baseball safe lead probability

z	#safe	#unsafe	pct-safe	erf(z)
0.239665	2080	3546	0.369712	0.2653431812584058
0.247041	4364	4924	0.469854	0.27318749609275167
0.255142	4997	5636	0.469952	0.28176993414027585
0.264097	5732	5693	0.501707	0.29121588535268245
0.274067	5463	5495	0.49854	0.30167998811284197
0.285258	5374	5171	0.509625	0.3133575849216676
0.297942	5377	4841	0.526228	0.32650311663709347
0.312484	5591	4388	0.560277	0.34145225909225885
0.329387	5572	4058	0.578609	0.3586582022915881
0.349368	5535	3636	0.603533	0.3787509987612155
0.37349	5555	3236	0.631896	0.40263573926352547
0.403416	5648	2789	0.669432	0.4316724833474215
0.44192	5661	2455	0.697511	0.4680087647210536
0.479329	1417	1284	0.524621	0.5021481425521008
0.494081	8459	3820	0.6889	0.5152830004441814
0.510285	3427	2174	0.611855	0.529491519991227
0.528195	4042	2197	0.64786	0.5449246879830358
0.548134	4272	2361	0.644052	0.5617658309964304
0.570516	10492	3843	0.731915	0.5802364114406778
0.595884	4937	2250	0.686935	0.6006077998281162
0.624969	5228	2072	0.716164	0.6232172132442342
0.658775	5204	2000	0.722376	0.6484818107924926
0.698736	11239	2823	0.799246	0.6769266493106268
0.718994	766	468	0.620746	0.6907566832020755
0.741122	1602	590	0.730839	0.7054096674826639
0.74698	5395	1620	0.769066	0.7092095832578407
0.765427	1968	774	0.717724	0.7209594786044269
0.792292	2339	824	0.739488	0.7374865092811133
0.806831	5515	1310	0.808059	0.746143119762291
0.822201	2844	1021	0.735834	0.7550762772593055
0.855774	3346	999	0.770081	0.7738159474843735
0.883839	5630	1102	0.836304	0.7886774747836023
0.893826	3625	1040	0.777063	0.7937918134236297
0.937453	4000	881	0.819504	0.8150803784684769
0.958658	418	133	0.758621	0.8248203665567104
0.988162	17569	2611	0.870614	0.8377283497858522
1.02057	1114	242	0.821534	0.8510651283061741
1.0481	4294	742	0.852661	0.8617228176652141
1.05639	1413	236	0.856883	0.8648142039364822
1.09627	1868	335	0.847935	0.8789448428684087
1.12047	4410	627	0.875521	0.8869390879034954
1.14103	7962	1006	0.887823	0.893398827235384
1.19177	2471	397	0.861576	0.9080919112842999
1.19832	197	49	0.800813	0.9098639334691062
1.21025	4609	495	0.903017	0.9130207328304071
1.2352	337	57	0.85533	0.9193343127829187
1.24994	2650	328	0.889859	0.9228859359247301
1.27571	485	104	0.82343	0.9287885034828518
1.31755	2939	338	0.896857	0.9375795191233202
1.32049	724	107	0.871239	0.9381619060932902
1.32576	4703	439	0.914625	0.9391945873932422
1.37033	1042	141	0.880812	0.9473693679199664
1.39747	9133	659	0.9327	0.9518815704175554
1.42629	1385	123	0.918435	0.9563126949665584
1.43799	64	10	0.864865	0.9580105767860878
1.48224	4992	295	0.944203	0.9639358938056448
1.48971	1605	127	0.926674	0.9648623128840805
1.49396	3337	273	0.924377	0.965380268744458
1.53085	268	30	0.899329	0.969608396001659
1.56242	1765	105	0.94385	0.9728667558562816
1.58458	420	35	0.923077	0.9749696836297542
1.61366	3604	188	0.950422	0.977514193416853
1.6444	603	45	0.930556	0.979956510886324
1.64694	2011	129	0.93972	0.9801475492420453
1.71155	5757	279	0.953777	0.9845007023099385
1.74684	2383	113	0.954728	0.9865039771498781
1.76768	3713	150	0.96117	0.9875763577732707
1.786	125	5	0.961538	0.9884560033865204
1.78765	930	49	0.949949	0.9885324483037858
1.84868	216	3	0.986301	0.991062308982178
1.86745	2517	109	0.958492	0.9917331721357162
1.87491	1110	47	0.959378	0.9919870380360354
1.91847	314	14	0.957317	0.9933348300881542
1.97632	11610	442	0.963326	0.9948090418449981
1.9968	432	20	0.955752	0.9952557058221733
2.01708	2679	73	0.973474	0.9956634362858897
2.04114	67	2	0.971014	0.996105807679887
2.08559	540	24	0.957447	0.9968168017765483
2.09621	6532	156	0.976675	0.9969681353508164
2.11278	115	5	0.958333	0.9971911889105842
2.18739	673	19	0.972543	0.9980214718007773
2.19253	171	3	0.982759	0.998069399073508
2.2096	2784	68	0.976157	0.9982210200604368
2.24094	1608	42	0.974545	0.998471238616359
2.28206	4242	98	0.977419	0.9987504445695298
2.30571	760	19	0.97561	0.9988888844395512
2.38354	331	7	0.97929	0.999250591613192
2.42049	1816	23	0.987493	0.9993808637681709
2.44558	904	11	0.987978	0.9994569537098407
2.4666	72	2	0.972973	0.9995138961620036
2.47041	2911	43	0.985443	0.9995236013763577
2.49987	405	11	0.973558	0.9995927647135543
2.56732	109	1	0.990909	0.9997173888743217
2.61443	1027	13	0.9875	0.9997821487340097
2.6351	522	12	0.977528	0.9998059154116442
2.65152	1896	22	0.98853	0.9998230353084603
2.68148	160	3	0.981595	0.9998506726283342
2.79494	4753	43	0.991034	0.9999227069844966
2.81236	235	0	1	0.9999302912470893
2.82391	1117	9	0.992007	0.9999349256322028
2.85258	3036	40	0.986996	0.999945201404263
2.96449	272	1	0.996337	0.9999724007966655
2.96449	7261	94	0.98722	0.9999724007966655
2.97942	76	1	0.987013	0.9999748596697264
2.98792	660	5	0.992481	0.9999761649505211
3.09344	1265	9	0.992936	0.9999878447669008
3.12484	122	1	0.99187	0.9999900928988031
3.14431	323	2	0.993846	0.9999912811005217
3.22732	747	4	0.994674	0.9999949840548011
3.29387	155	0	1	0.9999968106895356
3.36141	406	0	1	0.9999980032366786
3.42309	2169	12	0.994498	0.9999987079982033
3.43733	58	0	1	0.9999988327576904
3.45857	1383	2	0.998556	0.999998997548342
3.49368	3287	18	0.994554	0.9999992220116334
3.53536	824	2	0.997579	0.9999994259651185
3.62326	78	0	1	0.9999997009796877
3.63074	462	0	1	0.9999997173180294
3.7349	218	0	1	0.9999998721812865
3.84305	115	0	1	0.9999999451708081
3.95265	5244	33	0.993746	0.9999999772788117
3.97728	521	1	0.998084	0.9999999814194458
3.99361	1480	3	0.997977	0.9999999837502386
4.03415	266	0	1	0.9999999883759079
4.10839	130	0	1	0.9999999937579699
4.19242	2327	5	0.997856	0.9999999969517264
4.4192	298	0	1	0.9999999995887386
4.43757	161	0	1	0.9999999996518719
4.44673	617	1	0.998382	0.9999999996797116
4.48188	70	1	0.985915	0.9999999997677393
4.56413	973	1	0.998973	0.999999999891534
4.84099	94	1	0.989474	0.999999999992416
4.86111	183	0	1	0.9999999999937856
4.89115	1561	0	1	0.9999999999953911
4.94081	3626	15	0.99588	0.9999999999971989
5.13464	668	1	0.998505	0.9999999999996171
5.30303	105	1	0.990566	0.9999999999999359
5.43489	214	0	1	0.9999999999999848
5.58989	1083	0	1	0.9999999999999973
5.70516	402	0	1	0.9999999999999993
5.74495	61	0	1	0.9999999999999996
5.92897	2451	7	0.997152	1
6.27567	249	0	1	1
6.28863	760	0	1	1
6.42305	75	0	1	1
6.84619	155	0	1	1
6.91714	1698	1	0.999411	1
6.98736	487	0	1	1
7.4167	79	0	1	1
7.6861	289	0	1	1
7.9053	1177	0	1	1
7.98722	55	0	1	1
8.38483	165	0	1	1
8.89346	853	0	1	1
9.08357	103	0	1	1
9.78231	59	0	1	1
9.88162	503	0	1	1
10.8698	324	0	1	1
11.8579	190	0	1	1
12.8461	123	0	1	1
13.8343	68	0	1	1