds TnL with 12 extra EVs
- 25IV+ outspeeds TnL with 16 extra EVs

Based on this, the following solutions could be applied which also solve the May 2 problem:
- 25+IV+ skips X Speed (save it for Wattson)
	> 29+IV+ always runs from Zubat, fights Timmy, and always skips Carbos
	> 28IV+ favors KOing 2 Zubats, fights Timmy, and skips Carbos if didn't get 2 more speed EVs
	> 26-27IV+ favors running from Zubats, fights Timmy, and takes Carbos
	> 25IV+ MUST KO 3-4 Zubats, fights Timmy, takes Carbos, and KOes an Electrike encounter later if no 4th Zubat
	  (to outspeed TnL)

The problem inherent to the lower end, 20-24IV+, is that fighting Timmy can give 30 speed depending on Zubat count, so if you fail to dodge him, he could put death just a coinflip away. Accounting for this:

- 20-24IV+ buys X Speed
	> 20IV+ KOes no more than 2 Zubats and tries to dodge Timmy (3+ Zubats + Timmy = 30 speed)
	> 21-24IV+ MUST dodge Timmy, as he always gives 30 speed. Unless you've got a deathwish (or killed 7+ Zubats),
	  menu manip that fucker.

Of note is that 19IV+ speed requires 7 Zubats + Timmy for 30 speed, so it's unlikely a runner would end up speedtied vs. May 2 with such a kip. It's also worth keeping in mind that L19 for Grovyle isn't just good from a speed perspective, but also improves the odds of 2HKOing and guarantees the 2HKO on 29+IVN attack.

The X Speed can instead be used on Wattson. 22+IV+ outspeeds Wattson's Magnemite, then after X Speeding on Voltorb you can sweep (34 is also the magic number to outspeed Voltorb at +1). This eliminates your chance of getting confused and saves HP. And where normally high HP would be bad against Brooke's Wingull as it causes him to Supersonic, you will also outspeed Wingull, meaning you can Full Heal off confusion after setting up X Attack and sweep safely.