setwd("/home/natalya/Документы/R/Labs/1")

#Считывание данных
milk <-read.table("milk.csv", header=T, sep = "")

names(milk)

#Строим график входного ряда
plot(milk$milk, type = "l")

milk.2 = log(milk$milk)

pred.n <- 11

n.obs <- length(milk.2)

plot(1:n.obs, milk.2, type = "l")

#Создание и заполнение матрицы данных отрезками ряда с добавлением времени (i - месяц)
size <- 168
g.2 <- matrix(rep(0, (size - 12)*14), nrow = size - 12, ncol = 14)

for (i in 1:(size - 12))
{
  g.2[[i,1]] <-  milk.2[i]
  g.2[[i,2]] <-  milk.2[i+1]
  g.2[[i,3]] <-  milk.2[i+2]
  g.2[[i,4]] <-  milk.2[i + 3]
  g.2[[i,5]] <-  milk.2[i+4]
  g.2[[i,6]] <-  milk.2[i+5]
  g.2[[i,7]] <-  milk.2[i+6]
  g.2[[i,8]] <-  milk.2[i+7]
  g.2[[i,9]] <-  milk.2[i+8]
  g.2[[i,10]] <- milk.2[i+9]
  g.2[[i,11]] <-  milk.2[i+10]
  g.2[[i,12]] <-  milk.2[i+11]
  g.2[[i,13]] <- i
}

i.seed <- 2

library(nnet)

set.seed(12345+i.seed)

g.net <- nnet(g.2[, 1:1], g.2[, 1], size = 6,
              linout = TRUE, rang=0.1, decay=0.001, maxit = 1000)

plot(1:size, milk.2, type = "l")
lines(13:size, g.net$fitted.values, col = "red")

g.forecast <- g.2[nrow(g.2), -1]

pred.1 <- rep(-9999, pred.n)

for (i in 1:pred.n)
{
  pred.1[i] <- predict(g.net, g.forecast, type = "raw")
  g.forecast <- c( g.forecast[-1], pred.1[i])
}

plot(1:size, exp(milk.2), type = "l", xlim = c(0, size+pred.n), ylim = c(500, 1000))
lines(1:(size-12), exp(g.net$fitted.values), col = "red")
lines((size-10):(size), exp(pred.1), col = "blue")

exp(pred.1)